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por NOKIA » 16/4/2004 11:08

Nokia first quarter 2004 net sales decline 2% to EUR 6.6 billion with continued good profitability and reported EPS (diluted) EUR 0.17
April 16, 2004



Highlights first quarter 2004
(all comparisons are year on year to first quarter 2003 results regrouped according to 2004 organization):
- Net sales declined 2% to EUR 6.6 billion (EUR 6.8 billion in Q1 2003), up 7% at constant currency
- Nokia operating profit was EUR 1.1 billion (EUR 1.4 billion), with operating margin of 17.2% (20.2%)
- Reported EPS (diluted) was EUR 0.17 (EUR 0.20 including EUR 0.04 from the positive revaluation of the France Telecom receivable and the gain on sales of shares in Nokian Tyres)
- Mobile Phones net sales decreased 15% to EUR 4.3 billion (EUR 5.0 billion) with EUR 1.1 billion operating profit (EUR 1.4 billion) and operating margin of 25.6% (29.0%)
- Multimedia net sales increased 60% to EUR 776 million (EUR 484 million); Enterprise Solutions net sales increased 95% to EUR 189 million (EUR 97 million)
- Healthy mobile device industry volume growth of 29%, according to Nokia's preliminary estimate
- Nokia's overall mobile device volume grew 19% to 44.7 million units, resulting in a 35% market share, according to Nokia's preliminary estimate
- Networks net sales increased 16% to EUR 1.4 billion (EUR 1.2 billion), with EUR 182 million operating profit (EUR 85 million, including a gain of EUR 226 million from the revaluation of the France Telecom receivable) and an operating margin of 12.9% (7.0%)

JORMA OLLILA, CHAIRMAN AND CEO:
Overall mobile device industry volume continued to grow at a very healthy pace of 29% in the first quarter 2004, according to our preliminary estimate. This is clearly a vibrant market that is expanding into new areas and attracting many new users every day.

Nokia's own first-quarter mobile device volume growth of 19%, slower than the market, reflected that Nokia was not able to fully exploit the usual seasonal market pick up in March. As a result, our sales for the quarter did not meet our expectations and our mobile device market share declined to 35%, based on our preliminary estimate. However, our long-term mobile device market share target remains unchanged at 40%.

Despite Mobile Phones and Multimedia device sales not meeting our expectations, overall we maintained good, solid profitability illustrating the company's ability to manage costs. I am pleased with the strong growth in Networks' sales and the Networks' operating margin of 12.9%, which reflected the positive product mix as well as the full impact of the restructuring measures taken in early 2003. Our new Enterprise Solutions business group is off to a good start with the success of messaging devices, such as the Nokia 6820.

Nokia is committed to maintaining a broad mobile device product portfolio covering products in all markets and most technologies. Our mobile device product plans reflect this commitment to bring competitive products to market in all segments and in a wide range of designs and technologies. We have started to ship six phone models since the beginning of this year, including our first fashion-category fold model, the Nokia 7200. To date this year, we have also launched nine phone models: five with cameras, including our first mega-pixel camera phone; four CDMA phones; and the second generation N-Gage, the N-Gage QD game deck. We plan to have a total of approximately 40 product launches in 2004, with shipments weighted towards the second half of the year.

The organizational changes, which we began implementing during the quarter, are designed to increasingly enhance our ability over time to realize the specific opportunities in mobile voice, consumer mobile multimedia and mobile enterprise solutions. At the same time, we expect to improve our research and development efficiency and effectiveness as well as our logistical strength.

We are not satisfied with our sales development during the first quarter. I realize that improvements require additional effort and a lot of hard work, but I have confidence in the ability of the Nokia team to address and meet customer needs in all segments by further strengthening our product portfolio.

