Discurso de Greenspan
10 mensagens
|Página 1 de 1
Muito interessante esta troca de opiniões no Realmoney sobre o discurso de Greenspan:
" Howard Simons
On Fed Speak
4/21/04 12:57 PM ET
Adam, all Fed chairmen are deliberately obtuse. It derives from several sources and meets several needs. First, the Fed has been given, by statute (the Full Employment Act of 1946, Humphrey-Hawkins in 1978) multiple and often contradictory objectives. They need to mind employment and output, inflation, the exchange value of the dollar and banking system integrity.
Their tools are remarkably few: The discount rate, the federal funds rate, margin requirements and loan reserve requirements. All of these are very blunt instruments that operate with long and variable lags, which is a polite way of saying we don't know what's going to happen or when. I've likened the Fed's task to performing brain surgery with a garden hoe.
Moreover, Fed officials tend to be both academic economists and practicing politicians; one discipline is notably dense by most practices and the other is given to a bit of - how shall we put it? - dissembling.
Add the whole thing up and you find the only short-term weapon they really have at their disposal is trying to create expectations. You can't come out and say to Congress or whomever, "Here's how I intend to mislead you," so you have to do a little dance.
Finally, you can't cheat an honest man. Fed chairmen speak like that because their target audience wants them to speak in a way that can mean all things to all people. If ever once someone on a Congressional committee snapped, "knock it off and speak English!" he most certainly would.
No stocks mentioned
David Merkel
Greenspeak -- a Foreign Language to All
4/21/04 12:53 PM ET
Adam, your question is very applicable. My view on Greenspan is that he tries to get the market to do his bidding, rather than always using the explicit policy tools that the Fed has. He speaks ambiguously for a number of reasons:
1. If he speaks too clearly, the market will immediately adjust to what the Fed is going to do, and the actual use of their policy instruments will have little impact.
2. He genuinely tries to express the degree of uncertainty inherent in the data and theory underlying economics, as well as the political backdrop.
3. If he answers too quickly and directly, he will get more questions. In basketball, this is called "running down the shot clock."
4. I think he uses obfuscation tactically to make it easier to adjust market expectations. He can give occasional clear statements to bump the bond market where he wants it tactically to go in the short run, which may be different than where he thinks it has to go in the long run.
5. I think he enjoys it.
At present, I think Greenspan wants to keep things near where they are, which allows the economy to grow fairly rapidly to absorb labor market slack. To me, that means targeting the 10-year Treasury between 4.00%-4.50% or so. Unless there is a marked pickup in his favored inflation gauge, or a huge decline in the dollar, I don't see the FOMC being compelled to raise the fed funds rate. To raise rates for the abstract reason of reducing leverage in the fixed income market will not play well politically, particularly in an election year.
All my opinions, but I have been watching the Fed for 20 years... "
(in www.realmoney.com)
" Howard Simons
On Fed Speak
4/21/04 12:57 PM ET
Adam, all Fed chairmen are deliberately obtuse. It derives from several sources and meets several needs. First, the Fed has been given, by statute (the Full Employment Act of 1946, Humphrey-Hawkins in 1978) multiple and often contradictory objectives. They need to mind employment and output, inflation, the exchange value of the dollar and banking system integrity.
Their tools are remarkably few: The discount rate, the federal funds rate, margin requirements and loan reserve requirements. All of these are very blunt instruments that operate with long and variable lags, which is a polite way of saying we don't know what's going to happen or when. I've likened the Fed's task to performing brain surgery with a garden hoe.
Moreover, Fed officials tend to be both academic economists and practicing politicians; one discipline is notably dense by most practices and the other is given to a bit of - how shall we put it? - dissembling.
Add the whole thing up and you find the only short-term weapon they really have at their disposal is trying to create expectations. You can't come out and say to Congress or whomever, "Here's how I intend to mislead you," so you have to do a little dance.
Finally, you can't cheat an honest man. Fed chairmen speak like that because their target audience wants them to speak in a way that can mean all things to all people. If ever once someone on a Congressional committee snapped, "knock it off and speak English!" he most certainly would.
