Mohan 11/05/04
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Obrigado Dwer ....
por nos proporcionar esta mais valia, para comparar com as nossas estratégias.
Bem haja.
abraço
rato
Bem haja.
abraço
rato
-
rat
Mohan 11/05/04
Market Force: Bullish in first half of session and Bearish for afternoon session. After an early rally today we are expecting the market to continue to look weak.
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, May 10, 2004:
Trade Summary:
B@1082.75/ S@1088.75 +6pts.
Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today on Tuesday's action.
Our Headline Call was to "Look for an early move lower that holds lower beyond the first hour of trading to reverse to the upside off the lows." This is exactly what we got on Monday and you can see from the chart above the bullish Market Force kicked in strongly.
Later in the session we saw the weakness return but then more bouncing off the lows. We were able to capitalize on the early lower prices by getting long. Here is my Market Wrap Up for Tuesday I put on at the close which talks about the intraday action that occured.
"In accordance with our Headline Call/ Market Force we were looking for a spot to get long this morning near the first hour.
We were fortunate in that the market followed our script to open lower (gap -6.00) and then pushed lower HOLDING the lows into the first hour.
We gave our long recommendation and estimated price was 1082.75. There was some signs of higher prices at first on a run up to 1084.75 area but then they got squashed back lower even running below 1079.00 which was a bit creepy.
I had to adjust our mental stop a few times to keep us in the trade as I knew they were ready to rip to the upside. So our final mental stop was adjusted to the condition of seeing the prices hold above 1079.00 (our hard stop was at 1077.00...we always use a hard stop in the markets for protection) and they held up although it tested our nerves and patience.
Prices started lifting up as the High Five improved from a Bear Ugly condition to just very bearish and the underlying strength rocketed them up to our stated exact goal of 1089.00 which was the exact high of the move.
I had put out the alert to sell the long as they were tapping 1088.50/1089.00 and our tracked ticks would have got traders out at 10-88.75/89.00 for a +6pt. profit.
I decided we would stop trading about 30 minutes after we closed out the first trade.
They jammed em down again towards 1080.00 later in the session but held and once again the Bullish Market Force ramped em up to the 1087.00 area. After Backing off of that rally as we come into the close we are essentially neutral on the day.
I was concerned about this counter move to the downside when we got out of our long and that is why we stood aside.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today we are expecting an early rally to really show some strength but the ominous feature of today's Headline Call is very rare in that we are expecting a move to a Bearish Market Force later in the session.
The early rally we are expecting will knock out a lot of the stops built up over the last 2 sessions but certain price limits most likely will be reached and we would expect to see rallies get hit with selling after "hanging up" some during the first few hours. We'll know more when we see the condition of the High Five, the Trailblazer Indicator response and the Market Profile response along with the important numbers.
JOIN US FOR A ONE WEEK FREE TRIAL TO OUR NEW LIVE INTRADAY UPDATE SERVICE. Subscribers to my daily "Morning Call" briefings have been badgering me for almost 2 years to create an intraday update service and I finally rolled it out. Now I am committed to creating the absolute best S&P500 Live service ever seen in the industry. So far comments from long time experienced traders are confirming just that. Now you can take a FREE TRIAL for a week and check it out. Call (800) 806-4801 and Mention CODE TCFMC (No its not a Da Vinci code) and you'll get your Free trial. But be aware...this service is for REAL S&P500 traders who want to rock and roll...no wimps allowed.
Today the trade will be a bit more challenging. We will have to see what the tape and market look like to gauge the strength of the early rally (if indeed there is one). They could ramp em back up to the 1100.00 handle today before starting to fizzle out again. That would clean out a lot of perma bears.
Here is what is going on with the current market direction: If we get a higher opening and early rally today that ultimately will feed further downward movement. If you follow our daily briefings carefully you would know that we have been waiting for a new Buy Mode to kick in. THAT NEW BUY MODE HAS NEVER OFFICIALLY KICKED IN. I have expressed this in these briefings. I have been anticipating it and using that underlying force to make trades such as Monday's trade but the actual Buy Mode has not officially kicked in. Duh.
