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Mohan 01/06/04

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Mohan 01/06/04

por Dwer » 1/6/2004 15:18

Market Force: Bearish. Look for a higher opening above 1121.00 and an early move higher to be bearish for today.

Trade Setup Summary for Friday, May 28, 2004:
No Trades on Friday.

Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Tuesday's trading action. Hope you had a relaxing extra long weekend.

We offered no Headline Call or trade suggestions on Friday due to low holiday volume. The range was very tight showing only 5.50 points of stretch from the 1117 area to the 1122 area. Was a good day to take off as we had anticipated.

Let's move on to what we expect for today.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Market Force indicators are still bearish for today and the commentary from Thursday and Friday's briefing still apply today in regards to looking to stay on the Sell side of the market.

We want to trade in line with the Market Force indicators which are suggesting that we are on the verge of a large move down.

One thing however that is bothering me about seeing these radical bearish readings of the Market Force indicators is that last time I saw this we had an aberration move in the opposite direction to the upside. I had promised myself then to really take a hard look at many different alternative comparisons to be sure that the readings were not giving me a "smokescreen" for a secret underlying up move.

In line with this is the fact that the market is starting to become a bit "Numb" to all the terrorist/war drill and heavily discounting the bad news. This is usually an underlying bullish sign. We could however just be getting a "delayed shock" reaction due to the holidays.

With this in mind and my strong faith in what my Market Force indicators tell me I want to be a bit extra CAUTIOUS today with the trade.

We will be waiting until at least the first hour is over before trading today and most likely (depending on the way the market is moving) up until 11:00 est. Cannot be sure until we are there in the action.

WATCH FOR TODAY: A BreakOut bullish rally above the high put in the first hour with a screaming mega bullish High 5.

If we don't see this then look for an early push up in prices to fade out later in the session. I am not expecting an early sell off today but the Market Force is there for a STRONG LOWER MOVE that keeps heading south.

Value Area: 1,119.50 - 1,121.10
Trade below 1119.50 AND SPECIFICALLY 1116.00 IS BEARISH FOR TODAY.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,117.50 - 1,118.50
No Trade at this pivot today. Watch for support at 1113.25 and trade below that to keep heading lower.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,123.00 - 1,122.00
Watch this zone and the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1127.25 as resistance IF we do not get a Mega Bullish BreakOut buy today.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,101.40
Once we crack 1116.00 we should start making a steady path down towards this Pit Bull.

Pro Trader's Action
A brief update today as I do not have a lot of information on how things are trading from Friday.

Some strong bad news in Saudi Arabia was neutralized later in the weekend and prices have held up on Globex.

Let today have some time to play out in the first 2 hours or so and see if the short side reveals itself as the strongest underlying force which we expect.

Good luck and all the best of success this week. Mohan
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Abraço,
Dwer

There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
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