No stocks mentioned
David Merkel
Greenspeak -- a Foreign Language to All
4/21/04 12:53 PM ET
Adam, your question is very applicable. My view on Greenspan is that he tries to get the market to do his bidding, rather than always using the explicit policy tools that the Fed has. He speaks ambiguously for a number of reasons:
1. If he speaks too clearly, the market will immediately adjust to what the Fed is going to do, and the actual use of their policy instruments will have little impact.
2. He genuinely tries to express the degree of uncertainty inherent in the data and theory underlying economics, as well as the political backdrop.
3. If he answers too quickly and directly, he will get more questions. In basketball, this is called "running down the shot clock."
4. I think he uses obfuscation tactically to make it easier to adjust market expectations. He can give occasional clear statements to bump the bond market where he wants it tactically to go in the short run, which may be different than where he thinks it has to go in the long run.
5. I think he enjoys it.
At present, I think Greenspan wants to keep things near where they are, which allows the economy to grow fairly rapidly to absorb labor market slack. To me, that means targeting the 10-year Treasury between 4.00%-4.50% or so. Unless there is a marked pickup in his favored inflation gauge, or a huge decline in the dollar, I don't see the FOMC being compelled to raise the fed funds rate. To raise rates for the abstract reason of reducing leverage in the fixed income market will not play well politically, particularly in an election year.
All my opinions, but I have been watching the Fed for 20 years... "
(in www.realmoney.com)
-
- Administrador Fórum
- Mensagens: 31013
- Registado: 29/10/2002 4:04
- Localização: Aveiro
Sugere paciência na subida de juros
Greenspan diz que crescimento económico vigoroso ainda não produz inflação
Alan Greenspan , presidente da Reserva Federal dos Estados Unidos, disse hoje que a expansão «vigorosa» da economia americana ainda não produz pressões inflacionistas, sugerindo que a Fed pode continua paciente em subir os juros.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nuno Carregueiro
nc@mediafin.pt
Alan Greenspan , presidente da Reserva Federal dos Estados Unidos, disse hoje que a expansão «vigorosa» da economia americana ainda não produz pressões inflacionistas, sugerindo que a Fed pode continua paciente em subir os juros.
No discurso perante o Congresso dos Estados Unidos, o líder da Fed disse que «até agora, o prolongado período da actual política monetária não promoveu um ambiente em que estejam a ser construídas pressões inflacionistas».
No entanto, reforçou que «como já disse anteriormente, as taxas de juro têm de subir em alguma data no futuro para prevenir pressões no preços».
Com este discurso Greenspan sugere que as taxas de juro nos Estados Unidos, actualmente em 1%, vão subir no futuro, mas que a Fed pode manter o preço do dinheiro por mais tempo, até que surjam sinais de subida nos preços.
Repetindo o discurso que ontem «assustou» os mercados, Greenspan voltou a considerar que a deflação já não é um problema para a economia americana, pois as empresas voltaram a ganhar poder de fixar preços, face à retoma da procura.
O líder da Fed afirmou ainda que a economia americana «parece ter emergido, em meados do ano passado, de um período prolongado de crescimento abaixo do potencial, para entrar numa fase de expansão mais vigorosa».
Greenspan revelou-se ainda optimista com as perspectivas para o mercado de trabalho, que tardava em dar sinais de recuperação, afirmando que as empresas «não têm outra escolha que não aumentar a sua força de trabalho se querem fazer face ao aumento das encomendas».
Nos mercados o discurso de Greenspan tiveram um efeito positivo no euro, que recuperou parte das quedas de ontem, negociando agora nos 1,1907 dólares, mais 0,33% que na véspera. Os índices de acções de Wall Street negociavam a subir, depois de uma abertura em queda.
Greenspan diz que crescimento económico vigoroso ainda não produz inflação
Alan Greenspan , presidente da Reserva Federal dos Estados Unidos, disse hoje que a expansão «vigorosa» da economia americana ainda não produz pressões inflacionistas, sugerindo que a Fed pode continua paciente em subir os juros.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nuno Carregueiro
nc@mediafin.pt
Alan Greenspan , presidente da Reserva Federal dos Estados Unidos, disse hoje que a expansão «vigorosa» da economia americana ainda não produz pressões inflacionistas, sugerindo que a Fed pode continua paciente em subir os juros.
No discurso perante o Congresso dos Estados Unidos, o líder da Fed disse que «até agora, o prolongado período da actual política monetária não promoveu um ambiente em que estejam a ser construídas pressões inflacionistas».
