Mohan 25/05/04
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Mohan 25/05/04
Market Force: Bearish. Continue to stay on the sell side especially with early rally attempts.
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, May 24, 2004:
S@1098.00/ B@1092.00 +6pts
Recap of Monday's Action:
Welcome to Tuesday's trading action.
Monday's action followed our script pretty much to the letter as prices gapped up on the open, pushed higher and then sold off. Due to Monday generally being a bullish day and with the upcoming Memorial Day weekend we got some support but we are expecting that to fizzle out today.
Here are my Wrap Up comments for Monday's Live Update Service.
"Our Market Force indicators were bearish today indicating that we would look to get short on higher, early moves.
We got the early strong gap up +7 bucks to 1099.25 and an attempt to run em higher into the 1100.00 handle.
The indicators gave me a signal to go short at 1098.00 area in anticipation of the Hour One low being hit first at 1095.00. The market took off lower and we plowed through the BreakDown moving towards 1093.00 area before some support came in.
I was looking for 1091-92 as a covering spot and on a move lower we got what we wanted and covered em up at 1092.00 for a +6 pts. profit.
After watching the market a bit more I could it appeared we would just trade in a range with a bit of upside pressure so we called it a day."
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today I am expecting the market to get hit with some selling.
We want to especially watch for a move BELOW 1087.00 which would be very bearish. If the lower move below this number shows a weak High 5 then we could get slow erosion all day.
If the lower prices come early and push down dramatically BEFORE the first hour is over then we could see some support come in. It all depends on the opening reaction and the follow through.
Overall we are expecting the early prices to attempt to push higher again today. If that is the case we will be looking for SELL THE BREAKOUT of the Highs of the Hour One move.
Watch for the High 5 to be bullish/neutral at the time with some potential to roll to neutral/Bearish.
On a gap lower or "surprise" early drop (we wouldn't be surprised at all) then we will be watching for the selling to get done early and support to come in probably around 1.5 to 2 hours after trading.
What can often occur on weeks where there is an upcoming holiday is that there will be a dramatic sell off which will get the Bears fully entrenched in negativity and then the market rises from the rubble to move higher going into Friday when all the larger traders and commercial firms take off.
So watch for this phenomena this week as we are set up for it.
Value Area: 1,092.20 - 1,097.00
First sign of weakness will be to see the prices trade BELOW THE VALUE AREA and HOLD BELOW this 1092.00 area.
Next, holding below 1087.00 will be extra bearish as explained above. A lower early move that starts to recover will get held back by the bottom of the VA most likely so watch for this on any early, hard drops in the first 30 minutes or so.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,091.25 - 1,092.25
No Trade at this target but watch for support to come in at 1087.00 which is the -4.25 stop/pivot today. This is double support and if prices blow through this to the downside it will be extra bearish seeing this stop/pivot get taken out.
If this occurs EARLY then watch for a reflex bounce to 1090.25 to sell according to our reflex reversal method described in the Trading Handbook.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,101.75 - 1,100.75
Overnight on Globex we are trading lower towards 1092.00 so not sure if we will go up and visit this number again. If so we want to be ready to SELL THE 1100.00 HANDLE.
Those who are following our daily trading signals on the Live Update Service should be prepared early to SELL THIS SELL PIVOT TARGET if it gets hit on or just after the opening.
I'll be putting live comments on around the opening if it appears we are going to hit it too.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,092.20
Crucial initial support which is showing up here on overnight Globex so let's see how they treat this number near the opening.
Remember, if they squash the prices early then just stand aside and we will either short a reflex bounce or buy em deeper when they get overcooked to the downside.
Pro Trader's Action
With the popular Holiday extended weekend for traders coming we often see prices get bullish later in the week as this also coincides with a new month starting.
So if they do get pushed lower today we will be considering a Buy side trade as the Bearish Market Force will have exhausted itself on any early large drops.
Be prepared to trade early if somehow we get an early rally up to the 1100.00 handle area at the Sell Pivot target.
