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[Dwer]

Market Force: Bullish with Caution. Market expected to rally today if we get a clear bullish High Five after first hour. Caution due to the possibility of surprise delayed drop we expected yesterday to sneak up today.
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, May 5, 2004:
Trade Summary:

S@1120.50/B@1122.75 -2.25 pts.

Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Wednesday was pivotal in determining what the next move of the markets will be as expressed in our Headline Call and Market Force. As you know we don't play games with our market calls or couch our briefings with fancy, slick market talk but tell you exactly what is going on.

All I can do is report to you what our extremely accurate Market Force indicators are telling me and today they are saying we will rally.

The Problem/Caution is that we were expecting a strong Sell off into the close on Wednesday after we saw the markets opening action and we did not get that. IT COULD BE DELAYED FOR TODAY.

We were trading the market to the short side on Wednesday which did not fully pan out yet did not get a strong bullish reaction either. However,the dramatic Sell spikes that kept coming in continuously kept getting bought up...this is bullish action talking.

If the strong Sell reaction is going to be delayed it should show up in the first hour of trading and the High Five along with other indicators will warn us. If the High Five are bullish then we will be able to get long.

Here is what I wrote in my Wrap Up comments from the TCF Live Update Service on Wednesday.


"We had a Neutral/Bullish bias today in the markets but with the higher opening and early higher prices wanted to get short.

We found the spot in the chart formations at the specific Trailblazer level to go short at 1120.50.

Prices hung up a bit and then started moving lower. 1119.00 was an important number we had identified early for support or resistance if they could bust through it to the downside.

After some time the selling pressure kicked in and we were looking for 1116.25 area to cover up the short if they could get going that low. They pressed just below 1118.00 and started moving up again with the underlying bullish Market Force intact.

After holding most of the day we covered the short as they pushed up to the 1123.00 area and officially showed a covering price of 1122.75 for a small -2.25 loss. We stopped trading for the day and prices just waffled around in the 1123-11120 range mostly the rest of the day so nothing missed really

Today's Call & Briefing:
As mentioned above our Headline Call for today is for Bullish Market Force to kick in and cause a rally.

We had to issue a CAUTION on that direct call however because we were expecting a larger scale sell off on Wednesday after we saw the opening and Hour One market action. The Sell Spikes kept getting bought up which was/is bullish.

However, there may be a sneak down drop today and I wanted to issue that Caution because I see it in the calculation of my 18 Market Force indicators.

We will monitor the High Five today to see what the reaction will be to a move in the opposite direction which is normally how we like to set up a trade.

FOR TODAY: Watch for a lower early move to be bullish if the High Five are in decent shape with the NAZ not down over -15 and Dow not down heavily below -50-60. Look for TRIN to be under 1.30 and VIX flat to slightly higher in a set up like this.

If we hit the Hour One BreakOut FIRST and the High Five are bullish today is pegged for a good possibility of a BreakOut buy. Read our Trading Manual for all the symptoms of a BreakOut buy setup.

This coming rally in the new Buy Mode, UNLESS IT IS CANCELLED BY AN ABERRATION MOVE LOWER, is expected to be very disguised and fool a lot of the bears. The key will be to see how the rallies are handled by the public traders. Usually the strongest rallies are at a time when the overall public is bearish or confused standing aside. Lot of this going on now with all the political problems and War mongering.

If the Bears keep shorting the rallies and the rallies keep upticking then the market will have explosive upwards periods. We may be on the verge of one right now. This week and early next week will tell us but we will be ready now and anticipating this backed up by the cautions mentioned in detail above.

Value Area: 1,119.40 - 1,123.00
This small Value Area zone will tell us a lot today. Trade HOLDING above this zone today is going to move higher whereas 1119.00 was solid support on Wednesday and losing that to the downside today could signal that delayed sell off I was referring too.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,117.50 - 1,118.50
For the bullish case to be intact today this zone will support the markets and move higher. If the Stop/Pivot at 1113.25 gets taken out then we are going to look for another test of 1106.00.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,125.50 - 1,124.50
If we move up to this zone and HANG UP here then we would expect this to be a bullish signal and prices should move higher. Crossing above 1130.00 is a clear sign the market wants to move towards the first goal up of 1142-44.00 although not necessarily today.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,124.90
The first sign of clear strength will be to see the prices move through this zone to the upside and hold above this. If the market is truly strong then prices will show a more rapid and forceful move above this number flying up towards 1130.00 without much difficulty.

Pro Trader's Action
On today's briefing I have given you exact clear information on what to look for to see where the market is going.

We are going to be watching specifically 1119.00 to support the market and below that 1114.50.

If we see the High Five showing good strength and the reaction to the Trailblazer indicator backing up the High Five with strength then we are going to look for a bullish breakout.

Bear Ugly tape or very heavy bearish could be a sign of the delayed sell off from Wednesday. If this is thwarted and market rallies then we should have 2 strong days up.

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