Cramer: "Prepare for a Year of Playing the Range"
5 mensagens
|Página 1 de 1
Re: Euroneeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeext !
TheDuke Escreveu:Nós nem sequer temos imaginação para lançar um mercado de commodities a sério. Tipo, futuros sobre o Bacalhau, futuros sobre a Sardinha e futuros sobre a Azeitona...e quem sabe a cortiça.
ROTFL! Boa ideia!
-
- Mensagens: 743
- Registado: 7/11/2002 19:47
Euroneeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeext !
Caro,
isso implicava termos uma Bolsa a sério. Eu gostava de saber se o grupo do reumático ainda vai para o átrio da Euronext ver as cotações nos terminais do Infobolsa
Nós nem sequer temos imaginação para lançar um mercado de commodities a sério. Tipo, futuros sobre o Bacalhau, futuros sobre a Sardinha e futuros sobre a Azeitona...e quem sabe a cortiça.
isso implicava termos uma Bolsa a sério. Eu gostava de saber se o grupo do reumático ainda vai para o átrio da Euronext ver as cotações nos terminais do Infobolsa
Nós nem sequer temos imaginação para lançar um mercado de commodities a sério. Tipo, futuros sobre o Bacalhau, futuros sobre a Sardinha e futuros sobre a Azeitona...e quem sabe a cortiça.
- Mensagens: 21
- Registado: 15/10/2003 22:34
Eheheh! Essa do Zé Barata está boa! Mas o Cramer nunca foi um jornalista nem o Barata analista. Agora também te digo que falta um Aaron Task por cá, um jornalista que consiga fugir aos lugares comuns e que saiba falar de Bolsa à séria.
Um grande abraço,
Ulisses
Um grande abraço,
Ulisses
-
- Administrador Fórum
- Mensagens: 31013
- Registado: 29/10/2002 4:04
- Localização: Aveiro
Ah, Cramer!
Este homem só não é um Deus da Bolsa, porque também erra!
Mas há que adorar a forma clara e transparente com que aborda os assuntos do $$$.
Para quando, um Cramer português ? É que já estou farto do José Barata.
Mas há que adorar a forma clara e transparente com que aborda os assuntos do $$$.
Para quando, um Cramer português ? É que já estou farto do José Barata.
- Mensagens: 21
- Registado: 15/10/2003 22:34
Cramer: "Prepare for a Year of Playing the Range"
"Prepare for a Year of Playing the Range"
By James J. Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
4/6/2004 1:10 PM EDT
"Time to face up to some facts about this environment.
We have gone from a market where cash truly made little sense to a market where cash has some real value.
We have gone from a market where the Fed is on our side to a market where I don't trust the Fed for a minute.
We have gone from a market where inflation was simply not a problem and we thought oil was going to $20 to a market where inflation is staring us right in the face and oil keeps flirting with $40. (Forget that I think oil is going down; perception matters.)
We have gone from a market that believed President Bush had a hammerlock on the presidency to one where Sen. Kerry seems to have a pretty good shot at the White House. The last Bush got booted because the economy soured after we trounced Iraq in the First Gulf War. This Bush could get the boot because Iraq has soured after he trounced the jobless recovery thesis with last Friday's employment number.
The stock market at Dow 10,000 and Nasdaq 1900 reflects a lot of that risk. At Dow 11,000 and Nasdaq 2200, it doesn't.
That means every time we get to those higher levels, I want to run scared. Every time we get to the lower end, I want to commit capital.
I don't believe the backdrop is positive enough to power us through Dow 11,000 and Nasdaq 2200. I don't think that things are so bad that we can take out the downside, even if Kerry develops a big lead in the polls.
However, within that range, there's plenty to worry about. For example, I don't think that you want to accumulate the financials or the real estate investment trusts or the soft goods stocks on weakness, although if the economy cools off of higher oil prices, I could make a case for the latter. On strength, I would lighten up on these groups and, more important, purge these with a vengeance as we got closer to the top end of the range.
