"TAP não sobrevive se se mantiver pública", garante Pinto Luz

[MarcoAntonio]

Aqui fica o gráfico para acompanhar o meu comentário. No mínimo é caso para dizer... «Tá complicado».

[MarcoAntonio]

Sem dúvida. Não li o conteudo do artigo mas o titulo eu subscrevo (pelo que como que adivinho parte do conteudo) e é algo que tenho notado (os fracos volumes), não só no nosso mercado mas também no Nasdaq Composite, indice que tenho seguido nos últimos tempos pois acredito que poderá dar uma indicação importante quanto à continuação da correcção ou não...

[Info.]

Light Market Volume Reflects Uncertainty
Wednesday March 31, 11:17 am ET
By Jonah Keri

Another day of whisper-quiet volume left investors scratching their heads over the continued lack of trading in the market.

Volume closed lower and well below average on the NYSE and Nasdaq on Tuesday. That marked the 10th time in the last 13 sessions that Nasdaq volume closed below average.

That dry spell comes amid a longer slump stretching back more than two months. Stocks notched strong gains through much of last year. But on Jan. 26 the Nasdaq climbed 1.4%, hitting a new high in suspiciously light trade.

The market has sold off since then. On days when it's gained, volume has continued to lag. The Nasdaq has notched just one significant up day on volume that was both higher and above average since Jan. 16.

"The market realizes we're going to have to elect (John) Kerry or (George) Bush president in November, and the market doesn't like uncertainty," said Rich Merriman, president of Pennsylvania Trust Co., which manages $1 billion in assets for high net-worth clients.

"There's the threat of the next terrorist attack," he added. "Then you wonder if Kerry's elected what will happen to taxes - whether he'll roll back the dividend and capital gains breaks we've received."

Merriman said the low volume is also a reflection of a changing environment. Whereas in the late '90s the market regularly yielded strong double-digit returns, a return to single-digit returns may be at hand. As noted in Tuesday's A1 article on dividends, that kind of slower growth could shift the focus to slower-moving, dividend-yielding stocks and more conservative trading strategies.

Ed Wedbush, CEO of Los Angeles brokerage Wedbush Morgan, also points to changing market conditions as a reason for recent light trade, but in a different way.

"Most of the volume on the market is driven by institutions, and 25% to 35% is driven by computer programs," said Wedbush, referring to program trading, a growing recent trend. "So they can turn on or turn off trading based on the algorithms they're following."

Wedbush is optimistic that volume will improve as the market makes another run at its highs. He described volume during the last week's rebound as "moderate" rather than overly low, "but also not having the gusto you'd want in a major turnabout."

Investors will look for signs of a hiring pickup in Friday's March employment report. Economic growth has been strong the past year, but payroll gains have lagged well behind. That's helped rein in equities in 2004.

More stock gains without robust volume could be a red flag, given the market's history of punishing new highs in mild trade.

"What that would do is put the rally in doubt," Wedbush said.