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fica aqui um par de artigos pelo dito cujo sobre "todas as parcelas de défices"... pode ser compridote.. mas tem coisas interessantes:


Deficit threat

Ten detrimental deficits
Connecting the dots on America's financial hole

By Paul B. Farrell, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 8:28 PM ET April 12, 2004

ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (CBS.MW) -- Deficits, deficits, deficits. We hear a lot about "connecting the dots" in the intelligence arena. But nobody's connecting the deficit dots.

Vice president Dick Cheney reminded critics that "Reagan proved deficits don't matter." Maybe he's right. We've dug our way out many times before. But Cheney is only talking about the federal deficit. What about all the many other mounting deficits throughout the American economy? Like Warren Buffett's recent warning about the trade deficit: "We're selling the nation out from under us."

I see at least 10 deficits accumulating. Maybe one or two aren't worth the pessimism Buffett expresses. But taken together, when all the dots are connected, we may be watching a critical mass of multiple domestic deficits, one that will implode and do more damage than any external terrorist threats.

1. Trade deficit

As a result of huge annual trade imbalances, foreigners now own $2.5 trillion of America. And it'll get worse. Buffett using a folksy analogy in Fortune: America is acting like a rich farmer that's consuming more than they produce. To cover the shortfall they sell off big chunks of their land every year and increase the mortgage on what's left. Coincidently, the value of our currency continues dropping in the global market; eventually that'll backfire, triggering trade wars.

2. Federal deficit

Maybe deficits don't matter. But out-of-control spending does. The budget's growing at an annual rate of nine percent, and that's with the party historically against big government in power. Yet neither Congress nor the President has any desire to control spending. Instead, America acts like obese teenage drug addicts with stolen credit cards. Today's $500 billion annual deficits have reversed a one-time projected surplus of $5.6 trillion and will drive America $7.8 trillion in debt by 2011.

A Brookings Institution study warns that if we do nothing for the next 10 years, problems will get so bad that "balancing the budget would require a 41 percent cut in spending on Social Security and Medicare, a 47 percent cut in discretionary spending, or a 17 percent cut in all non-interest spending." The study also predicts that politically nothing will be done until the crisis explodes.

3. Medicare deficit

The Medicare reform bill passed with inadequate prescription drug freebies for voting seniors. The drug cartel got huge benefits including an absurd no-price negotiation clause. Within weeks the White House had to admit the price tag was underestimated; it is $500 billion not $400 billion. Boston University economist Larry Kotlikoff estimates long-term net Medicare debt at $36.6 trillion, and climbing. Politicians will want to give seniors even more, negating any chance of serious reform.

4. Social Security deficit

Social Security will be bankrupt by 2016. Or 2046. Or maybe never, depending on which politicians are jiggling the numbers. Critics blame the tax cuts, warning of $7 trillion shortfalls. But Wharton Economist Jeremy Siegel says a one-percent change in productivity estimates and the problem disappears. Still, the administration promised to privatize Social Security, giving Wall Street access to trillions of new fee-generating assets. Unfortunately, privatization will not take care of the system's underlying structural problems and America's declining savings rate.

5. Savings deficit

We have become a financially obese consumer nation, with little set aside for the future. Since 1980 the savings rate of American citizens has dropped from eight percent to about one percent. Only one in three Americans is saving enough to retire comfortably. The net worth of the average American, exclusive of home equity, is only $15,000. Without Social Security the average person over 65 would be living below the poverty level.

6. Consumer-credit deficit

Easy credit encourages ever increasing consumption. Today consumer debt is about $2 trillion and increasing. That doesn't include home mortgages. Meanwhile, more than one million Americans declare personal bankruptcy annually. We are a nation living beyond its means, mortgaging the future excessively.

7. Energy-oil deficit

Economist Paul Erdman recently wrote: "One of the great geopolitical clichés of our time is that he who controls the supply, and thus also the price, of crude petroleum, is Master of the Universe," but that's no longer true. So far the Iraqi war has produced the opposite result intended. We've driven allies away and hardened alliances among Islamic nations, many of which control the supply and price of oil. More and more we see deficits in our access to oil. The rising price of domestic gasoline is just one consequence.

8. War deficit

We are now engaged in World War III, euphemistically calling it a war on terror. It will continue indefinitely. Unfortunately, the federal budget omits long-term estimates of maintaining 100,000 military in Iraq, another deficit exceeding $1 trillion over the next decade.

9. Credibility deficit

America's international credibility is near zero due to our failure to find the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Even our allies don't trust us. And a billion Muslims worldwide now see America as the neo-Christian crusaders attacking their culture. Moreover, the internal political forces that pushed the administration into war with Iraq are now working behind the scenes to escalate this WW III to a new level, by attacking Iran.

10. Humility deficit

Humility? We've lost it. That's lethal. Political historian Kevin Phillips warned us: "Most great nations, at the peak of their economic power, become arrogant and wage great world wars at great cost, wasting vast resources, taking on huge debt, and ultimately burning themselves out." And the cost of our arrogance may compound America's multiple deficits for generations to come.

