Mohan 05/02/04
1 Mensagem
|Página 1 de 1
Mohan 05/02/04
Look for an early, hard drop in the markets to find support and push up off the lows. If we get a higher opening and an early rally then look to stay on the sell side for further downside hammering.
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, February 4, 2004:
The BreakOut Hour One pivot at 1132.50 missed getting hit by a few ticks.
Trailblazer setups occurred as follows:
1) Sell 1131.75/ cover 1129.75 +2.00 (10:31est -Market flat, scalp 2pts.)
2) Buy 1124.50/ Sell 1126.50 +2.00 (2:03est -Scalp again for 2 pts.)
3) Sell 1128.50/ Cover 1125.50 +3.00 (TB setup plus Buy Pivot becomes Sell Resistance Bear H5)
*Riskier market today with Sell side bias as given after early rally off open
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today.
On our Headline Call we had given specific price action as our guide as to which side of the market to stay on. We got the early rally off the lower opening and this set up the sell side Market Force we had talked about.
The market made an Hour One high at 1132.50 and after the first hour went up and tapped 1131.75 twice which turned out to be a move on the Trailblazer TCF setup to sell but never quite hit the Hour One pivot high.
The market went flat for most of the day trading in a very small, tight range of 2-3 points before pulling back to just below the BreakDown pivot (1124.75) later in the session.
The support we had mentioned of 1125.25 held up OK on the early session running just 2 ticks below it but later blew through the price down to 1122.00 which set up the Bearish mood on any reflex rallies.
The High Five was bearish all day and the weight was to the downside.
The Trailblazer TCF setups were played on both sides of the market today as the market moved between the Hour One pivots. Very tight trading range during most of the day had only small gains in the TB setups. If you study the times shown above in the recap section you will see the formations of the 3 levels and where the price entries were. Total potential of S&P500 points today was up to +7.00 and today was very much focused on small scalps as the market kept going flat after the TB entries until the last one later in the session we got a little more stretch.
Today's Call & Briefing:
We have the markets at an important crossroads today. Overall we are expecting a further squashing in prices to the downside however if this occurs EARLY then we are going to be looking for support to come in off those early lows and rally.
Now remember, such a rally off those lows may still end up showing a down day but the movement off the lows could produce a nice paycheck for good S&P500 traders despite the overall appearance of a down day.
This is our unique advantage as S&P500 futures traders. Most investors and traders of stocks and options usually do not understand the S&P500 futures. Actually they won't usually admit it but they are generally confused about futures and how we can make money on a bearish or down day in the markets being long.
I was once interviewed by a top options expert who runs a whole website and everything and it was completely obvious from the way he was interviewing me that he simply did not understand the game we play as S&P500 Futures traders and how you could make money buying in a so-called Bear Market.
Although I had some fun with him in the interview, still I let his viewers see by (hopefully) kind and subtle means that he was clueless. Anyway, that is just the nature of this business and this interviewer/trader was certainly brilliant in his own way.
I am explaining all of this because our Headline Call appears very, very simple and "normal" to me as far as what to do today. However, I know I will get some emails from traders who may not be entirely familiar with our work asking about the reasoning for the influence on the price movements off the opening in relation to the rest of the days trade.
Plain and simple...Right now we are in a sell mode. Today is pegged for a reflex rally AGAINST that Sell Mode to produce an up day. However, IF we get an early reflex rally higher from the underlying forces that are "expecting" this then that early "rally energy drain" will find itself resuming the trade to the downside. If this occurs it could be a real pounding and we may see the 1112.00 projected lower number we have been discussing.
If they shoot for that number first off the open then we are most likely going to find support and rally off of that.
Once you become highly adept at using TRAILBLAZER and the TCF setup associated with that you will be able to Precision nail these exact spots to get in the washout and overkilled rally trades to do reversals.
THE BEST WAY TO LEARN TRAILBLAZER IS TO COME WATCH ME TRADE IT LIVE FOR 2 DAYS IN DEL REY BEACH, FLORIDA ON FEBURARY 27-MARCH 2ND. That party starts Friday night where 21st Century Futures and Myself will host a special Cocktail Reception (Red Bull for me) with nice food, entertainment and fun. Over the next 4 days we will rock and roll through every aspect of the TCF setups and especially the Trailblazer TCF setup that I have recently introduced to adapt to the new changed market conditions we are in.
Monday and Tuesday when the markets open live I will be narrating the entire 2 trading days of action showing you exactly what I do to trade in the markets. You will go away with a vast arsenal of knowledge and vision for your future as an S&P500 trader. Call (561) 750-8483 For details, information and to sign up. Extremely limited seating is going fast and I expect this will be my last seminar this year teaching these secrets as I do not want them to become too widespread.
TCF SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We would be interested in trading near the BreakDown pivot today if we find that the High Five is NOT Bear Ugly and there is not any strong, bad news associated with an early, hard drop.
If that is the case (Bear Ugly bad news...not common government reports) then we will need to get focused on getting short and holding short all day for a washout. I am not expecting this today but the markets are set up for this now.
On a higher opening and early push up in prices we will be looking for continued shorting opportunities up near the BreakOut or what might end up being the Sell Pivot target.
