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[alex01]

Market Force: Bullish/Neutral. Watch for rallies today to become exhausted and pull back from the highs.

ESU04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Thursday, August 26, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 13.70 Value Area
Range: 9.60 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,109.25-1,108.25 Sell Pivot
1,106.50
High 1,106.50
Close 1,103.80
Open 1,097.20
1,096.90
1,095.50-1,096.50 Buy Pivot
Low 1,092.80
1,087.20 Pit Bull MA



Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, August 25, 2004:
S@1094.75/B@1098.25 -3.50

Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Thursday's trading action.

Wednesday saw a decent bullish BreakOut above the Hour One highs that occured later mid morning. All morning the High 5 and prices had been exhibiting bearish characteristics which later turned around in a strong bullish fashion.

Here are my closing Wrap Up comments for Wednesday's trade.

"On today's Morning Call Headline we were looking for a move outside of the current range in a larger scale move one way or the other.

We had strategies for viewing either one based on how the High 5 readings looked and the chart patterns.

We got short mid morning at 1094.75 when the market opened at the 1097.00 area, put in a high and fell off lower. On a reflex bounce we wanted to get short looking for the lows to be taken out with a weak High Five.

The market sat just above our short entry for some time and we patiently waited but prices started pushing higher. Just above the Hour One high of 1097.25 we had a plan to exit which we followed at 1098.25 for a -3.50 loss.

There really was not a clear definition in the charts or High 5 for getting long other than we had hit the highs. Under most circumstances following our system we would have looked to go short again above the BreakOut at 1097.25 maybe adding 2-3 points. This would have been the regular approach.

So with our Headline Call in mind but NOT seeing a reason in the tape for a Bullish BreakOut we stood aside instead. Although prices broke out and ran up as high as 1106 later in the session we still simply followed our system and at the same time avoided Re-entering short which ended up to our advantage."

Today's Call & Briefing:
Today we are going to be looking for any rallies that get going during the mid morning session to pull back off the highs and consolidate.

If we get lower, early prices that run down to the Hour One lows after the first hour is complete then we would be looking for a buy opportunity for one more push up today.

If the push for higher prices comes in off of the opening and during the first hour then we will be looking for some follow through going into the mid morning session as discussed.

Should that occur we will be looking for find the exhaustion spot and scalp a short trade.

It appears that we may have moved into a longer term bullish period underlying the last quarter coming up.

If that is to occur then we will see our indicators setting up to show the Highs getting exhausted with pullbacks off of those highs BUT they will be relatively shallow and the markets will continue higher.

I am not sure this is going to be the case yet as we are already getting close now to the rollover period from a Buy Mode to a Sell Mode. When that occurs ( which should be after one more strong rally day or 2) we then start monitoring if we are going to get an Aberration on that new Sell Mode we are rolling into.

If that is the case usually it is pretty apparent in the readings and I can interpret the calls accordingly.

For today though, let's watch for one more day up and look to stay on the buy side of any lower, early moves but be ready to Sell into an overcooked, temporarily exhausted rally up above 1108 and probably near 1113.00 on the upside.

Value Area: 1,096.90 - 1,106.50
Trade above 1106.50 that pulls back into the Value Area is a sign of weakness and being short with such a move should work out as the later longs are taken out first.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,095.50 - 1,096.50
Watch for a possible Buy down here in correlation with the Hour One low.

We will be watching the Hour One low to get hit first today and be a buying opportunity. It may tie in with this price zone.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,109.25 - 1,108.25
Here is that 1108.00 area I have been talking about.

Add the +4.25 stop/pivot to the top of this Sell Pivot target and we have 1113.50 which is where I had mentioned earlier about a strong resistance point.

We can probably look for a Sell up in that area.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,087.20
We are still holding out for buying strong dips above this number.

You can see how this 10 Day Pit Bull helps keep a focus on the short term trend. Our method involves buying dips into the current trade environment and then looking to Sell exhausted moves for pullbacks within the context of the overall Buy 10 day MA trend we are in.

Pro Trader's Action
We are looking for one more day up today but it should be a more mild up day.

Lower, early moves at the Hour One low most likely will be a buying opportunity for us today right at or near the Hour One pivot IF that is the first pivot hit.

If we move higher off the opening and rally FIRST hitting the Hour One high and attempting to rally off of that then we are going to be Selling above that area for a scalp short.

Good Luck with your trades today and I'll be crunching the numbers in the action. Mohan