NOKIA Q1 RESULTS - REPORTED

EUR million Q1/2004 Q1/2003* Change (%)
Net sales 6 625 6 773 -2
Mobile Phones 4 251 4 989 -15
Multimedia 776 484 60
Networks 1 415 1 217 16
Enterprise Solutions 189 97 95
Operating profit 1 138 1 370 -17
Mobile Phones 1 089 1 449 -25
Multimedia 2 -41
Networks 182 85 114
Enterprise Solutions -31 -93
Operating margin (%) 17.2 20.2
Mobile Phones (%) 25.6 29.0
Multimedia (%) 0.3 -8.5
Networks (%) 12.9 7.0
Enterprise Solutions (%) -16.4 -95.9
Financial income and expenses 76 80 -5
Profit before tax and minority interests 1 210 1 446 -16
Net profit 816 977 -16
EPS, EUR
Basic 0.17 0.20 -15
Diluted 0.17 0.20 -15

* Business Group Q1/2003 figures are based on the (unaudited) regrouped 2003 financial results as published on March 25, 2004.
All reported Q1/2004 figures can be found in the tables on pages 7 - 12.

BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT AND FORECASTS

First-quarter sales negatively impacted by lower volumes and the product mix in mobile devices
Nokia's first-quarter net sales decreased 2% to EUR 6.6 billion compared to first quarter 2003. On a constant currency basis, group net sales would have increased 7% year on year.

Mobile Phones first-quarter net sales decreased 15% year on year to EUR 4.3 billion despite higher unit volumes. Volume growth was very strong in Latin America, healthy in China, slower in the rest of Asia and North America, and flat in the Europe/Africa area. Net sales were strong in Latin America and flat in North America, but were more than offset by the decline in the Europe/Africa area and Asia, including China. Net sales in all sales areas, except for North America, were impacted by a product mix more weighted towards the low end. In addition, net sales in Europe and the United States were impacted by gaps in the mid-range of the portfolio.

Multimedia first-quarter net sales increased 60% to EUR 776 million. The performance of imaging devices, especially the Nokia 6600, was positive; however, Nokia N-Gage sales were disappointing.

Networks first-quarter net sales increased 16% year on year to EUR 1.4 billion as a result of a favorable product mix and strong sales, especially in China and Latin America.

Enterprise Solutions first-quarter net sales increased 95% to EUR 189 million mainly due to the success of the Nokia 6820 messaging device.

First quarter profitability solid
Nokia Group's operating profit was EUR 1.1 billion (EUR 1.4 billion) and operating margin was 17.2% (20.2%).

Mobile Phones' operating profit was EUR 1.1 billion (EUR 1.4 billion), with a 25.6% (29.0%) operating margin. The operating margin was impacted by lower sales.

For the first quarter, Multimedia showed a small operating profit of EUR 2 million, with a 0.3% operating margin driven by sales of the Nokia 6600.

Networks' operating profit continued, for the second consecutive quarter, to exceed the company's expectations and was EUR 182 million (EUR 85 million, including a gain of EUR 226 million from the revaluation the France Telecom receivable) with a 12.9% (7.0%) operating margin, reflecting higher than expected sales and the streamlined cost structure.

Enterprise Solutions' operating loss of EUR 31 million was smaller than expected due to the positive market reception of the Nokia 6820. Operating margin was -16.4%.

Capital structure remains strong
Nokia's capital structure remains strong as reflected by the cash position of EUR 11.4 billion as of March 31, 2004, and a net debt-to-equity ratio (gearing) of -77%.

During the first quarter, the company used EUR 642 million for share buybacks, bringing the total used for buybacks, pursuant to the 2003 Annual General Meeting authorization, close to EUR 2.0 billion. Additionally, as authorized by the Annual General Meeting on March 25, 2004, Nokia intends to continue share buybacks using a maximum of EUR 3.0 billion for share repurchases during the second quarter 2004 and the following three quarters.

Additionally, Nokia has today paid EUR 1.4 billion in dividends from 2003 earnings, bringing the total amount distributed to shareholders during the past twelve months very close to Nokia's total 2003 net profit of EUR 3.6 billion.

