Mohan 13/04/04
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Mohan 13/04/04
Market Force: Bullish. Look to stay on the Buy side today for market to rally especially on a flat to lower opening move lower.
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, April 12, 2004:
1) S@1144.00/ B@ 1144.25/ -.25
TOTAL: -.25
TCF2003: No trade setup occured for this system. We had a very bullish High Five Monday and the exact TCF2003 System setup would have been to Sell the BreakOut +2-4 points or in the zone of 1147.75-49.75. This price area was not even closely approached today which was surprising considering the extremely bullish High Five. This High Five aberration is another symptom of the underlying change in the market structure that I have been talking about that has occured in 2004. This same aberration occured on Friday's market where the S&P500 sold off dramatically from the BreakDown with a Bullish/ Neutral High Five.
Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.
The markets entered a very quiet period today after the holiday trading in a very small, tight 3 pt. actual trade range after the open.
We had waited most of the session looking for a possible opportunity to make some money and got short later in the session. We saw a 3rd Level Up chart formation on Trailblazer which is a precision floor traders method we use to enter trades. We saw a very small pullback to 1142.50 and that was all the market could give today to the downside.
As per instruction on our Live Update Service we got out when the market returned to 1144.00 and held.
1144.00 still continues to be the key number we have been discussing since last Wednesday in relation to the market being in a Sell Mode or in aberration on that Sell Mode.
So a scratch day today with the markets going nowhere fast in either direction.
Today's Call & Briefing:
We are making a call for a rally today based on our 18 proprietary indicators shift in Market Force direction.
Ideally we will get a flat to lower opening and an early pullback which should facilitate the bullish Market Force UNLESS there is a very strong, bearish High Five based on some difficult news coming out.
CAUTION: If the market GAPS UP and runs up quickly and substantially then the Bearish action will still be intact on higher prices. We are not expecting this but this is just a Caution in case this does occur. I will have specific and exact instructions on our LIVE SERVICE UPDATE if indeed this does occur.
Lately it seems we have been in a continuous stream of Bear Ugly type news and the market is basically digesting it and maintaining a stance at our 1144.00 "Line in the Sand" price.
With this action occuring now for several days in a row and the shift in underlying Market Force to bullish it is very possible that we will now make a market move that will drive the neutral mode into a more bullish mode temporarily.
Right now this is necessary to clean out the excessive bearish positions that have built up and restore the market to a more "bias Neutral" position.
What happens in Intraday trading of the S&P500 is that the consensus build up of excessive one-sided trading will occur. This in and of itself CREATES the "wrong side of the market" by the nature of "everyone" being on that side.
As this sentiment is fueled (as in recent days) by negative news on a Bearish side then the public fear is turned into Bearish trading positions in a myriad of ways. Those can be with Futures, options, short sales of stocks, bearish mutual fund positions using the short selling oriented funds, or other more complicated bearish strategies.
As this sentiment reaches levels where the consensus has grown to extremes the market will (as I call it) clean out these wrong sided positions upsetting the strategies by hitting stop points. This phenomena occurs day in and out in the markets in larger scale time frames, short term time frames, Intraday and even Micro time frames of an hour or less sometimes.
That is why to be really succesful in S&P500 trading it is necessary to become very familiar THROUGH PARTICIPATION IN THE MARKETS with the way this all works and the mindset to adapt to it. This takes time, great patience and above all MATURITY which solves all the seemingly endless emotional responses to loss and gain that occur in a new S&P500 trader.
So for today we are going to be looking ideally for an early drop in the markets that has the feeling of being within the flow of normal (even slow lately) type trading business. IE: We don't want to see any super dynamic or dramatic moves based on a highly Bearish High Five or a super negative news event.
We will be watching the BreakDown area of the Hour One pivots for a buy opportunity with the correct Trailblazer chart formations to get us in at the proper location and be able to calculate a tight stop.
Good luck with your trading today and be sure to join me on the LIVE UPDATES SERVICE. I have designed this service to be very low cost compared to other live services but with the added feature of having me give you tons of crucial information for S&P500 traders especially those who have followed our work for sometime.
JOIN WITH US NOW BY CLICKING ON THE STAR ON OUR HOME PAGE. I sure appreciate it.
Value Area: 1,142.60 - 1,145.00
If the market trades above the Value Area and holds up above this 1145-46 area it will confirm that we are moving higher to test the goal up mentioned last week at 1156.00.
The market had attempted this last week but only stretched to 1150. If we see the higher price action step in today then we will most likely begin a move towards that higher goal. Reaching this number was temporarily suspended while the market attempted to go into a Sell Mode on Wednesday and Thursday which was never fully entered by the Dow, Naz and S&P500 price action.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,141.25 - 1,142.25
Although we are not going to make a direct trade based on this Buy Pivot we are going to be watching this area today for support and possible Trailblazer chart formations that would get us in the lower move in the morning.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,146.75 - 1,145.75
No trade at this pivot and on this side of the market we are going to be watching for the expected rally to push prices through the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1151.00 DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THEY PULL BACK NEAR THE OPENING.
Otherwise it is expected that we will blow through this stop/pivot to the upside attempting to stretch up towards the 1156.00 goal higher today and certainly beyond that as this year bullishly progresses.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,136.70
We are still trading above this and Monday and today will be crucial to see how we test this number. If prices continue to HOLD ABOVE 1144.00 and higher then we are going to be pushing away from this Pit Bull once again as we make some tests of higher numbers.
Pro Trader's Action
Our Market Force indicators for today are bullish and we will be looking to get on the buy side ideally on a lower to flat opening and an early move lower.
If we gap up and run up higher FIRST then we may still be ready to move on the Sell side. A case like this would have gotten all the rallying done right away, cleaned out the excessive Bearish positions, and we would still be in a Sell Rallies mode. So keep an eye out for this.
