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[Dwer]

Market Force: Neutral to Bearish. Market expected to push slightly higher until after 1:30 est before resuming the move down.

Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, April 21, 2004:
Trade Summary: 1)B@1115.25/S@1121.25 +6.00

2)S@1122.25/B@1123.00 -.75

TOTAL: +5.25

Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Thursday's action.

On our Headline Call for Wednesday I was expecting a Bearish/ Neutral type market.

We opened slightly higher by about +3 handles and then sold off revealing the bearish underlying Market Force.

However, after the sell off early I was interested in Buying for a return to a Neutral Force which would bring prices back up and go flat. This is about what we got with the rise off the 1114.50 lows back up above the opening and then trading in a 3-4 point range.

I had mentioned that if prices held above the opening that it would be mildly bullish for the underlying Market Force.

I am seeing different indications today which we will discuss below.

Here is my Wrap up from today's TCF Live Update Service.

"Our Headline Call for a Bearish/Neutral Market Force panned out today as we saw prices open up a bit higher, move lower, rally some and then come back and test the lows again.

Using our new TCF2004 methods we were able to get long on the 2nd lower move and catch a fairly quick rally to 1121-22.00 area for +6 pts.

With prices pushing up a bit to 1122.50 resistance with a 3rd Level up Trailblazer move we went short at 22.25 but abandoned the position shortly after as we saw signals which suggested the market would move higher. Took a small .75 cent loss on that deal.

They pulled back about 2.5 points but it wasn't too bad as they then rallied higher to hit the 1124.75 high we had projected earlier.

In trading the S&P500 it is an art and skill that is a combination of knowing when to get in, estimating when to get out with some profit and being able to detach as the market runs it's course. So on that basis we did pretty good today with our analysis of the Market Force and the way we got in there and traded it.

As mentioned I am looking to focus ideally on 1-2 trades within the Market Force parameters each day although there may be many other opportunities most of which are seen in hindsite.

The key is to have a good performing system/approach that gives consistent gains. I think we may be on the verge of having created that once again after the powerful market shake up of early 2004.

Today's Call & Briefing:
The Market Force for today is NEUTRAL with a Bearish Bias.

I am going to be expecting a mild early rally today that we are going to want to watch for a possible short. The difficulty with today is that I see we could "hang up" near the highs for some time until later in the afternoon when we sell off more strongly.

Of course this will depend on the news coming out for the day and the High Five readings but this is what the underlying indicators are telling me.

If things pan out as expected we should be able to work a short trade off the higher prices. With the Neutral readings right now it may end up being a STAND ASIDE DAY but cannot tell until we see how things are moving.

WATCH FOR TODAY: the possibility of a flat to lower opening that moves higher mid morning. Minus any really strong Bear Ugly type news and High Five readings we should be able to see the market show a semi-positive appearance which would trap the bulls later in the session.

The alternative scenario I want to give you for today due to the Neutral and hence more unpredictable nature of today's market is to watch for the possibility of seeing the market OPEN HIGHER, hold up some, and then get very heavy on the downside. Like the realization that interest rates are going up and the market starts facing that as a negative burden some more taking prices down a bit lower. Either way we are expecting selling energy to come into play today primarily.

Things really are very, very neutral for today so I don't want to get too predictive as the readings are not showing any definite patterns.

Let's just watch how things unfold and I will update you on our New TCF Live Service. PLEASE JOIN US IF YOU HAVEN'T ALREADY FOR COMPREHENSIVE INTRADAY ANALASYS,TRADES AND SCALPS.

Value Area: 1,117.80 - 1,124.00
The test of bearishness today will be to see if prices hold below the Value Area. This is a good possibility and if so we could then see the "heavy market" scenario come into play with the BreakDown getting hit first.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,116.25 - 1,117.25
No Trade at this target today but we are going to see this price show up if the bottom of the VA cannot hold. Below this is 1112.00 as a stronger support below 1116.00.

Dropping below 1112.00 the next goal lower is 1108 and then 1104.00

Sell Pivot Target: 1,126.75 - 1,125.75
No Trade at this target but watch for Trailblazer 3rd level up formations at the 1130-31 area which has become a big resistance zone for right now.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,131.40
Speaking of 1130-31 resistance here we are with the Pit Bull right at that price zone. Another double wall of resistance where we can look for Trailblazer formations to sell.

Pro Trader's Action
The Market Force is not that clear today ...mostly Neutral. We do have a bearish bias combined with that so we want to look to Sell Rallies but give them some time to play out as we are expected to "hang up" near the highs some before fizzling out.

Watch for the heavy, slow erosion scenario too IF the High Five indicators get really heavy with NAZ down hard and Dow not giving any life to the market.

I'll look forward to seeing you in the action. Mohan