Industry volume growth an estimated 29% for first quarter 2004
Mobile device industry volume grew at an estimated 29% year on year and is estimated to have reached 128 million units. Nokia's mobile device volumes grew 19% year on year to reach 44.7 million units, resulting in an estimated market share of 35%. This would represent a 3% decline compared to the first quarter 2003 and a 2% sequential decline based on an updated industry volume estimate of 148 million units in the fourth quarter 2003.

Industry Outlook
This year, Nokia expects that the mobile device market will continue to develop positively and currently estimates volume growth for the full-year 2004 to reach the high teens.

On the mobile network infrastructure side, the company expects the market to develop steadily and currently estimates that the overall market will be slightly up compared to last year in euro terms in 2004.

Nokia outlook for second quarter and full year 2004
Second quarter net sales for Nokia Group are expected to be flat or slightly below the second quarter 2003 (EUR 7.0 billion) net sales. Reported EPS (diluted) in the second quarter is expected to be in the range of EUR 0.13 to EUR 0.15 (EUR 0.13, including a EUR 0.06 negative impact from the Nokia Networks restructuring charge of EUR 399 million).

Nokia expects that its mobile device sales and margins should benefit towards the end of the year from the new products launched in 2004. The products, with shipments weighted towards the end of the year, are designed to further enhance Nokia's product portfolio. In addition, Nokia intends to continue to achieve economies of scale in the growing mobile device market. The company also expects the new organizational structure to enable Nokia to better focus on the specific opportunities in the mobile voice, multimedia and enterprise markets.

MOBILE PHONES IN THE FIRST QUARTER
In the first quarter, Mobile Phones started shipping three new phone models: the Nokia 2300 phone for first-time users, the Nokia 7200, a fashion-inspired fold-model, and the Nokia 6230 phone for mobile professionals. In April, Nokia launched the Nokia 3120 targeted at youthful consumers in the Asia-Pacific market.

To further expand Nokia's CDMA product portfolio, Mobile Phones launched four new CDMA handsets: the Nokia 6255, a fold-model camera phone; the Nokia 3205 camera phone for wider audiences; and two other color-screen handsets, the Nokia 6012 and Nokia 6015i.

Nokia continued to pioneer the evolution of the CDMA protocol with a live demonstration of next generation CDMA2000 1X EV-DV technology. Additionally, Nokia highlighted a number of services designed specifically for CDMA operators worldwide.

MULTIMEDIA IN THE FIRST QUARTER
Nokia expanded its imaging portfolio by announcing the Nokia 6620 imaging smartphone for the Americas and the Nokia 7610, the company's first mega pixel imaging device. Both of these Series 60 devices include rich imaging features, streaming video and personal information management. Nokia also collaborated with Kodak, HP and Adobe on digital image sharing, editing and printing solutions and launched the 20-gigabyte Nokia Image Album.

Shipments of the Nokia 7600 3G WCDMA imaging device started in several new countries, bringing the total number of countries where the Nokia 7600 is available to 50.

In April, Nokia launched the N-Gage QD, the company's second mobile game deck. During the first quarter, Nokia also broadened the N-Gage games portfolio with the launch of several new titles.

NETWORKS IN THE FIRST QUARTER
The strong flow of GSM, GPRS and EDGE deals included new agreements with CTI Movil in Argentina, Smart in the Philippines, FCC/Atheer Telecom in Iraq, T-Mobile in the USA, Finnet in Finland, Saudi Telecom Company in Saudi Arabia, and TeliaSonera in the Nordic countries.

Nokia's growth market network systems showed good progress with the announced deliveries of the Nokia ConnectSite Solution to 12 provincial operators in China.

Nokia gained a new 3G customer when T-Mobile in the Netherlands chose Nokia as their sole WCDMA supplier. WCDMA rollouts proceeded steadily, and to date, Nokia has been a supplier to nine of the 21 commercially launched 3G networks in the world. Nokia has been also rolling out 3G networks to 26 customers in 15 countries.