Good luck with your trades today and I'll see you in the action.
Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, May 24, 2004:
S@1098.00/ B@1092.00 +6pts
Recap of Monday's Action:
Welcome to Tuesday's trading action.
Monday's action followed our script pretty much to the letter as prices gapped up on the open, pushed higher and then sold off. Due to Monday generally being a bullish day and with the upcoming Memorial Day weekend we got some support but we are expecting that to fizzle out today.
Here are my Wrap Up comments for Monday's Live Update Service.
"Our Market Force indicators were bearish today indicating that we would look to get short on higher, early moves.
We got the early strong gap up +7 bucks to 1099.25 and an attempt to run em higher into the 1100.00 handle.
The indicators gave me a signal to go short at 1098.00 area in anticipation of the Hour One low being hit first at 1095.00. The market took off lower and we plowed through the BreakDown moving towards 1093.00 area before some support came in.
I was looking for 1091-92 as a covering spot and on a move lower we got what we wanted and covered em up at 1092.00 for a +6 pts. profit.
After watching the market a bit more I could it appeared we would just trade in a range with a bit of upside pressure so we called it a day."
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today I am expecting the market to get hit with some selling.
We want to especially watch for a move BELOW 1087.00 which would be very bearish. If the lower move below this number shows a weak High 5 then we could get slow erosion all day.
If the lower prices come early and push down dramatically BEFORE the first hour is over then we could see some support come in. It all depends on the opening reaction and the follow through.
Overall we are expecting the early prices to attempt to push higher again today. If that is the case we will be looking for SELL THE BREAKOUT of the Highs of the Hour One move.
Watch for the High 5 to be bullish/neutral at the time with some potential to roll to neutral/Bearish.
On a gap lower or "surprise" early drop (we wouldn't be surprised at all) then we will be watching for the selling to get done early and support to come in probably around 1.5 to 2 hours after trading.
What can often occur on weeks where there is an upcoming holiday is that there will be a dramatic sell off which will get the Bears fully entrenched in negativity and then the market rises from the rubble to move higher going into Friday when all the larger traders and commercial firms take off.
So watch for this phenomena this week as we are set up for it.
Value Area: 1,092.20 - 1,097.00
First sign of weakness will be to see the prices trade BELOW THE VALUE AREA and HOLD BELOW this 1092.00 area.
Next, holding below 1087.00 will be extra bearish as explained above. A lower early move that starts to recover will get held back by the bottom of the VA most likely so watch for this on any early, hard drops in the first 30 minutes or so.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,091.25 - 1,092.25
No Trade at this target but watch for support to come in at 1087.00 which is the -4.25 stop/pivot today. This is double support and if prices blow through this to the downside it will be extra bearish seeing this stop/pivot get taken out.
If this occurs EARLY then watch for a reflex bounce to 1090.25 to sell according to our reflex reversal method described in the Trading Handbook.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,101.75 - 1,100.75
Overnight on Globex we are trading lower towards 1092.00 so not sure if we will go up and visit this number again. If so we want to be ready to SELL THE 1100.00 HANDLE.
Those who are following our daily trading signals on the Live Update Service should be prepared early to SELL THIS SELL PIVOT TARGET if it gets hit on or just after the opening.
I'll be putting live comments on around the opening if it appears we are going to hit it too.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,092.20
Crucial initial support which is showing up here on overnight Globex so let's see how they treat this number near the opening.
Remember, if they squash the prices early then just stand aside and we will either short a reflex bounce or buy em deeper when they get overcooked to the downside.
Pro Trader's Action
With the popular Holiday extended weekend for traders coming we often see prices get bullish later in the week as this also coincides with a new month starting.
So if they do get pushed lower today we will be considering a Buy side trade as the Bearish Market Force will have exhausted itself on any early large drops.
Be prepared to trade early if somehow we get an early rally up to the 1100.00 handle area at the Sell Pivot target.
Good luck with your trades today and I'll see you in the action.
Mohan
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Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
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