No entanto, reforçou que «como já disse anteriormente, as taxas de juro têm de subir em alguma data no futuro para prevenir pressões no preços».
Com este discurso Greenspan sugere que as taxas de juro nos Estados Unidos, actualmente em 1%, vão subir no futuro, mas que a Fed pode manter o preço do dinheiro por mais tempo, até que surjam sinais de subida nos preços.
Repetindo o discurso que ontem «assustou» os mercados, Greenspan voltou a considerar que a deflação já não é um problema para a economia americana, pois as empresas voltaram a ganhar poder de fixar preços, face à retoma da procura.
O líder da Fed afirmou ainda que a economia americana «parece ter emergido, em meados do ano passado, de um período prolongado de crescimento abaixo do potencial, para entrar numa fase de expansão mais vigorosa».
Greenspan revelou-se ainda optimista com as perspectivas para o mercado de trabalho, que tardava em dar sinais de recuperação, afirmando que as empresas «não têm outra escolha que não aumentar a sua força de trabalho se querem fazer face ao aumento das encomendas».
Nos mercados o discurso de Greenspan tiveram um efeito positivo no euro, que recuperou parte das quedas de ontem, negociando agora nos 1,1907 dólares, mais 0,33% que na véspera. Os índices de acções de Wall Street negociavam a subir, depois de uma abertura em queda.
- Mensagens: 23939
- Registado: 5/11/2002 11:30
- Localização: 4
Ainda não é para já...
Será que o que interessa estará no ultimo paragrafo:
As I have noted previously, the federal funds rate must rise at some point to prevent pressures on price inflation from eventually emerging. As yet, the protracted period of monetary accommodation has not fostered an environment in which broad-based inflation pressures appear to be building. But the Federal Reserve recognizes that sustained prosperity requires the maintenance of price stability and will act, as necessary, to ensure that outcome.
Ainda não sobe agora, parece
As I have noted previously, the federal funds rate must rise at some point to prevent pressures on price inflation from eventually emerging. As yet, the protracted period of monetary accommodation has not fostered an environment in which broad-based inflation pressures appear to be building. But the Federal Reserve recognizes that sustained prosperity requires the maintenance of price stability and will act, as necessary, to ensure that outcome.
Ainda não sobe agora, parece
-
Mec*
WASHINGTON - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress on Wednesday that America's economic recovery has good momentum and that low, short-term interest rates will have to rise at some point, though he didn't say when.
"Looking forward, the prospects for sustaining solid economic growth in the period ahead are good," Greenspan said in prepared testimony to the Joint Economic Committee.
Greenspan, in striking an upbeat tone about the economy, noted a much-awaited improvement in the hiring climate after a long period in which an uneven economic recovery had failed to produce significant increases in the nation's payrolls.
But with the rebound in the economy, some companies are finding it easier to raise their prices, Greenspan said. He also noted that the fall in the value of the U.S. dollar and a strengthening global economy were adding to pricing pressures at home.
While stressing that inflation currently remains low, he said it was the job of the Federal Reserve to be stay on the alert for an unwelcome flare-up in inflation.
"As I have noted previously, the federal funds rate must rise at some point to prevent pressures on price inflation from eventually emerging," Greenspan said. "As yet, the protracted period of monetary accommodation has not fostered an environment in which broad based inflation pressures appear to be building."
Since last June, Greenspan and his colleagues have held the federal funds rate - a key short-term interest rate - at 1 percent, the lowest since 1958. Most economists believe the Fed will leave rates at that level at its next meeting on May 4.
Looking ahead, some economists predict the Fed will begin to push rates higher later this year. But others believe rates might stay where they are into 2005.
Greenspan's comments marked the second signal in two days that the Fed was beginning to edge closer to raising interest rates. Greenspan's remarks before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday sent stocks tumbling as Wall Street investors feared a rate increase would come sooner rather than later.
"The Federal Reserve recognizes that sustained prosperity requires the maintenance of price stability and will act, as necessary, to ensure that outcome," Greenspan said in his testimony Wednesday.
As he did on Tuesday, Greenspan noted that deflation - a prolonged and widespread decline in prices - was no longer a concern as it was this time last year.
But at the same time, inflation for the most part remained tame, especially in the all-important area of wages, Greenspan said. He attributed this in large part to the long period of weak job creation the economy has endured.