Commercial deliveries of Nokia's Push to talk over Cellular (PoC) network products started, and Nokia signed five commercial deals. The first service launches are expected during the second quarter 2004. Nokia is actively participating in the creation of open standards for PoC within the Open Mobile Alliance (OMA), and all of Nokia's PoC networks products will be upgradeable to the OMA standard once it is available.

During the quarter, Nokia also made broadband deals in Russia and Sweden, and TETRA system deals in Brunei and China.

ENTERPRISE SOLUTIONS IN THE FIRST QUARTER
Global shipments of Nokia's new messaging device, the Nokia 6820 started. Its Blackberry(TM)-enabled variant became available in Europe and Asia. The Nokia 6810 messaging device also began selling in Europe at the beginning of April.

The new Nokia 9500 Communicator was launched, and IBM and Nokia agreed to deliver mobile solutions to enable greater workforce mobility. Nokia announced or reaffirmed alliances with leading IT companies that support its new enterprise-grade Communicator family.

Nokia Secure Access System, an SSL-based remote access solution with clientless VPN functionality, had early success in the market with over 135 customers in the first quarter 2004.


NOKIA IN JANUARY-MARCH 2004
(International Accounting Standards, IAS, comparisons given to the first quarter 2003 results, unless otherwise indicated. Business Group first quarter 2003 figures are based on the unaudited, regrouped 2003 financial results as published on March 25, 2004.)

Nokia's net sales decreased by 2% to EUR 6 625 million (EUR 6 773 million). Sales of Mobile Phones decreased by 15% to EUR 4 251 million (EUR 4 989 million). Sales of Multimedia increased by 60% to EUR 776 million (EUR 484 million). Sales of Networks increased by 16% to EUR 1 415 million (EUR 1 217 million). Sales of Enterprise Solutions increased by 95% and totaled EUR 189 million (EUR 97 million).

Operating profit decreased by 17% to EUR 1 138 million (EUR 1 370 million), representing an operating margin of 17.2% (20.2%). Operating profit in Mobile Phones decreased by 25% to EUR 1 089 million (EUR 1 449 million), representing an operating margin of 25.6% (29.0%). Operating profit in Multimedia increased to EUR 2 million (operating loss EUR 41 million), representing an operating margin of 0.3% (-8.5%). Operating profit in Networks increased to EUR 182 million (EUR 85 million), representing an operating margin of 12.9% (7.0%). Networks operating profit in the first quarter 2003 included a gain of EUR 226 million from the revaluation of the France Telecom receivable. Enterprise Solutions reported an operating loss of EUR 31 million (operating loss of EUR 93 million). Common Group expenses totaled EUR 104 million (EUR 30 million, including the gain of EUR 56 million on the sale of the remaining shares of Nokian Tyres Ltd).

Financial income totaled EUR 76 million (EUR 80 million). Profit before tax and minority interests was EUR 1 210 million (EUR 1 446 million). Net profit totaled EUR 816 million (EUR 977 million). Earnings per share decreased to EUR 0.17 (basic) and to EUR 0.17 (diluted), compared with EUR 0.20 (basic) and EUR 0.20, (diluted) (including EUR 0.04 from the positive revaluation of the France Telecom receivable and the gain on sales of shares in Nokian Tyres) in the first quarter 2003.

The average number of employees during the quarter was 51 665. At March 31, 2004, Nokia employed a total of 51 725 people (51 359 people at December 31, 2003).

At March 31, 2004, net debt-to-equity ratio (gearing) was -77% (-71% at December 31, 2003). During the first quarter 2004, capital expenditure amounted to EUR 80 million (EUR 100 million).

At the end of March, outstanding long-term customer loans totaled EUR 365 million, while guarantees issued on behalf of third parties totaled EUR 33 million. In addition, Nokia had financing commitments totaling EUR 394 million. After the end of the quarter, Hutchison 3G UK prepaid the entire outstanding amount of EUR 365 million and cancelled all commitments totaling EUR 309 million under the customer financing facility from Nokia.

