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[Dwer]

Market Force: Bearish. On a higher open and early push up in prices look for downside pressure to continue.

Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, April 13, 2004:
Trade summary: 1) B@1139./.50 S@1134.50 -4.50

2)B@1134.75/S@1134.25 -.50

3)S@1133.50/B@1129.00 +4.50

Total:-.50

TCF2003 Summary: Market was exhibiting a Bearish High Five but with a declining TRIN below .80 and No Bear Ugly news. TCF2003 would have bought the B/D -2/4 at 1135.75 to 1133.75. stop at 1130.75 (B/O -6pts -1.00 when buying -2/4) Results: stopped out at 1130.75 for 3-5 pts. loss on the day. (these are not actual losses in Tuesday's trading but are for temporary research purposes for results of our 2003 system compared to current updated methods as per manual.)

Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us on this Wednesday.

Our Headline Call was looking for higher prices on Tuesday but had issued a CAUTION that if the market OPENED HIGHER AND RAN HIGHER FIRST that we could see the re-emergence of the new Sell Mode.

This is exactly what we got on Tuesday with a gap up +4 handles on the open which formed the highs around 1148.50.

Our tougher resistance we had pegged at 1151.00 with the prices fading our rapidly from the open and High at 1148.50.

On Thursday of last week I had made 2 quotes in relation to the Sell Mode "opening up" and showing us a big down day to set the lower mode in motion. Here they are:

"Next level goal one of the new Sell Mode if we can get today to really kick in lower will be 1126.00 but this is NOT expected today."

"Support under that would be 1133.50 and below that we would start approaching our 1126.00 first goal lower."

Tuesdays's low was 1126.50 with the full Sell Mode kicking in Tuesday. Reaching this first goal lower so quickly tells me that we should be going much lower. More on this below.

Here is the summary from our LIVE INTRADAY UPDATES service in which we daily follow the market live along with updates on Trailblazer, TCF2003 setups that we use today in relation to TB, High Five, Market Profile/Value Area, special indicators and reports from the floor as needed. Also special insight into the workings of the markets and how to read the Candlesticks.

Tuesday's Wrap Up: We wanted to get long earlier after the Hour One pivots had set in and were looking for a move back towards the B/O.

We got long at 1139.00/.50 on a pullback on a TB chart formation lower. Prices held up for a bit but then pulled back towards the BreakDown at 1137.75. We tried to hang on looking for the B/D minus -2 pts to hold at 1135.75 but no luck as they moved lower and hit our stop at 1134.50 for a -4.50 pts.

We saw support coming in on a 5th level TB move lower and re-entered long at 1134.75 anticipating the B/O-2/4 to hold. I got signals coming in warning of a pending Crash Alert and we got out of the long position for a small .50 loss.

Waiting for a pop up to go short we entirely reversed our positions. Knowing when to reverse like this is an important skill that is necessary to learn in trading the S&P500 futures to be able to make back losses and also continue trading on the right side of the market.

We calculated our official short price at 1133.50 and gradually the market started to cave in below the BreakDown -4.00 at 1133.50 which escalated the decline. We held short and covered on lower prices at 1129.00 or lower for a +4.50 profit on the trade.

In a market situation like today it is difficult to know when a bottom is forming especially when the volume is not that strong. The clues are less. Anyway we covered at a decent spot with the lows coming in at 1126.25 just 2.75 points away.

Today's Call & Briefing:
We are bearish in our Headline Call Market Force and we are going to be looking for prices to head lower on a higher opening and early rally attempt.

At this point there are too many BULLS trying to buy this dip expecting continued higher prices soon so we should see that attitude get cleaned out some with some real panic selling coming in soon.

As quoted above we had been talking about the 1126.00 first goal lower for about a week and with this quick move to 1126.50 on the low today this is another sign for lower action. It was simply too quick without exhausting the downside Market Force indicators.

On a higher opening and an early push up today this should load more bulls into the idea that prices are going to recover today. Not expected.

How to play this: We would only want to trade today on the short side of an early pop up. If we get a lower open and early drop it is going to be a little more tricky. I would prefer to trade from the short side today but let's see how the numbers pan out.

If there is some heavy exhausion liquidation selling then we can attempt a buy but only on a strong washout situation. I am expecting that this could occur but later in the session.

Value Area: 1,126.60 - 1,139.00
Now we have some Value Area as the ranges open up. It's amazing to think that this type of range we saw on Tuesday was the normal average range througout 2003. Would be nice if it would continue.

Look for top of Value Area resistance for lower prices. Trade below 1126.00 is very bearish as we move lower possibly stretching back to the 1100 handle if these bulls won't stop buying the dips right now.

Excessive bearzzz jumping in and getting dramatic about the short side/collapse of the whold world/ same old perma Bear song and dance...will bring in support and we can get a rally going again. Watch the news a little bit (not too much) for clues about the suits they bring on for commentary. Are they mega bullish or Bearish? You know a bottom is in when they bring out Pretcher.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,120.25 - 1,121.25
We want to buy in this area on an EARLY PUSH UP IN PRICES that collapse down to this price. That would find support here.

On a flat to lower opening and erosion early forget about it. This would not be such good support but 1116.00 would be better. Watch for Trailblazer formations there to get long on a washout type sell off.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,142.25 - 1,141.25
We can sell em here if they ever get up here. Not likely today as we are heading lower on any early pop up to higher prices.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,137.40
Once they blew through the Pit Bull yesterday it was melt down time. At first we were expecting price might push back up and at least find some support here yesterday but when I got some Crash Alert signals and I saw we kept hovering below the Pit Bull (was 1136.70 yesterday) I knew we had to get short and we did.

These markets are playing all kinds of games lately. In fact early yesterday, as the High Five were looking really bearish the TRIN dropped down below .75. That was one key reason I got long initially. In 2003 a signal like that was a "No Brainer" for a 5 point rally. Not in 2004...big surprise and then we had those Crash Alert signals come in. Very conflicting reads sometimes lately.

Pro Trader's Action
Be careful today as we are in the concluding part of a pattern that could be tricky. The best path would be to see if we get a higher opening and early run up. That would be good for finding a Trailblazer formation to SHORT AND HOLD for a longer day trend type run.

A lower open and lower early mild run....watch out. Could be a very difficult pattern to decipher.

Join us on the LIVE UPDATE SERVICE and dechipher the action with us.

Look forward to seeing you in the action. All the best of luck and success. Mohan