If you're bearish and pessimistic, Buffett offers a tip, he has $31 billion in cash sitting in his Berkshire Hathaway Fund (BRKA) because he says there's nothing worth buying. If you're a bullish investor, do nothing -- assuming you have a well-diversified portfolio.




Will 11 more deficits push us over the edge?
We've become addicted to 'living beyond our means' in many areas

By Paul B. Farrell, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 8:39 PM ET April 21, 2004

LOS ANGELES (CBS.MW) -- Turns out deficits do matter a lot to America's investors. A helluva lot! After writing about America's Top 10 deficits more than 200 readers told me that I missed some of the most important deficits facing America today.

The original list included eight "hard economic" deficits: Foreign trade, the federal budget, Social Security, Medicare, personal savings, consumer credit, energy and war and two intangibles, credibility and humility.

Individually, none are insurmountable. Collectively, it's a different story. With a cumulative long-term economic cost of $57 trillion, they raise a major, possibly insurmountable, challenge far greater than any external terrorist threats.

One reader summarized it best: "Deficits are telling us that as a society we're living way beyond our means and ultimately will have to pay the piper."

Deficits are not the problem, they are symptoms. We are an addictive consumer nation. Personally and culturally we have become financially obese, acting like addicts with but one goal -- instant gratification. Worse, we're in denial about the consequences of our behavior, with no desire to stop our self-destructive spending.

And yet, in spite of the frightening possibility these deficits will implode, readers rather calmly added to the list. In fact, what amazed me was that most responses were so well-reasoned and without political rhetoric.

First, let's look at the economic deficits we missed, adding to the prior list of 10. These deficits will add trillions more to the cumulative costs, pushing us closer and faster toward critical mass:

11. Education deficit

On many minds: One worried about "our need to import well-educated professionals although we don't have money for our kids' education because we are busy killing Iraqis, searching for fictitious [weapons of mass destruction] and giving tax breaks to those who don't need them."

12. State and municipal budget deficits

Another big concern: Nearly every state is having a hard time balancing budgets. Even after its recent bond refinancing California's indebtedness is still over $50 billion. Similarly, many of America's 260,000 private homeowners associations are strapped.

13. Corporate pension deficits

Big pension funds claim solvency based on projections of stock market returns that are too optimistic and could backfire, triggering more benefit reductions and outright failures.

14. World Bank and IMF deficits

The United States is banker of last resort when third world countries default on loans. And it's not only underdeveloped countries; this is a problem in developed nations.

15. Income deficit

One baby boomer said that inflation has made her current wages worth 30 percent less than 15 years ago, in spite of raises. The wealthy are less affected and getting richer.

16. Health-care insurance deficits

I also missed many deficits created by a lack of affordable health insurance for Americans under the Medicare age. Plus many younger adults are rapidly draining the disability provisions, as will an aging population raise the costs of long-term care.

17. Obesity deficit

This is no intangible, not with one third of all Americans now obese. This is a national health problem with substantial negative consequences for our health-care system.

Intangibles expose core deficit issues

Readers also added several intangible deficits. They are harder to quantify yet symptoms of the underlying economic deficits weighing on America's future. In fact, many readers described these intangible deficits as the real culprit:

18. Moral Deficit

"You missed the biggest deficit of all; Our moral deficit is at the heart of all other financial deficits. Our nation has completely lost its way morally. We need a strong moral leg to stand on, otherwise it's just a matter of time before we destroy ourselves. Al Qaeda hasn't done half the damage to our country that all of our deficits are doing."

19. Character deficit

"You left out the character deficit. Character, or lack thereof, has become a much larger issue in the last 10 years. We see it in Enron, partisan bickering and a total lack of desire to confront the big deficits you mention in your article."

20. Democracy deficit

Wealthy interest groups now control "democracy" in the United States, through high media concentration and the very expensive process of elections. The vast majority feels powerless and don't get involved: "Why bother? It won't make any difference anyway."

21. Leadership deficit

"The most important deficit of all: Is there even one politician you can think of that actually inspires you with their vision of the future? We are near the peak of our global leadership and in danger of squandering it. Instead, our leaders turned us into mindless consumers blinded by the pursuit of happiness in the next meaningless possession."

Optimist, pessimist ... or realist?

America has faced insurmountable odds before and won. This time is no different. And yet, most readers cannot see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Long term, readers are optimists. But not short term. They're not pessimists, but realists accepting that this spending binge may continue indefinitely before we get a wake-up call to our self-destructive behavior; we have to "bottom out" as recovering addicts say. Only then will we get into action and correct the deficits.

However, many fear that we may wait too long and go past the point of no return, fulfilling the warnings of political historian Kevin Phillips: "Most great nations, at the peak of their economic power, become arrogant and wage great world wars at great cost, wasting vast resources, taking on huge debt, and ultimately burning themselves out."

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estas duas frases são bem interessantes.. ditas por americanos:

"Deficits are telling us that as a society we're living way beyond our means and ultimately will have to pay the piper.
...
Deficits are not the problem, they are symptoms. We are an addictive consumer nation. Personally and culturally we have become financially obese, acting like addicts with but one goal -- instant gratification. Worse, we're in denial about the consequences of our behavior, with no desire to stop our self-destructive spending."

extraido dum artigo By Paul B. Farrell, CBS.MarketWatch.com