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[Dwer]

Market Force: Bullish. Sell Mode in bottoming phase now as we roll to the new Buy Mode soon. One more possible washout low coming but prepare for rallies off of lows.

Trade Setup Summary for Friday, April 30, 2004:
Trade Summary:

B@1112.25/ S@1117.25 +5pts. TOTAL: +5PTS.

Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and hope you had a nice weekend.

Friday saw some pretty volatile action with the herky jerky up and down movements in about a 5 point range confusing everyone. We were out early on Friday with a profit expecting the tricky price movements and a further price washout but not wanting to risk much on a Friday. Here's what occured for us on Friday as reported in my Wrap Up comments on our daily Live Update Service.

"Our Headline Call today was looking for Bearish Market Force to contine and a further washout in S&P500 prices which we got today coming into the final hour.

When the market opened, pressed higher and then rapidly sold off in the first hour we became interested in Buying the lower move after the first hour in line with our system and 18 proprietary indicators.

We bought the market at 1112.25 and saw an immediate rally take off. We had urged strong caution as the Market Force was Bearish but we were expecting a run up to 1118.00 as shown in the live posts.

We took +5.00 pts of profit at 1117.25 just before the 1118.00 BreakOut price as per our indicators in the candle charts and the prices. The market just barely tapped 1118.00 and then fell off right away heading back to 1114.00 pretty quickly confirming that the buy side was over EXACTLY where we got out.

We called it a day after booking those +5pts of profit in the first 2 hours because although we were expecting a further washout in prices it was FRIDAY which can often be just small range trading days.

We also wanted to reduce our Friday exposure to the markets having made some money early . Prices traded in an extreme herky jerky 5 point range the REST OF THE DAY until they fell off below the B/D just a few minutes after the final hour began. They indeed took out Thursday's low in a further washout as we had predicted in today's Morning Call.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Our 18 proprietary indicators which make up our Headline Call and Market Force directional call are very bullish for today.

We are looking for prices to make one more forceful washout as a new bottom starts forming for a turn around BUY MODE to start soon.

Will that washout occur today within the first 2 hours of trading? We think there is a very good possibility it will and will be planning our trading accordingly.

The OPENING PRICE is very crucial today. It is an important number EVERYDAY but on certain days (Like Today) is is even more significant.

If prices open up and run lower and then come back and HOLD ABOVE THE OPENING this could be a major factor in confirming a turn around to the upside. We are at least expecting a bullish day for today.

Although we do not want to Buy the Buy Pivot target there is a good chance that we will be seeing an excellent Trailblazer chart formation in that area to trade. We will also be comparing this to the Hour One low for clues as to the prices reaction to that number as well.

If we get a higher opening and an early rally then the pattern will be interupted and we would expect to see things go NEUTRAL for a while and then possibly seeing a BreakOut Buy. For this to occur it will depend on the High Five structure at the time of the BreakOut Hour One pivot and other factors. For a description of what to look for in the High Five and the price movements see our Trading Handbook under Hour One setups....Buy the BreakOut.

FOR PRECISION TIMING AND TRAILBLAZER CHART READING JOIN US ON MY NEW LIVE UPDATE SERVICE. I have personally designed this service to not only give you the best trades but also to teach you how to read Trailblazer, analyze the High Five as well as my insights into the market on a moment to moment basis. This is for REAL TRADERS...I give updates very, very frequently and you need to be ready to act fast. But this new service is rapidly being heralded as "Unparalleled in the S&P500 industry" by many top pro traders who use the service.

Value Area: 1,104.50 - 1,114.40
Most of the trading TICK volume occured in this range and that is how Value is established. You can see a lot of that volume occured on the lows which came later in the session.

If prices can push up to the 1114.40 area early we will be expecting some resistance for a test of the lows. However, if we can drop lower first, run below the Value Area, and then push back up again we could be hitting a bottom. The test would be to see if prices HOLD ABOVE THE OPENING after this setup occuring. Moving above 1114.50 at that point would be A BULLISH MOVE and could possibly coincide with a BreakOut buy.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,100.50 - 1,101.50
No trade at this pivot but as mentioned above watch this area for formations on the charts that would get us to buy. Compare also to the Hour One low for added confirmation. 1096.25 should support the market today we expect.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,115.00 - 1,114.00
We have this Sell Pivot target right at the top of the Value Area which confirms what I wrote above. A move up here early would most likely sell off and then find a bottom after the first hour.

Regardless, on Monday's especially (and most other trading days) we WAIT for the first hour to transpire as the information of how prices are reacting after the first hour to different established levels is very important information.

It's one thing to see prices rally or sell off of key Pivot numbers in the first hour and then in hindsite think..."Why didn't we Buy/Sell there" but in S&P500 trading the first thing and most important thing is SURVIVAL.

That comes from getting in a trade that you have MAXIMUM EVIDENCE of the trade being successful.

New traders and amateurs who have been around for a while talking but never really understood the game or took S&P500 trading serious are fond of expounding on how we "should've" bought or sold at a certain price.

They see the prices flying around and hitting certain pivots and moving off of them and that somehow means to them that I or someone is supposed to be "perfectly trading" all those moves. They will make rediculous statements like this but it only reveals their lack of experience and understanding of S&P500 trading. Usually those type of talkers are out of the S&P500 trading game after 6 months after their accounts are wiped out.

Better to stack up all the evidence you can to make a trade and get the best deal at a spot where you can also calculate a tighter stop.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,126.70
We are in a new Sell Rallies phase on the Pit Bull but as the new Buy Mode kicks in here over the next few days we should be back up closing in on the Pit Bull to Crossover to the Buy Drops side before long.

The Market is thowing a wrench in everyones theories of the past now and the best thing to do is follow what works.

Ideas about seasonal trends, 200 day moving averages, "long term" support/resistance etc. are all becoming obsoleted by the new 2004 market.

Here at 21st Century Futures we have an almost 2 year track record of calling the daily, short term and longer term market direction with great accuracy using our 18 proprietary indicators under many different market conditions including the new 2004 market.

Pro Trader's Action
We want to be on the lookout for lower prices to get bought up and start a new Buy Mode soon. There may be one more lower washout to go here but at least for today we want to be willing buyers.

We also want to be MORE WILLING TO BUY AND HOLD TODAY if we get the right setup. WE COULD HAVE A LARGER SCALE UPSIDE MOVE TODAY so let's be prepared.

I'll be updating traders moment to moment today on our new TCF Live Update Service and I'd be honored if you joined us.

Have a great trading day and I'll see you in the action. Mohan