If we get this higher opening and early run up today what I suspect will happen is that we will open up the potential to a run down to 1066.00 on the S&P500. It will depend on how strong today's reversal upside is.
Watch the numbers around the first hour highs and also the numbers above the Sell Pivot target described below for more clues. I'll have the blow by blow details on our NEW LIVE INTRADAY UPDATE SERVICE.
Value Area: 1,080.80 - 1,087.40
Trade holding above 1087.40 is bullish for today. Market that rallies and pulls back into this VA is a sign of weakness.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,077.25 - 1,078.25
We may try and drop down here again but I am rather expecting we are going higher right off the opening.
If they open higher and run up FIRST then this will support our Headline Call for lower prices later in the session.kk
Sell Pivot Target: 1,090.75 - 1,089.75
The market should be able to run through these zone to the upside. +4.25 stop/pivot is at 1095.00 and we can expect some resistance up there.
A test of the 1100.00 handle again is not out of the question so we are going to be carefully gauging the Market Force bullish pressure if we decide to get short later in the session.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,112.70
We are still selling larger rallies as long as we are below this number. The 10 day Moving average on the S&P500 is a very valuable tool for gauging the market direction and the name we gave it....Pit Bull...is named after Marty Schwartz who really brought it to my attention in his great book by the same title. Highly recommended reading and refresher course reading for anyone interested in our trading methods and "toughening up" while in S&P500 training camp.
Pro Trader's Action
Depending on how they open and how much strength they show to the upside we are probably going to be looking for a short trade later in the mid morning session probably after 12:00 Est. This is not by any means confirmed yet untill we see what the action is like but an estimate of the situation. I have seen this exact market setup before many times and this is usually what ends up being the right thing to do.
So without officially pronouncing it...plan on not making any trades until after the first 2 hours of trading. I'll update you after the first 40 minutes of trading or so as to the status of this trading call.
Let's stay centered and humble and ready to rock and stay on a roll. All the best of sucess today, Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, May 10, 2004:
Trade Summary:
B@1082.75/ S@1088.75 +6pts.
Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today on Tuesday's action.
Our Headline Call was to "Look for an early move lower that holds lower beyond the first hour of trading to reverse to the upside off the lows." This is exactly what we got on Monday and you can see from the chart above the bullish Market Force kicked in strongly.
Later in the session we saw the weakness return but then more bouncing off the lows. We were able to capitalize on the early lower prices by getting long. Here is my Market Wrap Up for Tuesday I put on at the close which talks about the intraday action that occured.
"In accordance with our Headline Call/ Market Force we were looking for a spot to get long this morning near the first hour.
We were fortunate in that the market followed our script to open lower (gap -6.00) and then pushed lower HOLDING the lows into the first hour.
We gave our long recommendation and estimated price was 1082.75. There was some signs of higher prices at first on a run up to 1084.75 area but then they got squashed back lower even running below 1079.00 which was a bit creepy.
I had to adjust our mental stop a few times to keep us in the trade as I knew they were ready to rip to the upside. So our final mental stop was adjusted to the condition of seeing the prices hold above 1079.00 (our hard stop was at 1077.00...we always use a hard stop in the markets for protection) and they held up although it tested our nerves and patience.
Prices started lifting up as the High Five improved from a Bear Ugly condition to just very bearish and the underlying strength rocketed them up to our stated exact goal of 1089.00 which was the exact high of the move.
I had put out the alert to sell the long as they were tapping 1088.50/1089.00 and our tracked ticks would have got traders out at 10-88.75/89.00 for a +6pt. profit.
I decided we would stop trading about 30 minutes after we closed out the first trade.
They jammed em down again towards 1080.00 later in the session but held and once again the Bullish Market Force ramped em up to the 1087.00 area. After Backing off of that rally as we come into the close we are essentially neutral on the day.
