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Mohan 27/02/04

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Mohan 27/02/04

por Dwer » 27/2/2004 15:22

Today's Market Force: Mixed/ Primarily Bearish. Look to sell any early rallies for weakness to continue under 1151.00
Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, February 26, 2004:
1) Buy 1138.50/ Sell (11:07est) 1144.00 +5.50 (Buy below Buy Pivot Target at 1139.00 as recommended in Morning Call)

2) (11:07est) Sell 1144.00/ Cover 1142.00 +2.00 (TB 3rd level up Sell...Notice How TB measured range on the Buy Pivot move)

* Market went flat for hour and 20 minutes

3) (1:27est) Buy 1145.00/ stopped out -2.00

TOTAL: UP TO + 5.50 PTS.

Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.

Today will be an abbreviated briefing as I am preparing our special "Insiders Seminar" which starts tonite with our Cocktail party and special Magic Show. Look forward to meeting all of you who are going to attend.

For Thursdays Action: We did not get a rally to higher prices as expected on Thursday but we did see continued, strong Bullish Market Force off the early lows.

Prices ran lower early and hit the Buy Pivot Target and we had suggested buying just below that 1139.00 price which was possible with the lows coming in at 1137.50.

The market rallied higher moving to the top of a Trailblazer Third Level Move up at the 1144.00 area. It is significant to note how the TB setup measured the move nicely to capture the +5.50 points and give us a sell reversal signal.

There was a 2 point recommended profit available on the move lower off of 1144.00 but overall the markets after that were anxious to try and move higher.

Later in the session with the Sell Mode still intact prices failed below the Pit Bull and the 1151.00 suggested big resistance. We got a mild up close with the Dow down slightly and closed off the session overall flat.

Today's Call & Briefing:
The Market Force indicators are mixed today with a Sell Bias. We are expecting a big move in one direction today but with Greenspan speaking again on the calendar it is a dicey day to determine.

Our overall feeling is that the markets are heading lower with the Market Force leaning towards the sell side. The underlying Market Force is supporting the continuation of the Sell Mode with prices once again stalling at the 1143.00 "line in the sand" we identified some time ago.

Because we have not significantly moved higher and thrown this Sell Mode into Aberration the overall suggestion of this type of activity is for lower prices.

We need to be alert to the possibility of a strong down day coming soon and possibly some Bear Ugly news associated with it to cause the strong sell off.

For today be more willing than other days to stand aside and let prices sort themselves out a bit more.

Value Area: 1,141.70 - 1,147.10
Trade holding in the Value Area remains neutral with trade below 1141.70 decidedly negative.

We are still ultimately looking for the lower side to be fufilled on the first level goal lower of 1122.00 area.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,138.25 - 1,139.25
No Trade at this target today. Watch for the possibility of prices to punch through the -4.25 stop at 1134.00 challenging this weeks lows.

If this occurs we would look for a reversal on any reflex rallies.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,147.75 - 1,146.75
No Trade at this pivot today but compare this zone with the BreakOut if we attempt that as the first Hour One pivot hit. At that spot, depending on the High Five, we could have a good short position to take.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,146.00
We are resisting this area on any higher moves and that is a sign of weakness. We want to continue to keep selling rallies under this number and this is confirmed by the Sell Mode we are in.

Bullish Market Force for intraday action is dissapating for today's trade and we would expect that to play out in the prices today.

Pro Trader's Action
Good day to stand aside today unless you see an early rally with a clear Trailblazer setup to go short into.

With Greenspan speaking again we may see things get a little more jittery with a small trading range awaiting some specific comments. His university speeches are usually not so significant in terms of market moving statements but lately he has got traders back on the edge of their seats.

Have a great weekend and we'll look forward to updating you for Monday's action.

All the best, Mohan
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Abraço,
Dwer

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