Guy Villax culpa baixo preço dos genéricos por ruturas de "stock" nas farmácias

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Market Plays a Ground Game on Good Earnings"

By James J. Cramer
01/16/2003 08:52 AM EST

"Let's say Microsoft and IBM report good earnings. What will you do?

Think about it; if IBM's really terrific, won't people say the move from $74 to $88 encompassed that really good number? Can Microsoft really outrun the players in its industry, including partner Intel and customers Dell, Gateway and Hewlett-Packard?


I was struck Wednesday by the overall lack of enthusiasm for whatever company reported, from Intel to Bank of America to last night's Yahoo!. All of them were, frankly, not that bad. Bank of America seems to be raking in the money. And if a year ago if you had told me Yahoo! could be in this good a shape, I would have told you that we you were either foolish or wrong. There is no way that such a broken company can be turned around so quickly. Intel? I know a Kurlak vs. the world scene erupted here Wednesday, but we can at least agree that much of it was the sideshow of capital equipment. Intel's in a position to make some pretty good money now.

So why didn't we go up Wednesday? I think that's the wrong question, frankly. Given all of the things going wrong in the world right now, I think it's more important to ask whether these fundamentals are good enough right now to pay more for.

And for that, I think the answer is a resounding no.

Think about it; all of the macro reasons that stimulated us into buying stocks now are muted:

Lower inflation. We've got that in spades.
Peace in our time. We've lost that in spades.
Lower interest rates. They've gone as low as they can go.
Full employment. Kind of history these days. All of those reasons to put money to work are behind us. Given the abysmal backdrop, I think it's terrific that these big-cap stocks can hold their gains from the beginning of the year.

If this is a year we can make 10% in the stock market, that 10% will consist of small runs in stocks that then are met with fundamentals that justify those small runs. That's what I think is going on in the IBMs and Intels and Bank of Americas and Microsofts. These are ground game gains in a football game where the forward pass once dominated. To belabor the metaphor, just think that we should be glad that we keep the ball on the ground; for the last three years, the defense relentlessly has picked off the ball and run it back against the bulls.

Maybe we should be grateful that the ball can be advanced at all! "

(in www.realmoney.com)