Mohan 03/08/04
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Mohan 03/08/04
Market Force: Bearish. Market expected to show weakness after any early rallies or higher price moves.
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, August 2, 2004:
1) S@1100.75/B@1103.00 -2.25
2)S@1103.75/B@1105.50 -1.75
TOTAL: -4.00
Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.
Monday started out with a large scale terror drill by the news media which failed to stall the markets yet gave the indexes a bearish appearance.
In spite of this prices pushed higher all day moving above the Hour One high and holding above it all throughout the session. Here are my closing comments on our Live Update Service.
"We came into the market today with the Market Force indicators Bearish but also anticipating one more mild day up before a stronger pullback would occur.
Usually on these type of days getting short on early rallies pans out well. We had an early run towards the Hour One pivot at 1100.50 on a clear Trailblazer 3rd Level move with a bearish overall High 5 except for advancing issues above decliners (but not significantly).
We got short at 1100.75 with our recommendation and saw the market fall back to 1098.00 and stall in a tight range. We looked at 1103.00 as a spot where we did not want to see prices rise to for staying short.
We covered the short at 1103.00 for a -2.25 loss with the goal of getting short at a higher level just above 1104.00. Prices pushed higher and we put out a signal to get short with average fills coming in at 1103.75.
We held short through a spike higher move to 1106.50 and then a pullback to 1102.50 on the lows where we were looking for continued erosion. Support came in and during the course of the session prices pushed back up near the highs and we got out with a -1.75 loss.
It was an usual day with the market rallying with a high TRIN above 1.10 and a very weak Nasdaq. This could be part of an attempt by the market,inspite of the negative news, to make a breakout move towards the 1121.00 area we discussed a few days ago. I expect we will find resistance near 1112.00 on any rallies."
Today's Call & Briefing:
From tracking our Day to Day Sequencing patterns it appears the market will be ready today to start showing more weakness on any early rallies or higher price movements.
The way we want to trade em today is to look for another move above the BreakOut that tries to press higher like yesterday but finds the resistance spot and starts to sell off.
Today could be a potential longer term short held into the later part of the session IF we get the higher movement early described above.
If prices take off to the downside FIRST and test the lows then we would look for some temporary support to come in and create a bounce off the lows with a neutral settlement for the day.
Overall if we get higher prices early we will be looking to Sell the BreakOut of the Hour One high and look for the larger scale pullback if the High 5 are not Mega Bullish.
Upon hitting the Hour One low first we will be looking for Trailblazer Level 3 liquidation moves to catch the drop and trade for the reflex bounce.
Value Area: 1,099.50 - 1,108.30
I am expecting the 1112.00 area to cap off any early rallies. Trading above 1108.30 is bullish but most likely we will pull back into the Value Area which would be a bearish sign.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,098.00 - 1,099.00
We would need to compare this price area to the Hour One low to discover if there is any correlation.
Better support lower will be at 1093.75 which is support from last Thursday however an early rally that we get short into near 1108 or higher could find support directly at these numbers. We will be watching for that.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,110.75 - 1,109.75
This is an important area of resistance for today and above this is the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1115.00.
There is this 1112.00 number that is also resistance so overall this 1110-1112.00 is expected to hold back the buying today.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,096.00
The Pit Bull demonstated on Monday that it is showing support.
If we get the higher early move as expected then we need to carefully watch this area for support on any shorts we try and hold for the longer term.
Pro Trader's Action
Monday's higher day finished off an important upside pattern in the Day to Day Sequencing work I do. Now the key is to see if we can cap off any early rallies by not having a Mega Bullish High 5.
As mentioned on yesterday's Morning Call I had warned about the possibility for Monday being the start of a higher run up towards 1121.00 with a new mini bullish phase. I bring all of this up as it is what I read in the Market Force indicators and not as a hedge on the Headline Call or anything.
Now we see that, indeed, even with a Bearish High 5 the market was committed to rallying on Monday some. Now the key is to see rallies stalling and the sell side taking prominence when we get short.
If we find prices hanging up near the highs and not seeing the indexes roll to bearish if we are able to get short then we need to apply the same methods as yesterday in keeping stop losses tight.
In futures trading, and especially the S&P500, the key is to maintain capital in the difficult times and when the market is moving in more clearly defined patterns the points will build up.