Nokia repurchased through its share repurchase plan a total of 38 057 700 shares on the Helsinki Exchanges at an aggregate price of approximately EUR 647 416 736 during the period from January 23 to February 27. The price paid was based on the market price at the time of repurchase. The shares were repurchased to be used for the purposes specified in the authorization held by the Board. The aggregate par value of the shares purchased was EUR 2 283 462, representing approximately 0.79% of the share capital of the company and of the total voting rights. These new holdings did not have any significant effect on the relative holdings of the other shareholders of the company nor on their voting power.

On March 31, 2004, Nokia and its subsidiary companies owned 133 819 670 Nokia shares. The shares had an aggregate par value of EUR 8 029 180.20, representing approximately 2.8% of the share capital of the company and of the total voting rights. The total number of shares on March 31, 2004, was 4 796 292 460 and the share capital was EUR 287 777 547.60.

The Annual General Meeting on March 25, 2004, resolved to cancel shares repurchased during the past four quarters, a total of 132 536 200 shares. The cancellation was effected on April 14, 2004, reducing the total number of shares correspondingly.

Complete press release with tables is available at http://www.nokia.com/results2004Q1e.pdf.

It should be noted that certain statements herein which are not historical facts, including, without limitation, those regarding: A) the timing of product and solution launches and deliveries; B) our ability to develop, implement and commercialize new products, solutions and technologies; C) expectations regarding market growth, developments and structural changes; D) expectations and targets for our results of operations; E) the outcome of pending and threatened litigation; and F) statements preceded by ''believe,'' ''expect,'' ''anticipate,'' ''foresee'' or similar expressions are forward-looking statements. Because these statements involve risks and uncertainties, actual results may differ materially from the results that we currently expect. Factors that could cause these differences include, but are not limited to: 1) developments in the mobile communications industry and the broader mobility industry, including the development of the mobile software and services market, as well as industry consolidation and other structural changes; 2) timing and success of the introduction and roll out of new products and solutions; 3) demand for and market acceptance of our products and solutions; 4) the impact of changes in technology and the success of our product and solution development; 5) the intensity of competition in the mobility industry and changes in the competitive landscape; 6) our ability to control the variety of factors affecting our ability to reach our targets and give accurate forecasts; 7) pricing pressures; 8) the availability of new products and services by network operators and other market participants; 9) general economic conditions globally and in our most important markets; 10) our success in maintaining efficient manufacturing and logistics as well as the high quality of our products and solutions; 11) inventory management risks resulting from shifts in market demand; 12) our ability to source quality components without interruption and at acceptable prices; 13) our success in collaboration arrangements relating to technologies, software or new products and solutions; 14) the success, financial condition, and performance of our collaboration partners, suppliers and customers; 15) any disruption to information technology systems and networks that our operations rely on; 16) our ability to have access to the complex technology involving patents and other intellectual property rights included in our products and solutions at commercially acceptable terms and without infringing any protected intellectual property rights; 17) developments under large, multi-year contracts or in relation to major customers; 18) the management of our customer financing exposure; 19) exchange rate fluctuations, including, in particular, fluctuations between the euro, which is our reporting currency, and the US dollar, the UK pound sterling and the Japanese yen; 20) our ability to recruit, retain and develop appropriately skilled employees; 21) our ability to implement our new organizational structure; and 22) the impact of changes in government policies, laws or regulations; as well as 23) the risk factors specified on pages 12 to 21 of the company's Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2003 under "Item 3.D Risk Factors."

NOKIA, HELSINKI, FINLAND - APRIL 16, 2004

Media and Investor Contacts:
Corporate Communications, tel. +358 7180 34495 or +358 7180 34900
Investor Relations Europe, tel. +358 7180 34289
Investor Relations US, tel. +1 972 894 4880
www.nokia.com

- Nokia plans to report Q2 2004 results on July 15, 2004, and Q3 2004 results on October 14, 2004.

