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[Dwer]

Market Force: Neutral/Bullish. Look for market to bounce off the lows today and sustain the upper third of the range into the close.

Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, July 7, 2004:
1) S1117.50/B1115.75 +1.75

2)B1115.75/S1116.50 +.75

3)S@1116.75/B@1120.00 -3.25

4) S@1119.00/B@1117.25 +1.25

TOTAL: +.50

Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.

Wednesday was another low range day that closely followed our script outlined on the Morning Call briefing. Due to the low range it was a bit difficult to trade as market see sawed from the lows to highs back to lows then closing neutral as expected. Here are my closing comments on Wednesday's Live Update Service.

"We had a busy day today trading the small range in a market situation where no Hour One pivots were initially hit until later in the session.

We got short on a recommendation at 1117.50 and saw the market stall just above the BreakDown at 1114.00 in the 1115.00 area. We covered that short at 1115.75 for a +1.75 profit.

We then turned and bought em there at the same price as exit but the upside appeared limited at that time and we were expecting them to pull back more so we got out of the 1115.75 long at 1116.50 for a .75 profit and got short at 1116.75.

The market had seen a mid session bottom at 1115.00 and they started to swing to the upside. Our stop got hit on a fast, spike move up to 1120.00 which was the BreakOut Hour One high for a -3.25 loss.

On our last trade we wanted to Sell the BreakOut which was our original idea we discussed on today's posts and now there we were. Problem was it was near the cut off time of 1:30 est for taking Pivot trades. I got us short on a recommendation at 1119.00 lagging the exact B/O as prices had clipped it and pulled right back.

Later the pressure was on us as they moved em up to our "uncle point" of 1121.00 and HELD there. After some extreme patience you held short with me and they finally broke pressing below 1118.00 as suggested and nailing the 1116.50 area we called as a goal.

I held em and on the second stab below 1117.00 I put out the signal to cover and fills came in around 1117.75 on a green candle spike up. So we showed +1.25 on that which was nice considering how close we came to having to eat 2.50 on that previous trade.

So on balance Up +.50 on a rare 4 trade day. Market followed our exact script today pulling back off the Highs and giving us a flat Dow."

Today's Call & Briefing:
Today we are expecting the market to start turning around and closing higher off of the lows.

We had held short yesterday in a very intense hold as prices hung up at 1121.00. They finally collapsed to the 1116-17.00 area. Right after the close however, they squashed em down hard to 1110.00 and overnight they've recovered some.

The key for today will be to see if we get a lower gap opening under 1118.00, find support and then see prices HOLD ABOVE THE OPENING.

If this scenario occurs with the High 5 and tape Bearish/Neutral or better looking then we should see a BreakOut to the upside. That is what we are going to be mostly looking for and playing the trade for if we get the right setup.

The only alternative I can see right now would be if they go Bear Ugly again (like last Thursday) and get pounded right off the opening.

There is an important lower number at 1107.25 showing up just below 1110-11.00 and this should support the market for today for a higher lift off these lows.

If the Hour One low is the first pivot hit then be prepared to Buy Em!

If we get the Hour One High hitting first and the High 5 are fairly bullish with prices hanging up near the highs then we got to close our eyes and get LONG.Prices should slowly grind higher similar to yesterday when they went up to 1121 area but should continue to pop up higher.

Value Area: 1,116.20 - 1,119.60
If we do open lower and then return to this VA watch for prices to move above 1119.60. We are going higher if we can accomplish this.

If so a trip back to 1122.50 would be in the cards and then 1125.50-26.50 which would challenge the +4.25 stop/pivot on the Sell Pivot target.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,114.25 - 1,115.25
No trade at this Buy Pivot target today as it appears from overnite Globex they are going to open em lower.

1110.00 is the -4.25 stop/pivot and so far overnight that is the EXACT LOW. We can use this number today to gauge the opening and support for a higher move up if the market is ready to turn up as we expect.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,122.00 - 1,121.00
This area is where they got stuck yesterday as we shorted at 1119.00. They finally cracked and moved to 1116.00. Just after the close they smoked em down to 1111.00 on an earnings report I expect.

So now either 1110.00 overnight low holds and they run em up from here (if you recall I gave you 1111.00 as first goal lower on Tuesday) or 1107.25 should hold up the selling.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,131.40
We are still way below this and the gap is widening. With our work showing a very possible turn around today to the upside we may be on the verge of closing this gap a bit and running em back up to this area again.

I rather expect however that it is only a temporary reversal and we are going to see 1101.00 which is a major goal lower. If we take out 1110.00 we will be getting awfully close to that today.

Pro Trader's Action
We want to look to get on the buy side today of either Hour One pivot that hits today UNLESS the High Five is Mega Bearish on the BreakDown.

Still we would look for the lows to hold unless there is some really bad news. It appears they are going to stop the terror drill for a while until the elections are over and probably even spring some "surprise good news" on us to favor the current administration. It's an old political trick but it still works as long as the public remains gullible.

We are in a seasonally favorable period for a "Summer Rally" and we may be on the verge of starting one here soon if we can hit our downside support and hold above it. Overnight 1110-11.00 as projected may have been it.

Will look forward to finding out today.

I'll see you in the action. Mohan