Acordo comercial UE-EUA: O que se sabe e as principais reações em 10 perguntas e respostas

[Dwer]

Market Force: Bullish/Neutral. Look for continued rally today but expect the rally highs to pull back substantially.


Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, August 11, 2004:
B@1070.00/S@1072.00 +4.00

Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Our Headline Call panned out almost exactly as we had described the market action the night before.

Trading was a bit difficult with the High 5 extremely bearish with the TRIN over 1.40 most of the day, Nasdaq down hard along with the Dow and VIX/VXO over +.50. However, the Market Force Indicators took precedent and we rallied off the lows.

Here are my Wrap Up comments on our Live Update Service describing how we handled the action.

"I had given 2 clear scenarios that we were going to be watching for in order to determine how to trade today's action.

We got the primary one I wanted which was for an early, washout type sell off. This occured with the lows coming in just one tick above our Buy Pivot Target -4.25 stop/pivot at 1065.00 at 1065.25.

Seeing the Trailblazer setup on the charts I wanted to get long even in the face of an extremely Bearish High 5 which I expected was overcooked. With the lower early move in place I was going to be looking for a rally, some consolidation and then higher prices into the close to confirm the new Buy Mode we are in.

Well, we got long at 1067.75 and prices took off nicely upside with some strong buying coming in on talk of Saudi Arabia saying they would supply all the oil needed to keep prices lower.

Prices peaked out on that run above the Hour One high (1071.50) at 1075.00. I had moved the stop up to 1069.00 on the long expecting things to keep gradually moving up. Prices started pulling back after the Saudi message was in the news and surprisingly missed our stop by 1 TICK.

All traders who have been around know there is a lot of luck in this business.

Anyway, we moved up from there fortunately and after seeing the way the prices were handling the trading environment Plus the fact that the High 5 had not improved much I decided to get us out at 1072.00 for a +4.00 pts profit and cut our risk on the day.

Later the market moved all over the place as traders juggled ideas eventually heading back down to those lows, finding support and as expected, moving higher into the close tapping 1077.25 at the highs."

Today's Call & Briefing:
Today we are going to be looking for a bit more rally action expecting the prices to run up and test the Pit Bull area near 1085.00 possibly.

This will be the first formidable obstacle to higher prices and I think we will drop back from there today IF we can make it that high.

With this in mind we would want to look to Sell the Hour One high plus a few points depending on how the High 5 look. I will be monitoring the trade on our daily Live Update Service using Trailblazer, Market Profile and other tools to get us in ideally at the right time.

TRY MY LIVE UPDATE SERVICE FREE FOR A WEEK...Call (800)806-4801 to request a Free trial and learn how to trade using our methods.

Now, if we get a flat to lower opening and an early pullback this will be the most ideal for "feeding" a further bullish rally. We would look to Buy the Hour One BreakDown if that is the first Hour One pivot hit AND still be monitoring the Hour One high to look to sell at a price above that later in the session.

We would wait for the Hour One high to move a few points higher IF the High 5 is bullish. Watch for resistance at the numbers discussed below.

Value Area: 1,069.70 - 1,076.70
If prices cross over the 1077.00 area to the upside that is a bullish sign.

Later depending on how high we move up we would look for 1077 to be support if we get up near the Pit Bull 1085 zone.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,068.25 - 1,069.25
This is an price area we would watch in combination with the Hour One low for support now. -4.25 stop/pivot at 1064.00 is stronger support below this but I expect 1069 to hold up today.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,080.25 - 1,079.25
First leg up should reach this 1080 area and then we have the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1084.50 just under the Pit Bull which should give this zone of 1084-85.00 the prime resistance area.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,085.90
If we can hold just at 1085.00 or slighly under that we should be on the lookout for a pullback later in the session.

The only thing that would throw that off would be if we see the High Five showing extremely bullish characteristics.

THERE IS THIS POSSIBILITY TODAY...of a really strong turn around bullish rally with the High 5 really Mega Bullish after yesterday's higher price move off the lows with A MEGA BEARISH HIGH 5.

Pro Trader's Action
The main things to watch for today are a further rally, whether the High 5 is MEGA BULLISH and suggesting a strong BreakOut rally OR a rally just a few points above the B/O that fizzles out later in the session.

The later case is the one we expect as primary but just be alert to see that the High 5 is Mega Bullish or just mildly bullish in which case we want to fade the rally.

I know this can often be difficult and a mildly bullish tape can turn mega bullish but also vice versa.

We are expecting a rally today to fade out according to our Market Force indicators so we most likely will be shorting.

Good luck with your trades today and I'll see you in the action.

Be sure to sign up for your Free Trial Week on my new Live Update Service.

All the best, Mohan