I was concerned about this counter move to the downside when we got out of our long and that is why we stood aside.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today we are expecting an early rally to really show some strength but the ominous feature of today's Headline Call is very rare in that we are expecting a move to a Bearish Market Force later in the session.
The early rally we are expecting will knock out a lot of the stops built up over the last 2 sessions but certain price limits most likely will be reached and we would expect to see rallies get hit with selling after "hanging up" some during the first few hours. We'll know more when we see the condition of the High Five, the Trailblazer Indicator response and the Market Profile response along with the important numbers.
JOIN US FOR A ONE WEEK FREE TRIAL TO OUR NEW LIVE INTRADAY UPDATE SERVICE. Subscribers to my daily "Morning Call" briefings have been badgering me for almost 2 years to create an intraday update service and I finally rolled it out. Now I am committed to creating the absolute best S&P500 Live service ever seen in the industry. So far comments from long time experienced traders are confirming just that. Now you can take a FREE TRIAL for a week and check it out. Call (800) 806-4801 and Mention CODE TCFMC (No its not a Da Vinci code) and you'll get your Free trial. But be aware...this service is for REAL S&P500 traders who want to rock and roll...no wimps allowed.
Today the trade will be a bit more challenging. We will have to see what the tape and market look like to gauge the strength of the early rally (if indeed there is one). They could ramp em back up to the 1100.00 handle today before starting to fizzle out again. That would clean out a lot of perma bears.
Here is what is going on with the current market direction: If we get a higher opening and early rally today that ultimately will feed further downward movement. If you follow our daily briefings carefully you would know that we have been waiting for a new Buy Mode to kick in. THAT NEW BUY MODE HAS NEVER OFFICIALLY KICKED IN. I have expressed this in these briefings. I have been anticipating it and using that underlying force to make trades such as Monday's trade but the actual Buy Mode has not officially kicked in. Duh.
If we get this higher opening and early run up today what I suspect will happen is that we will open up the potential to a run down to 1066.00 on the S&P500. It will depend on how strong today's reversal upside is.
Watch the numbers around the first hour highs and also the numbers above the Sell Pivot target described below for more clues. I'll have the blow by blow details on our NEW LIVE INTRADAY UPDATE SERVICE.
Value Area: 1,080.80 - 1,087.40
Trade holding above 1087.40 is bullish for today. Market that rallies and pulls back into this VA is a sign of weakness.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,077.25 - 1,078.25
We may try and drop down here again but I am rather expecting we are going higher right off the opening.
If they open higher and run up FIRST then this will support our Headline Call for lower prices later in the session.kk
Sell Pivot Target: 1,090.75 - 1,089.75
The market should be able to run through these zone to the upside. +4.25 stop/pivot is at 1095.00 and we can expect some resistance up there.
A test of the 1100.00 handle again is not out of the question so we are going to be carefully gauging the Market Force bullish pressure if we decide to get short later in the session.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,112.70
We are still selling larger rallies as long as we are below this number. The 10 day Moving average on the S&P500 is a very valuable tool for gauging the market direction and the name we gave it....Pit Bull...is named after Marty Schwartz who really brought it to my attention in his great book by the same title. Highly recommended reading and refresher course reading for anyone interested in our trading methods and "toughening up" while in S&P500 training camp.
Pro Trader's Action
Depending on how they open and how much strength they show to the upside we are probably going to be looking for a short trade later in the mid morning session probably after 12:00 Est. This is not by any means confirmed yet untill we see what the action is like but an estimate of the situation. I have seen this exact market setup before many times and this is usually what ends up being the right thing to do.
So without officially pronouncing it...plan on not making any trades until after the first 2 hours of trading. I'll update you after the first 40 minutes of trading or so as to the status of this trading call.
Let's stay centered and humble and ready to rock and stay on a roll. All the best of sucess today, Mohan
- Anexos
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- Mohan 110504.PNG (31.61 KiB) Visualizado 175 vezes
Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
-
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- Registado: 4/11/2002 23:16
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