José Luís Carneiro considerado o melhor líder para o PS

[Camisa Roxa]

Back in late November we adopted an unpopular concern that the bull trend of October
and November was winding down. Ultimately that concern was a valid one, as December
did indeed give back much of the gains from the previous two months. Part of the
reason we became bearish for December was extreme investor overconfidence. But
another reason for bearishness was the chart pattern we had mentioned in the November
29th TrendWatch, which was the approach towards the 200-day moving average line.

We have not stayed above this 200-day line since September of 2000. While we did
touch on it in March and December of this year, it served as resistance both of those
times, sending the market back down again. This Tuesday we again broke through that
line, only to meet resistance yesterday as most of the major indices fell. This is
significant, as the 200-day line is a key measure of bullishness or bearishness. If
we do cross it and stay above it, it will serve as a glimmer of hope for the bulls.
If we don't happen to cross it, as you can see from earlier charts, not only do we
not advance, the market usually falls sharply. Tuesday's and Wednesday's chart
pattern is frighteningly similar to December's pattern, and puts us at an important
juncture as of today. We really need to cross this 200-day moving average line.

NASDAQ 100 INDEX - DAILY
http://www.bigtrends.com/images/010903dtwgraph.gif

Chart created with Genesis Chart Navigator

With index futures being up at the time this is being written, we are at least
encouraged that we have a chance to move higher. But as you can also see, the market
may take a few days to decide which way to turn, and give us a few fake-outs in the
meantime. The coming week is going to be the "make-or-break" week. One of the
potential factors that could interfere with next week is Friday's option expirations.
In any case, keep an eye on the market and the 200-day line over the next few days
for an important clue.