Tarifas mais baixas levam FMI a melhorar projeções para economia mundial

[Tiger]

(Adds JP Morgan estimate change, updates share price)
By Noah Barkin and Emma Ross-Thomas
PARIS/MADRID, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Tobacco group Altadis
posted a 13.7 percent drop in first-half net profit on
Tuesday, hit by charges and a fall in French cigarette sales,
and gave what some analysts said was a more cautious outlook.
Net profit for the sellers of France's Gauloise cigarettes
and Montecristo Cuban cigars came in at 190 million euros ($229
million), compared to a Reuters poll forecast of 208 million.
The closely-watched earnings before interest, tax,
depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose 5.8 percent to 518
million euros, boosted by a Moroccan acquisition and growth in
cigar sales.
EBITDA slightly topped the average forecast of 515 million
euros from the Reuters poll of 10 analysts and was toward the
higher end of a range of estimates from 487 million to 533
million euros.
The stock initially fell two percent, which analysts
attributed to the Franco-Spanish company's forecast for
full-year EBITDA growth of 4 to 6 percent. The firm had forecast
in May "significant growth" in 2004 EBITDA.
"Some people will think that significant is somewhat higher
than 4 to 6 percent," said Javier Mata, analyst at Banesto Bolsa
in Madrid.
By 1440 GMT the stock had trimmed its losses to stand off
0.39 percent at 25.50 euros in Madrid against a 0.22 percent
gain in the index of leading Spanish shares <.IBEX>.
Several stock-watchers said they would revise their
forecasts and JP Morgan analyst Michael Smith cut his full year
EBITDA estimate by 3 percent and earnings per share, before
amortisation and one-offs, by 4 percent.
"Our numbers now forecast flat EBITDA year-on-year compared
to management guidance of 4-6 percent," Smith said.
Others said they had already been expecting full year EBITDA
growth of around five percent, in line with the new company
forecast.
First-half results received a boost from the firm's Moroccan
tobacco unit Regie des Tabacs (RTM). As it was consolidated from
last year's third quarter, growth comparisons become harder from
this July.
"For full year the consensus at the moment is for 1.129
billion euros (4.7 percent growth), and they're pointing us to
around 1.135 (5.3 percent)," said David Ireland, analyst at ABN
Amro.

FRANCE WEAK
The company's French cigarette sales declined 19.1 percent
to 110 million euros during the period, hit by a government
decision to raise tobacco taxes.
Altadis said the tax increases had led to a 24 percent drop
in market volumes during the first six months of the year.
"Successive increases in retail prices since October 2003
(up 30 percent overall) have had a major effect on the behaviour
of smokers," the company said.
Also weighing on the first half figures was a rise in
goodwill charges to 81 million euros from 46 million.
These factors were partially offset by the incorporation of
RTM, strong gains in the Middle East and robust cigar sales in
the United States.
Altadis said revenues for the first six months of the year
rose 6.4 percent to 1.695 billion euros.
Altadis, which recently bought Russia's Balkan Star and
Italian tobacco distribution firm Etinera, is engaged in a
restructuring process in which it will close 9 plants in France
and Spain over 2004 and 2005.
Shares in Altadis had climbed 16 percent this year going
into Tuesday's session, outperforming the DJ Stoxx non-cyclical
stocks index <.SXHP> by 14 percent.
((Reporting by Noah Barkin, Emma Ross-Thomas, Caroline
Brothers, editing by Anthony Barker/Rory Channing; Reuters
Messaging: rm://noah.barkin.reuters.com@reuters.net; Email:
noah.barkin@reuters.com; Telephone: +33 1 49 49 53 62))
($1=.8279 Euro)