Price Headleys Big Trend Watch
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Price Headleys Big Trend Watch
As this Friday marks the expiration of January stock and index options, this is the
time we like to look at the open interest in the Nasdaq 100 Trust (QQQ - 26.93) for
any important patterns. Last month the QQQ open interest theory nailed the fact that
we would stay stuck in a trading range between 24 and 25 in the final week (click
here to see details).
Looking at this month's open interest configuration in the Q's in the table below, we
see a similar battle going on between the 26 and 27 zones. With the largest January
call open interest at the 27 strike, it explains why the market had so much trouble
after the early attempted rally Monday morning, as the bias is for the QQQ not to
close over 27 to keep these calls from going into the money. Likewise, the biggest
put open interest in January is at the 26 strike so the market is not likely to fall
below 26 at Friday's close either.
While this sets up a potentially dull trading week as we chop between these two
strike prices, remember that a break on closing basis more than 50 cents above 27
would be a bullish breakout while a close under 25.50 would signify further weakness
due to the breakdown of the supportive 26 strike price. Option traders who tend to
want to buy the last-week options as a speculative play are generally better served
to sell both sides and watch the premiums collapse in the final days when the QQQ is
hemmed in between strikes like it is currently.
time we like to look at the open interest in the Nasdaq 100 Trust (QQQ - 26.93) for
any important patterns. Last month the QQQ open interest theory nailed the fact that
we would stay stuck in a trading range between 24 and 25 in the final week (click
here to see details).
Looking at this month's open interest configuration in the Q's in the table below, we
see a similar battle going on between the 26 and 27 zones. With the largest January
call open interest at the 27 strike, it explains why the market had so much trouble
after the early attempted rally Monday morning, as the bias is for the QQQ not to
close over 27 to keep these calls from going into the money. Likewise, the biggest
put open interest in January is at the 26 strike so the market is not likely to fall
below 26 at Friday's close either.
While this sets up a potentially dull trading week as we chop between these two
strike prices, remember that a break on closing basis more than 50 cents above 27
would be a bullish breakout while a close under 25.50 would signify further weakness
due to the breakdown of the supportive 26 strike price. Option traders who tend to
want to buy the last-week options as a speculative play are generally better served
to sell both sides and watch the premiums collapse in the final days when the QQQ is
hemmed in between strikes like it is currently.
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|Página 1 de 1
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