Good luck in your trading today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, April 12, 2004:
1) S@1144.00/ B@ 1144.25/ -.25
TOTAL: -.25
TCF2003: No trade setup occured for this system. We had a very bullish High Five Monday and the exact TCF2003 System setup would have been to Sell the BreakOut +2-4 points or in the zone of 1147.75-49.75. This price area was not even closely approached today which was surprising considering the extremely bullish High Five. This High Five aberration is another symptom of the underlying change in the market structure that I have been talking about that has occured in 2004. This same aberration occured on Friday's market where the S&P500 sold off dramatically from the BreakDown with a Bullish/ Neutral High Five.
Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.
The markets entered a very quiet period today after the holiday trading in a very small, tight 3 pt. actual trade range after the open.
We had waited most of the session looking for a possible opportunity to make some money and got short later in the session. We saw a 3rd Level Up chart formation on Trailblazer which is a precision floor traders method we use to enter trades. We saw a very small pullback to 1142.50 and that was all the market could give today to the downside.
As per instruction on our Live Update Service we got out when the market returned to 1144.00 and held.
1144.00 still continues to be the key number we have been discussing since last Wednesday in relation to the market being in a Sell Mode or in aberration on that Sell Mode.
So a scratch day today with the markets going nowhere fast in either direction.
Today's Call & Briefing:
We are making a call for a rally today based on our 18 proprietary indicators shift in Market Force direction.
Ideally we will get a flat to lower opening and an early pullback which should facilitate the bullish Market Force UNLESS there is a very strong, bearish High Five based on some difficult news coming out.
CAUTION: If the market GAPS UP and runs up quickly and substantially then the Bearish action will still be intact on higher prices. We are not expecting this but this is just a Caution in case this does occur. I will have specific and exact instructions on our LIVE SERVICE UPDATE if indeed this does occur.
Lately it seems we have been in a continuous stream of Bear Ugly type news and the market is basically digesting it and maintaining a stance at our 1144.00 "Line in the Sand" price.
With this action occuring now for several days in a row and the shift in underlying Market Force to bullish it is very possible that we will now make a market move that will drive the neutral mode into a more bullish mode temporarily.
Right now this is necessary to clean out the excessive bearish positions that have built up and restore the market to a more "bias Neutral" position.
What happens in Intraday trading of the S&P500 is that the consensus build up of excessive one-sided trading will occur. This in and of itself CREATES the "wrong side of the market" by the nature of "everyone" being on that side.
As this sentiment is fueled (as in recent days) by negative news on a Bearish side then the public fear is turned into Bearish trading positions in a myriad of ways. Those can be with Futures, options, short sales of stocks, bearish mutual fund positions using the short selling oriented funds, or other more complicated bearish strategies.
As this sentiment reaches levels where the consensus has grown to extremes the market will (as I call it) clean out these wrong sided positions upsetting the strategies by hitting stop points. This phenomena occurs day in and out in the markets in larger scale time frames, short term time frames, Intraday and even Micro time frames of an hour or less sometimes.
That is why to be really succesful in S&P500 trading it is necessary to become very familiar THROUGH PARTICIPATION IN THE MARKETS with the way this all works and the mindset to adapt to it. This takes time, great patience and above all MATURITY which solves all the seemingly endless emotional responses to loss and gain that occur in a new S&P500 trader.
So for today we are going to be looking ideally for an early drop in the markets that has the feeling of being within the flow of normal (even slow lately) type trading business. IE: We don't want to see any super dynamic or dramatic moves based on a highly Bearish High Five or a super negative news event.
We will be watching the BreakDown area of the Hour One pivots for a buy opportunity with the correct Trailblazer chart formations to get us in at the proper location and be able to calculate a tight stop.
Good luck with your trading today and be sure to join me on the LIVE UPDATES SERVICE. I have designed this service to be very low cost compared to other live services but with the added feature of having me give you tons of crucial information for S&P500 traders especially those who have followed our work for sometime.
JOIN WITH US NOW BY CLICKING ON THE STAR ON OUR HOME PAGE. I sure appreciate it.
Value Area: 1,142.60 - 1,145.00
If the market trades above the Value Area and holds up above this 1145-46 area it will confirm that we are moving higher to test the goal up mentioned last week at 1156.00.
The market had attempted this last week but only stretched to 1150. If we see the higher price action step in today then we will most likely begin a move towards that higher goal. Reaching this number was temporarily suspended while the market attempted to go into a Sell Mode on Wednesday and Thursday which was never fully entered by the Dow, Naz and S&P500 price action.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,141.25 - 1,142.25
Although we are not going to make a direct trade based on this Buy Pivot we are going to be watching this area today for support and possible Trailblazer chart formations that would get us in the lower move in the morning.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,146.75 - 1,145.75
No trade at this pivot and on this side of the market we are going to be watching for the expected rally to push prices through the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1151.00 DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THEY PULL BACK NEAR THE OPENING.
Otherwise it is expected that we will blow through this stop/pivot to the upside attempting to stretch up towards the 1156.00 goal higher today and certainly beyond that as this year bullishly progresses.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,136.70
We are still trading above this and Monday and today will be crucial to see how we test this number. If prices continue to HOLD ABOVE 1144.00 and higher then we are going to be pushing away from this Pit Bull once again as we make some tests of higher numbers.
Pro Trader's Action
Our Market Force indicators for today are bullish and we will be looking to get on the buy side ideally on a lower to flat opening and an early move lower.
If we gap up and run up higher FIRST then we may still be ready to move on the Sell side. A case like this would have gotten all the rallying done right away, cleaned out the excessive Bearish positions, and we would still be in a Sell Rallies mode. So keep an eye out for this.
Good luck in your trading today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
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Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
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