Complete press release with tables is available at http://www.nokia.com/results2004Q1e.pdf.
NOKIA
 

por ICEMAN » 15/4/2004 23:28

Nokia: anuncia resultados dia 16/Abril às 11h, boa sorte!
ICEMAN
 

por hugo » 15/4/2004 21:40

edite estrela,para corrigires deves primeiro percebe o contexto e a frase encontra-se no passado e nao no futuro,por isso DEGRADARAM-SE e nao degradar-se-ao que se encontra no futuro...
referia-se ao profit anterior e nao no futuro

um abraço
hugo
 

não é "degradarão -se"

por Edite Estrela » 15/4/2004 21:26

é: degradar-se-ão :roll:
Edite Estrela
 

a tecnica e os fundamentais

por vmerck5 » 15/4/2004 13:01

os fundamentais degradarão -se significativamente com aquele profit- warning o q levou a um autentico sell-off, na sexta-feira esperão-se mais noticias onde são reveladas as contas do 1 trimestre de 2004 deverão ser maus,mas temos que ter em conta que o mercado ja descontou esse resultado. Assim vemos q A NOK tem realizado minimos logo nada de entradas longas a serem indicadas pela tecnica, existe talvez a possibilidade dum rebound devido a exaustão do vendedor podendo o titulo ir aos 15.50/15.00 mas sera bom entrar antes ou depois dos resultados? isto é jogo.
Eu caso esta caia com o divulgar dos resultados, abaixo dos 13 irei comprar algumas.......mas não vou antecipar resultados. ......para jogar vou ao casino
vmerck5
 

por Ertai » 15/4/2004 12:21

Pata-Hari Escreveu:Ertai,

"Time to Buy !".

Já agora explica lá o que tem a vela que te faça parecer boa e bom ponto de entrada. Eu vejo mais uma vela encarnada num desenho que mais parece de uma faca em queda. Sem qualquer reacção, francamente não vejo porque alguém entraria aqui a não ser em pura antecipação de resultados ou de qq coisa.

Nota que hoje será um dia especial, dias de resultados raramente não dão dias de uma volatilidade incrivel na nokia.


Desculpa Pata, não ter respondido.. esqueci-me desta thread :?

Primeiro eu bem disse que era um "bitaite", apenas o disse porque aquela vela parece que indica uma inversão de tendência, e sim claro que precisamos da próxima vela para o confirmar!

Parece que apenas confirma que vai descer mais, de qualquer maneira esperemos pela abertura dos states pois as coisas podem mudar.

Já agora, também era uma boa altura para mudança de tendência uma vez que vão sair os resultados da NOKIA e existe uma boa probabilidade para haver uma reacção positiva nos mercados uma vez que eles já fizeram o profit warning..
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por Patdav » 15/4/2004 11:10

Bom dia TRSM :wink:


(só agora vi o teu gráfico)

Sim....um Hammer (martelo), se assim lhe quiseres chamar.

Agora que vi melhor no teu gráfico, acho que o “takuri, hammer, martelo” formado, não é dos melhores, pois a sombra inferior deve ser no mínimo o dobro do tamanho do corpo


O que é fascinante nesta figura é que ela pode indicar reversão de alta ou de baixa, dependendo aonde se encontra no trade:

1. Se ocorre após um trade de baixa, em um fundo denomina-se martelo assim como se o mercado estivesse martelando uma base. A palavra japonesa para esta figura é takuri. Significa o efeito de "algo que está tentando atingir a profundidade da água sentindo seu fundo."

2. Se ocorre após um rally de alta, indica que o movimento anterior pode estar acabando, e será denominado enforcado. Tem este nome pois parece mesmo um homem pendurado com as pernas balançando.
É o termo é perfeito para uma figura que indica que um trade de alta está por acabar.