Even with a pickup in hiring in recent months, the average duration of unemployment in March was 20 weeks - nearly double the 12 weeks of September 2000.
Greenspan said that while he believed wages - which account for two-thirds of a company's production costs - will start rising as job growth accelerates. But he didn't believe this would set off inflation problems because companies could meet higher payroll costs through higher profits.
"Looking forward, the prospects for sustaining solid economic growth in the period ahead are good," Greenspan said in prepared testimony to the Joint Economic Committee.
Greenspan, in striking an upbeat tone about the economy, noted a much-awaited improvement in the hiring climate after a long period in which an uneven economic recovery had failed to produce significant increases in the nation's payrolls.
But with the rebound in the economy, some companies are finding it easier to raise their prices, Greenspan said. He also noted that the fall in the value of the U.S. dollar and a strengthening global economy were adding to pricing pressures at home.
While stressing that inflation currently remains low, he said it was the job of the Federal Reserve to be stay on the alert for an unwelcome flare-up in inflation.
"As I have noted previously, the federal funds rate must rise at some point to prevent pressures on price inflation from eventually emerging," Greenspan said. "As yet, the protracted period of monetary accommodation has not fostered an environment in which broad based inflation pressures appear to be building."
Since last June, Greenspan and his colleagues have held the federal funds rate - a key short-term interest rate - at 1 percent, the lowest since 1958. Most economists believe the Fed will leave rates at that level at its next meeting on May 4.
Looking ahead, some economists predict the Fed will begin to push rates higher later this year. But others believe rates might stay where they are into 2005.
Greenspan's comments marked the second signal in two days that the Fed was beginning to edge closer to raising interest rates. Greenspan's remarks before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday sent stocks tumbling as Wall Street investors feared a rate increase would come sooner rather than later.
"The Federal Reserve recognizes that sustained prosperity requires the maintenance of price stability and will act, as necessary, to ensure that outcome," Greenspan said in his testimony Wednesday.
As he did on Tuesday, Greenspan noted that deflation - a prolonged and widespread decline in prices - was no longer a concern as it was this time last year.
But at the same time, inflation for the most part remained tame, especially in the all-important area of wages, Greenspan said. He attributed this in large part to the long period of weak job creation the economy has endured.
Even with a pickup in hiring in recent months, the average duration of unemployment in March was 20 weeks - nearly double the 12 weeks of September 2000.
Greenspan said that while he believed wages - which account for two-thirds of a company's production costs - will start rising as job growth accelerates. But he didn't believe this would set off inflation problems because companies could meet higher payroll costs through higher profits.
-
luka'
Realmente... ontem a deflação já não era um tema a considerar e hoje a inflação ainda não é algo que preocupe por demais.
Bom, regressámos a 1994 como afirmavam uma série de analistas. Um sobe e desce dos mercados ao sabor da ameaça de subidas de juros. Pois...
Abraço
dj
Bom, regressámos a 1994 como afirmavam uma série de analistas. Um sobe e desce dos mercados ao sabor da ameaça de subidas de juros. Pois...
Abraço
dj
Cuidado com o que desejas pois todo o Universo pode se conjugar para a sua realização.
-
- Mensagens: 9149
- Registado: 10/11/2002 19:32
- Localização: Planeta Algarve
Aqui está o link para o texto integral:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs ... efault.htm
Um abraço,
Ulisses
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs ... efault.htm
Um abraço,
Ulisses
-
- Administrador Fórum
- Mensagens: 31013
- Registado: 29/10/2002 4:04
- Localização: Aveiro
aqui fica para os que preferem Francês...
Greenspan-Une croissance plus forte justifie une hausse des taux
WASHINGTON, 21 avril (Reuters) - La croissance de l'économie des Etats-Unis s'est renforcée et il se pourrait qu'une hausse des taux d'intérêt s'impose à un moment donné pour juguler toute pression inflationniste, a déclaré mercredi le président de la Réserve fédérale Alan Greenspan.
"Comme je l'ai observé précédemment, le taux des fonds fédéraux devra être relevé à un moment donné pour empêcher l'émergence de pressions inflationnistes sur les prix", a dit Greenspan dans un discours préparé pour la commission économiste mixte du Congrès.
