"TAP não sobrevive se se mantiver pública", garante Pinto Luz

[Info.]

isto ontinua a ser uma semi falsa questão... a de carência pelo lado da oferta.... mesmo considerando o boom de procura da China... e a procura provocada pela dita recuperação económica mundial......

continuo a dizer o mesmo:
- a capacidade de refinação nos países ocidentais está quase engasgada com tanto petróleo que lhes chega. Se a questão é a procura ter aumentado.. porque é que os governos e empresas refinadoras não tomaram as devidas medidas em aumentar a sua capacidade de refinação?

- por mais que os States tentem desviar as atenções de que o preço está alto só porque não se coloca no mercado petróleo suficiente... o facto é que aquilo tem muitos $$ de empolamento devido ao "terror fear"..uns dizem que são $5, outros 8 outros 11... e esse tem sido empolado pela "técnica bushido-irakido"... e não é coisa somente de especulação nos futuros do petróleo.

Como diz o outro... talvez se a "trafulhice" das eleições americanas não dessem para a subida ao poleiro de quem lá está isto fosse diferente... ou talvez não


Cump.

[Ulisses Pereira]

Uma coisa é certa: O "trade" de abrir uma posição curta no petróleo antes da reunião era óbvio demais e via muita gente a fazer essa entrada na expectativa de um alargamento de produção. Não podia resultar com tanta gente do mesmo lado.

Aliás, uma das grandes questões que me parece preocupante, é que vejo toda a gente a "shortar" (ou pelo menos a pensar nisso) e mal sai uma notícia ligieiramente má, há lá um forte "short covering" que faz disparar o preço. Não sei mesmo até quando isto poderá durar, mas "shortar" o petróleo antes dele mostrar fraqueza parece-me arrojado demais.

ABraços e beijos,
Ulisses

[Pata-Hari]

É a frase "They will be cautious and take maybe two-to-three months to introduce it just to make sure it's not going to damage the market too much." que não me parece fazer muito sentido. Sempre foi dito que o preço que interessa à OPEP manter anda à volta dos 25/30 dolares. Ora estamos tão longe disso, que a probabilidade de causar danos aos objectivos deles é neste momento muito diminuta.

[MSM]

Crude Oil Rises on Concern OPEC Output Increase May Take Weeks
June 3 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures rose as much as 1.5 percent in New York on concern increased production pledged by some OPEC members to ease fuel shortages may take several weeks to reach markets.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, source of more than a third of the world's oil, may agree today to raise supply by 1 million barrels a day to stem price gains that may slow a global economic recovery, Kuwait's oil minister said yesterday.

``An increase in quotas is widely expected, but will be quite limited in price impact,'' said Frederic Lasserre, head of commodities research at SG Economic Research in Paris. ``They will be cautious and take maybe two-to-three months to introduce it just to make sure it's not going to damage the market too much.''

Crude oil for July delivery rose as much as 89 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $40.85 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded at $40.80 at 3:05 p.m. Singapore time. The contract fell 5.6 percent yesterday after Qatar energy minister, Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, said OPEC should pump as much as possible to lower prices.

In London, the July Brent crude-oil futures contract rose as much as 64 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $37.50 a barrel in after- hours electronic trading on the International Petroleum Exchange. The contract fell 5.7 percent to $36.86 a barrel yesterday.

``Whatever they say, the market's just as likely to rally,'' said Mike Armbruster, co-founder of Altavest Worldwide Trading Inc. in San Juan Capistrano, California. ``There will be a big break somewhere, but I don't think it will be next week.''

Stabilize

July crude oil yesterday fell $2.37 to settle at $39.96 a barrel, the largest decline since Nov. 24. Prices jumped 6.1 percent to $42.33 a barrel on Tuesday, the highest close since trading began in 1983, after gunmen attacked a housing compound containing oil workers in Saudi Arabia, killing 22 people.

OPEC will add as much as 1 million barrels of production in June to lower oil prices, Sheikh Ahmad Fahd al-Ahmad al-Sabah, Kuwait's oil minister, said in Beirut yesterday. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates will add the extra barrels, al-Sabah said.

``We have to increase our production to stabilize the market,'' al-Sabah said. ``The new production should bring the price down slowly over the next two weeks by $6 to $8 a barrel.'' Venezuela and Indonesia are producing 500,000 barrels a day less than their combined quota, the minister said.

A series of attacks in the Middle East has boosted concern about the security of oil supplies from the region. Prices were already high amid concern U.S. gasoline stockpiles were not growing fast enough to meet peak summer driving demand.

Attacks

On Saturday, terrorists attacked a compound that houses foreign oil workers in Khobar, Saudi Arabia, killing 22. Last month, five ABB Ltd. employees were killed at a petrochemical plant in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia.

``There are speculations terrorism is affecting the world production and that is not true,'' said Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi. ``I can assure you the oil facilities in Saudi Arabia are secure. How we can convince the speculators is another matter.''

The 10 OPEC members, excluding Iraq, that participate in the quota system probably pumped 26.35 million barrels of oil in May, 2.85 million more than the quota, according to Geneva-based consultant PetroLogistics Ltd.

U.S. Inventories

``Most members are producing at capacity so it's not clear how much oil will actually be available,'' said Tom Bentz, a broker with BNP Paribas Futures Inc. in New York.

Gasoline for July delivery rose 0.77 cent, or 0.6 percent, to $1.2900 a gallon in after-hours trading. The contract plunged 7.07 cents, or 5.2 percent, to $1.2823 a gallon yesterday, the biggest decline since Jan. 15 and the lowest closing price for a front-month contract since May 3.

U.S. gasoline supplies probably rose 1.45 million barrels from 203 million barrels in the week ended May 21, based on the median estimate of 12 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Supplies the week before were 1 percent lower than the previous year.

Crude oil supplies probably gained 1.1 million barrels from 298.9 million barrels last week, according to the survey. Stockpiles in the week ending May 21 were 4.4 percent higher than a year earlier.

``I don't think inventories will make much difference this week,'' Armbruster said. ``Over time, if we get some builds'' that will help lower prices, he said.

The Energy Department will release its weekly report on inventories at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.