Let's look for today to favor the short side especially on any higher openings and early higher moves.
Good Luck and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, August 2, 2004:
1) S@1100.75/B@1103.00 -2.25
2)S@1103.75/B@1105.50 -1.75
TOTAL: -4.00
Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.
Monday started out with a large scale terror drill by the news media which failed to stall the markets yet gave the indexes a bearish appearance.
In spite of this prices pushed higher all day moving above the Hour One high and holding above it all throughout the session. Here are my closing comments on our Live Update Service.
"We came into the market today with the Market Force indicators Bearish but also anticipating one more mild day up before a stronger pullback would occur.
Usually on these type of days getting short on early rallies pans out well. We had an early run towards the Hour One pivot at 1100.50 on a clear Trailblazer 3rd Level move with a bearish overall High 5 except for advancing issues above decliners (but not significantly).
We got short at 1100.75 with our recommendation and saw the market fall back to 1098.00 and stall in a tight range. We looked at 1103.00 as a spot where we did not want to see prices rise to for staying short.
We covered the short at 1103.00 for a -2.25 loss with the goal of getting short at a higher level just above 1104.00. Prices pushed higher and we put out a signal to get short with average fills coming in at 1103.75.
We held short through a spike higher move to 1106.50 and then a pullback to 1102.50 on the lows where we were looking for continued erosion. Support came in and during the course of the session prices pushed back up near the highs and we got out with a -1.75 loss.
It was an usual day with the market rallying with a high TRIN above 1.10 and a very weak Nasdaq. This could be part of an attempt by the market,inspite of the negative news, to make a breakout move towards the 1121.00 area we discussed a few days ago. I expect we will find resistance near 1112.00 on any rallies."
Today's Call & Briefing:
From tracking our Day to Day Sequencing patterns it appears the market will be ready today to start showing more weakness on any early rallies or higher price movements.
The way we want to trade em today is to look for another move above the BreakOut that tries to press higher like yesterday but finds the resistance spot and starts to sell off.
Today could be a potential longer term short held into the later part of the session IF we get the higher movement early described above.
If prices take off to the downside FIRST and test the lows then we would look for some temporary support to come in and create a bounce off the lows with a neutral settlement for the day.
Overall if we get higher prices early we will be looking to Sell the BreakOut of the Hour One high and look for the larger scale pullback if the High 5 are not Mega Bullish.
Upon hitting the Hour One low first we will be looking for Trailblazer Level 3 liquidation moves to catch the drop and trade for the reflex bounce.
Value Area: 1,099.50 - 1,108.30
I am expecting the 1112.00 area to cap off any early rallies. Trading above 1108.30 is bullish but most likely we will pull back into the Value Area which would be a bearish sign.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,098.00 - 1,099.00
We would need to compare this price area to the Hour One low to discover if there is any correlation.
Better support lower will be at 1093.75 which is support from last Thursday however an early rally that we get short into near 1108 or higher could find support directly at these numbers. We will be watching for that.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,110.75 - 1,109.75
This is an important area of resistance for today and above this is the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1115.00.
There is this 1112.00 number that is also resistance so overall this 1110-1112.00 is expected to hold back the buying today.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,096.00
The Pit Bull demonstated on Monday that it is showing support.
If we get the higher early move as expected then we need to carefully watch this area for support on any shorts we try and hold for the longer term.
Pro Trader's Action
Monday's higher day finished off an important upside pattern in the Day to Day Sequencing work I do. Now the key is to see if we can cap off any early rallies by not having a Mega Bullish High 5.
As mentioned on yesterday's Morning Call I had warned about the possibility for Monday being the start of a higher run up towards 1121.00 with a new mini bullish phase. I bring all of this up as it is what I read in the Market Force indicators and not as a hedge on the Headline Call or anything.
Now we see that, indeed, even with a Bearish High 5 the market was committed to rallying on Monday some. Now the key is to see rallies stalling and the sell side taking prominence when we get short.
If we find prices hanging up near the highs and not seeing the indexes roll to bearish if we are able to get short then we need to apply the same methods as yesterday in keeping stop losses tight.
In futures trading, and especially the S&P500, the key is to maintain capital in the difficult times and when the market is moving in more clearly defined patterns the points will build up.
Let's look for today to favor the short side especially on any higher openings and early higher moves.
Good Luck and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
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Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
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