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Mohan 06/02/04

Espaço dedicado a todo o tipo de troca de impressões sobre os mercados financeiros e ao que possa condicionar o desempenho dos mesmos.

Mohan 06/02/04

por Dwer » 6/2/2004 11:38

If market opens flat to higher and "hangs up" near the highs we would expect a sell off later in the session. If market quickly drops in the first hour then we would expect support to come in and prices to rise to mid range into the close.

Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, February 5, 2004:
Very tight range 7.30 session with mixed High Five. Best for small point scalping only using Trailblazer TCF setup.

Market hit B/D and trade was slow for most of session.

1) Buy 1123.75-24.00/ Sell 1127.75/28.00 ...+4.00 (11:16est Trailblazer)

2) Sell 1129.50/ Cover 1129.00 ...+.75 (1:14 est TB Sratch-TFA)

3) Sell 1130.00/ Cover 1128.00 ...+2.00 (1:37est ReSell 3rd level

TOTAL: UP TO +6.75

Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning,

Another dead day on Thursday with the market sitting around in a very flat range with just 4 points between the BreakDown and BreakOut. High Five gave few clues as it was a mixed affair with mostly the CAUTION signs flashing.

Using our TCF Trailblazer setups we got 3 of them. One early buy below the BreakDown which occured at 1124.25 and a rally up to the Sell Pivot target for +4 pts. First sell above the sell pivot TB signal came in, went no where after some patience and was scratched at 1129.00 for .75 cents.

Don't take any guff from these TB setups. They move after a while or you just want to scratch em or take a small profit like this trade. If we get in on the correct "Too Far Away" setup or "3rd level" setup then they will move right away pretty much or at least give some compelling evidence of moving in our favor. Again, if not...then get rid of em and look for a next level move to re-enter.

Like anything in trading, you gotta watch these Trailblazer trades, paper trade em, learn em, see how they work in real time and then go for it. I've been using TB for many years. It rocks!

Today's Call & Briefing:
We are looking for the same basic type scenario as Thursday today on Friday except that today is a Full Moon and as such may get some additional volatility melodrama.

Full Moon days have great influence on the minds of the public and some crazy things can happen as we have been pointing out since the inception of our newsletter. Just keep it in mind. Fool Moon volatilty warning.

Today could go flat again also unless we get some kind of deal where the prices open flat to higher and "hang up" near the highs. Then we would look for a later hard drop after New York lunch. It's Friday though so we often just see the back and filling associated with position squarring for the weekend.

This is a tricky market, with tight ranges and our prior TCF system we used over the last year and a half struggling to get more than 4-6 points on a move.

That system is still showing some semblance of working as long as the smaller profit goals are established but the difficulty is that system was developed and created for the S&P500 markets that are trading in an average daily range of 15 points a day or higher. Hopefully we will see those ranges again and can get back to being comfortable using 6 point stops on those TCF setups.

The TCF Trailblazer setup is designed for these tighter markets as the method tends to "measure the range" by itself. I know from the many emails I am getting that a lot of you are catching on nicely and getting the rewards. It is my gift to you for your loyalty and confidence in me and my work. I have been using it for years.

TCF SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We will be looking carefully at the price structure of the opening period as stated in the Headline Call and watching to see if prices "hang up" near the highs. If so then we should be able to focus on selling the BreakOut if we see that NAZ is weak and TRIN is high. VXO has been up lately but no big sell off.

It's a volatility indicator as most of you know so when that thing increases we will get some more punch to these markets. Otherwise its scalping time to keep food on the table.

Watch out for a surprise Bear Ugly market. Watch for bad news to be sprung on the markets before the open which throws everything into Bear Ugly mode. I am not expecting any real bad days like these until after the election although the Market Forces are ripe for them and the spin doctors may not be able to prevent the large price smashing. 1112.00 is in the cards then 1094.00. Yikes.

Value Area: 1,125.40 - 1,128.60
Holding below 1125.40 is a bearish sign. They tried to bust this area on Thursday and popped em back up as suggested in the Morning Call. Later in Thursday's session the Sell Market Force mode we are in now kicked back in sending down near the lower third of the range again.

We want to tend to keep to the sell side until there is a serious aberration on the Sell Mode which so far has NOT shown up.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,122.75 - 1,123.75
No trade at this pivot today. We need larger ranges to be able to effectively trade these pivots and use a 5 point stop. Artificially shrinking the stop may not hold the trade on the right side of the market so we are being patient.

There is support here on a LOWER OPENING AND EARLY RUN LOWER especially at 1118.50 so if we get hammered down there EARLY before any rally then we could take at stab at that area. Then we would could confidently calculate a stop.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,130.00 - 1,129.00
No Trade at this Sell Pivot today. Compare to the BreakOut price and look for resistance up here with a bearish or neutral/bearish High Five. In this way look for a tighter stop up to 1134.25 (+4.25 stop/pivot)

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,134.40
As long as we hold below this we want to maintain the "sell rallies" mentality.

This should be a big upside resistance number at this point. See what the full moon does up here if we get it.

Pro Trader's Action
The ranges are still tight and we have adapted accordingly. Watch for today to be more of the same especially with Friday's usual position sqarring.

Not much we can do about the ranges except be careful with position trades and favor the Trailblazer approach to scalping the ranges that TB reveals with the method. Study this first, practice then give it a whirl. It's faster but the tight stops are easier to handle and there is a high % win factor.

COME JOIN ME THIS MONTH IN FLORIDA FOR MY SPECIAL "LIVE TRADING" SEMINAR ON FEBURARY 28TH FOR 4 DAYS. This seminar is going to be amazing because we have arranged a very limited seating type deal so I can be working with you very closely. We will be going over all the TCF setups in great detail and training serious traders in the Trailblazer TCF setup. We are very fortunate to have Addrienne Tograih coming also who is the premier trading coach for the industry. You will be thrilled to get Addrienne's training which is normally over 5000$ for a full training session. It comes as part of the wonderful weekend we will have learning all aspects of trading for Profit using Mohan's Methods. Don't miss the Cocktail party....Have a drink on me. It's party time.

Have a great weekend. Pray for volatility but be excited that we have Trailblazer cooking now so you can keep scalping out a living no matter what these rediculous markets do.

All the best of success, Mohan
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Abraço,
Dwer

There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
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