"Pour l'heure, une période prolongée de générosité monétaire n'a pas nourri de contexte où semblent se développer des pressions inflationnistes à grande échelle", a poursuivi Greenspan. "Mais la Réserve fédérale admet qu'une prospérité durable exige la permanence de la stabilité des prix et agira, si nécessaire, pour s'assurer que tel est le cas".
Il semble qu'une période de désinflation, ou de taux d'inflation atones, soit terminée mais une productivité du travail très élevée et des capacités inemployées freinent toute velléité de hausser les prix et "cela devrait continuer pendant encore quelques temps", a-t-il ajouté./WYE
Luka
Greenspan-Une croissance plus forte justifie une hausse des taux
WASHINGTON, 21 avril (Reuters) - La croissance de l'économie des Etats-Unis s'est renforcée et il se pourrait qu'une hausse des taux d'intérêt s'impose à un moment donné pour juguler toute pression inflationniste, a déclaré mercredi le président de la Réserve fédérale Alan Greenspan.
"Comme je l'ai observé précédemment, le taux des fonds fédéraux devra être relevé à un moment donné pour empêcher l'émergence de pressions inflationnistes sur les prix", a dit Greenspan dans un discours préparé pour la commission économiste mixte du Congrès.
"Pour l'heure, une période prolongée de générosité monétaire n'a pas nourri de contexte où semblent se développer des pressions inflationnistes à grande échelle", a poursuivi Greenspan. "Mais la Réserve fédérale admet qu'une prospérité durable exige la permanence de la stabilité des prix et agira, si nécessaire, pour s'assurer que tel est le cas".
Il semble qu'une période de désinflation, ou de taux d'inflation atones, soit terminée mais une productivité du travail très élevée et des capacités inemployées freinent toute velléité de hausser les prix et "cela devrait continuer pendant encore quelques temps", a-t-il ajouté./WYE
Luka
-
Visitante
Viva a todos...
Greenspan: Rates must rise
Fed chairman says inflation in check for now, but economy stronger, and Fed will act eventually.
April 21, 2004: 10:08 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The U.S. economy is growing with more vigor, and interest rates must eventually rise to keep inflation in check, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Wednesday, another hint that a Fed rate hike is nearing.
While the threat of "disinflation," or a lack of corporate pricing power, seems to have faded, inflation is still dormant so far, since labor costs are flat, the central bank chairman said in prepared remarks delivered to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.
"But the Federal Reserve recognizes that sustained prosperity requires the maintenance of price stability and will act, as necessary, to ensure that outcome," he added.
Fed policy makers are scheduled to meet May 4 to discuss the economy and their target for the federal funds rate, an overnight bank lending rate that influences other rates throughout the economy. Few analysts expect a rate increase at that meeting, but market participants expect a rate hike to come at the Fed's August policy meeting.
Fed chairman says inflation in check for now, but economy stronger, and Fed will act eventually.
April 21, 2004: 10:08 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The U.S. economy is growing with more vigor, and interest rates must eventually rise to keep inflation in check, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Wednesday, another hint that a Fed rate hike is nearing.
While the threat of "disinflation," or a lack of corporate pricing power, seems to have faded, inflation is still dormant so far, since labor costs are flat, the central bank chairman said in prepared remarks delivered to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.
"But the Federal Reserve recognizes that sustained prosperity requires the maintenance of price stability and will act, as necessary, to ensure that outcome," he added.
Fed policy makers are scheduled to meet May 4 to discuss the economy and their target for the federal funds rate, an overnight bank lending rate that influences other rates throughout the economy. Few analysts expect a rate increase at that meeting, but market participants expect a rate hike to come at the Fed's August policy meeting.
- Mensagens: 408
- Registado: 11/2/2004 12:57
- Localização: Lisboa
- Mensagens: 1010
- Registado: 5/11/2002 10:43
- Localização: Braga
Discurso de Greenspan
Já foi divulgado o discurso de Greenspan e o mercado parece ter gostado. Logo que possível, deixarei aqui o link para o mesmo.
Ulisses
Ulisses
-
- Administrador Fórum
- Mensagens: 31013
- Registado: 29/10/2002 4:04
- Localização: Aveiro
10 mensagens
|Página 1 de 1
Quem está ligado:
Utilizadores a ver este Fórum: Nenhum utilizador registado e 101 visitantes