Given that I think the downside of the range will get visited on any surge in Kerry's popularity, I don't know if I want to bottom-fish on, say, the drug stocks, because they could fall through their own range if Kerry was elected. I don't know if I want to be in the oil service stocks, either, at the low end of the range for the same reason. Think Halliburton (HAL:NYSE - commentary - research).
On the other hand, at the upper end of the range we have to be scared of just about every stock. The cyclicals will have price-to-earnings ratio problems. The techs can be subject to surprises like Nokia's (NOK:NYSE ADR - commentary - research).
If I had to describe how I feel about this market with all of these worries, I'd definitely say I'm, well, neutral. I will be bullish at the low end and outright bearish at the high end, the very definition of a range-bound tape.
It's so much more fun to be bullish flat-out, predicting new highs and thinking that we are in a market where you need to just hold on to make money.
But I think we are in the exact opposite situation. Holding on to stocks in this market could be a recipe for making nothing. Playing the range could be the consistent way to make money all year.
That's my game plan going forward. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
By James J. Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
4/6/2004 1:10 PM EDT
"Time to face up to some facts about this environment.
We have gone from a market where cash truly made little sense to a market where cash has some real value.
We have gone from a market where the Fed is on our side to a market where I don't trust the Fed for a minute.
We have gone from a market where inflation was simply not a problem and we thought oil was going to $20 to a market where inflation is staring us right in the face and oil keeps flirting with $40. (Forget that I think oil is going down; perception matters.)
We have gone from a market that believed President Bush had a hammerlock on the presidency to one where Sen. Kerry seems to have a pretty good shot at the White House. The last Bush got booted because the economy soured after we trounced Iraq in the First Gulf War. This Bush could get the boot because Iraq has soured after he trounced the jobless recovery thesis with last Friday's employment number.
The stock market at Dow 10,000 and Nasdaq 1900 reflects a lot of that risk. At Dow 11,000 and Nasdaq 2200, it doesn't.
That means every time we get to those higher levels, I want to run scared. Every time we get to the lower end, I want to commit capital.
I don't believe the backdrop is positive enough to power us through Dow 11,000 and Nasdaq 2200. I don't think that things are so bad that we can take out the downside, even if Kerry develops a big lead in the polls.
However, within that range, there's plenty to worry about. For example, I don't think that you want to accumulate the financials or the real estate investment trusts or the soft goods stocks on weakness, although if the economy cools off of higher oil prices, I could make a case for the latter. On strength, I would lighten up on these groups and, more important, purge these with a vengeance as we got closer to the top end of the range.
Given that I think the downside of the range will get visited on any surge in Kerry's popularity, I don't know if I want to bottom-fish on, say, the drug stocks, because they could fall through their own range if Kerry was elected. I don't know if I want to be in the oil service stocks, either, at the low end of the range for the same reason. Think Halliburton (HAL:NYSE - commentary - research).
On the other hand, at the upper end of the range we have to be scared of just about every stock. The cyclicals will have price-to-earnings ratio problems. The techs can be subject to surprises like Nokia's (NOK:NYSE ADR - commentary - research).
If I had to describe how I feel about this market with all of these worries, I'd definitely say I'm, well, neutral. I will be bullish at the low end and outright bearish at the high end, the very definition of a range-bound tape.
It's so much more fun to be bullish flat-out, predicting new highs and thinking that we are in a market where you need to just hold on to make money.
But I think we are in the exact opposite situation. Holding on to stocks in this market could be a recipe for making nothing. Playing the range could be the consistent way to make money all year.
That's my game plan going forward. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
-
- Administrador Fórum
- Mensagens: 31013
- Registado: 29/10/2002 4:04
- Localização: Aveiro
5 mensagens
|Página 1 de 1
Quem está ligado:
Utilizadores a ver este Fórum: Google Adsense [Bot], niceboy e 228 visitantes