Critérios que aumentam a intensidade do padrão: Tamanho da sombra inferior. Quanto maior, mais expressiva é a figura. A cor do corpo não tem importância fundamental, mas é preferível um martelo com corpo de alta e um enforcado com corpo de baixa. O martelo (reversão de fundo) é uma figura mais importante que o enforcado (reversão no topo). O martelo pode ser considerado uma figura de reversão per si. Já com o enforcado deve se aguardar confirmação no dia seguinte com um pregrão de queda.

É fácil entender porque o enforcado necessita de confirmação. O mercado está confiante, em alta. Aí aparece o enforcado. No dia do enforcado, o mercado abre próximo à máxima, e ai começa a vender (cair) fortemente. Depois de atingir um fundo, o mercado reage e fecha próximo à abertura. Este não é o tipo de comportamento que lhe faz pensar que o enforcado sugere reversão. Mas o fato é que, por um momento o mercado caiu expressivamente, ocorreram vendas fortes. Logo o mercado que estava confiante em alta, agora está frágil e pode parar de subir.
Se o mercado abrir no dia seguinte em queda, aqueles que compraram na abertura ou fechamento do dia do enforcado estão agora pendurados com uma posição perdedora. Logo, o princípio geral para o enforcado é que quanto maior o Gap de baixa entre o enforcado e a abertura seguinte, maior será a chance que o enforcado será mesmo um topo. Outra confirmação do enforcado como um topo seria um bozu de queda no dia seguinte.


Fica a informação, sem qq opinião.


abraços para todos
Patdav
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por TRSM » 15/4/2004 10:59

Apenas para concluir que a quebra dos minimos de ontem deita por terra o hammer.

abraço

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por Patdav » 15/4/2004 10:54

Pata-Hari Escreveu:Eu não estou a tentar defender que vai cair, até acho que consolida, com o volume a diminuir, que a pressão vendedora está a desaparecer e que a probabilidade é que os resultados agora batam as novas estimativas, lol (é ridiculo, mas já aconteceu no passado). O que queria entender é porquê que a vela de ontem deu um bom sinal.



Cara Pata-Hari,

Deve haver alguma confusão, em momento algum eu fiz qualquer alusão a um teu comentário.

Partilho da tua posição, não estou a tentar defender nada.......não acho que vá cair, nem que consolida....... nem que vai subir!!

Vi o gráfico................ e a figura chamou-me a atenção.... .um Takuri é um Takuri, e como já dito vem em qualquer manual de AT.

Fiz o comentário em jeito de informação (como é habitual eu fazer no fórum) como poderia ter, se fosse o caso alertar as pessoas para ....”um canal”......”um triangulo”.....”uma cunha”....
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por TRSM » 15/4/2004 10:49

Realmente ontem tivemos um hammer(figura de inversão), que necessita de confirmação na sessão seguinte.

Ideal era a abertura de hoje ter-se dado dentro do body, mas tal não aconteceu. Embora a sessão ainda tenha muito para dar, a candle que está a fazer não e a melhor para confirmar essa inversão.

abraço

TRSM
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por Pata-Hari » 15/4/2004 10:39

Patdav, no meu écran só apareceu um nome com um comentário. Nem me aparece o que define a figura (se é uma vela, se são 3 velas, se são 5 velas), nem a explicação do porquê que pode definir um fundo.

Eu não estou a tentar defender que vai cair, até acho que consolida, com o volume a diminuir, que a pressão vendedora está a desaparecer e que a probabilidade é que os resultados agora batam as novas estimativas, lol (é ridiculo, mas já aconteceu no passado). O que queria entender é porquê que a vela de ontem deu um bom sinal.
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por Patdav » 15/4/2004 10:35

Bom dia Pata-Hari,


O meu comentário não foi um palpite.

O que eu fiz foi apresentar uma definição, que pode ser confirmada em qualquer manual de AT.

No entanto, pelo gráfico apresentado ainda me ficam algumas duvidas....gostaria de ver mais em pormenor....(talvez um gráfico de prazo mais curto, mas não tenho).

Por outro lado convém ressalvar que não é obrigatório que a figura apresentada siga os manuais de AT.....


Obrigado
Patdav
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por Pata-Hari » 15/4/2004 10:33

Tens toda a razão, itsi. fui ao site deles e diz dia 16 (http://www.nokia.com/nokia/0,8764,106,00.html) . Não tem é a hora :(
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por itisi100 » 15/4/2004 10:28

Peço desculpa pela intromissão, ms acho que os resultados sao divulgados amanhã.
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por Pata-Hari » 15/4/2004 10:24

Porque...?
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por Patdav » 15/4/2004 10:22

Bom dia a todos :wink:

Takuri


A figura apresentada (no gráfico do Soeirinho) pode servir como um indicador de fundo, de reversão, interrompendo a queda anterior.


abraços
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por Pata-Hari » 15/4/2004 10:22

Há sim, mas confesso que não sei a que horas.
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Pata

por cmafonso » 15/4/2004 10:18

Ha alguma apresentaçao de resultados da nokia prevista para hoje?obrigado.


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por Pata-Hari » 15/4/2004 9:53

Um ressalto depois de uma queda de 20% é obviamente uma hipotese. Mas quantos de nós sabem "trade-ar" ressaltos? se for apenas um ressalto é a velha história da dança das cadeiras.

Do ponto de vista dos resultados, os maus (espera-se) já sairam cá para fora há 5 ou 6 dias e já sairam os novos downgrades e as novas expectativas reajustadas. Faz pouco sentido pensar que agora os resultados tenham mais surpresas negativas e é bem possivel que já estejam descontados e que este seja um bom ponto de entrada.

Agora, a vela de ontem deu uma indicação de entrada? eu não vejo lá nada disso, caiu 2 ou 3%, recuperou um bocado para o fecho mas nem recuperou totalmente. Não vejo como se tira a conclusão que é o inicio do ressalto ou da inversão a partir de uma vela assim.
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Nokia

por jarc » 15/4/2004 9:46

Surpreende-vos um ressalto, ou olhando para o comportamento do título é uma hipótese a ter em conta? Amanhã é um bom dia para confirmar ou infirmar essa possibilidade.
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Nokia

por P.M. » 15/4/2004 8:42

Não, não está a preços de 1999. Está a preços de fim de 2003!
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por Pata-Hari » 15/4/2004 8:38

A minha pergunta refere-se á vela parecer boa para uma entrada longa, nada mais. E explicitamente eu referi que poderiam haver outras razões além da vela.
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Nokia

por Visitante » 15/4/2004 8:31

Pata, a faca que referes já caíu assim diversas vezes nos últimos tempos. Acontece que, quase sempre a propósito de uma pequena notícia, alguém a apanhou e a atirou bem para cima. Vai daí, há quem entre longo na expectativa de uma subida.Claro que há probabilidades de sucesso e claro que só com um enorme rombo nos mercados caírá muito mais. Assim por alto deve estar a preços de 1999.
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por Pata-Hari » 15/4/2004 8:13

E mais... tal como foi comentado atrás, a nokia já fez o profit warning há uns dias, se agora "surpreender" acertando nas expectativas criadas há 5 dias, lol, não seria uma anormalidade.
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por Pata-Hari » 15/4/2004 8:12

Ertai,

"Time to Buy !".

Já agora explica lá o que tem a vela que te faça parecer boa e bom ponto de entrada. Eu vejo mais uma vela encarnada num desenho que mais parece de uma faca em queda. Sem qualquer reacção, francamente não vejo porque alguém entraria aqui a não ser em pura antecipação de resultados ou de qq coisa.

Nota que hoje será um dia especial, dias de resultados raramente não dão dias de uma volatilidade incrivel na nokia.
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