We would use our Trailblazer TCF setup to capture trades up near these pivots if the High Five had the same characteristics as Wednesday with the high TRIN above .90 or higher, VXO above .50 or more, and the NAZ bearish being down over -12 points.
Value Area: 1,123.40 - 1,129.20
Will be blow the support here at 1123.40??
It's hard to say.
I am rather expecting we will get a push lower and then have the opportunity to see how the reflex rally off the lows we are expecting will react to the bottom of the VA here at 1123.40.
Otherwise, a trip up to the top of the VA corresponds with the Sell Pivot target and that means double resistance up in this area just below 1130.00
If they get a nice bullish High Five though just remember that today is pegged for a rally off the lows and there are TONS OF BEARS COMMITTED TO THE SHORT SIDE RIGHT NOW...too many in fact for the downward pressure to be too extreme today. Get long on that lower early action.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,120.50 - 1,121.50
No Trade at this pivot today. As you know we are now using the TCF Trailblazer setup to nail trades in these pivot areas and would use caution trading these pivots with a 5 point stop in these tight range markets.
You can see from the above table that even though Wednesday had one of those rare bursts of volatility the range was only 9.30. Using a 5 point stop in that kind of range is not so safe if you end up on the wrong side of the action.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,129.75 - 1,128.75
We do have double resistance up here in correlation with the top of the VA. See how they move up here and look for further selling in this area if the High Five are weak.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,136.20
As you can see we are in a "Sell Rallies" mentality now that we have crossed BELOW THE PIT BULL. Oh, how quickly we forget. So many were telling me, "Mohan, can't you see we are in a bull market and things are going to keep moving higher...Your Pit Bull doesnt work...they won't cross below it". Seriously, I really do get bizzare emails like this sometimes. Of course now those perma bulls are a bit more quiet.
Hey, I have said since the beginning of the so called Iraq War that I was bullish and STILL AM. But I am not a "Bull" or a "Bear"....I am an intraday S&P500 Trader who just wants to be on the right side of the market in a trading market environment that has changed a lot in the last few months. Everything else is History.
Pro Trader's Action
Today is expected to be more volatile with some wider swings in the price action.
Our formula today has been described above in detail. The key is when all the trading movement is going on is to keep perspective as to overall which side of the market you want to be on. Then if you are on the right side your position will tend to take care of itself if you manage it properly.
So let's watch the first half hour of trading and see if we can get some clues as to support coming in lower or early higher moves wanting to sell off deeper today. We are currently in a Bearish "weather" condition so tend to look to that side as primary until the sun starts to shine on the higher prices again.
Good luck with your trading today and I'll see you in the action.
Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, February 4, 2004:
The BreakOut Hour One pivot at 1132.50 missed getting hit by a few ticks.
Trailblazer setups occurred as follows:
1) Sell 1131.75/ cover 1129.75 +2.00 (10:31est -Market flat, scalp 2pts.)
2) Buy 1124.50/ Sell 1126.50 +2.00 (2:03est -Scalp again for 2 pts.)
3) Sell 1128.50/ Cover 1125.50 +3.00 (TB setup plus Buy Pivot becomes Sell Resistance Bear H5)
*Riskier market today with Sell side bias as given after early rally off open
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today.
On our Headline Call we had given specific price action as our guide as to which side of the market to stay on. We got the early rally off the lower opening and this set up the sell side Market Force we had talked about.
The market made an Hour One high at 1132.50 and after the first hour went up and tapped 1131.75 twice which turned out to be a move on the Trailblazer TCF setup to sell but never quite hit the Hour One pivot high.
The market went flat for most of the day trading in a very small, tight range of 2-3 points before pulling back to just below the BreakDown pivot (1124.75) later in the session.
The support we had mentioned of 1125.25 held up OK on the early session running just 2 ticks below it but later blew through the price down to 1122.00 which set up the Bearish mood on any reflex rallies.
The High Five was bearish all day and the weight was to the downside.
The Trailblazer TCF setups were played on both sides of the market today as the market moved between the Hour One pivots. Very tight trading range during most of the day had only small gains in the TB setups. If you study the times shown above in the recap section you will see the formations of the 3 levels and where the price entries were. Total potential of S&P500 points today was up to +7.00 and today was very much focused on small scalps as the market kept going flat after the TB entries until the last one later in the session we got a little more stretch.
Today's Call & Briefing:
We have the markets at an important crossroads today. Overall we are expecting a further squashing in prices to the downside however if this occurs EARLY then we are going to be looking for support to come in off those early lows and rally.
Now remember, such a rally off those lows may still end up showing a down day but the movement off the lows could produce a nice paycheck for good S&P500 traders despite the overall appearance of a down day.
This is our unique advantage as S&P500 futures traders. Most investors and traders of stocks and options usually do not understand the S&P500 futures. Actually they won't usually admit it but they are generally confused about futures and how we can make money on a bearish or down day in the markets being long.
I was once interviewed by a top options expert who runs a whole website and everything and it was completely obvious from the way he was interviewing me that he simply did not understand the game we play as S&P500 Futures traders and how you could make money buying in a so-called Bear Market.
Although I had some fun with him in the interview, still I let his viewers see by (hopefully) kind and subtle means that he was clueless. Anyway, that is just the nature of this business and this interviewer/trader was certainly brilliant in his own way.
I am explaining all of this because our Headline Call appears very, very simple and "normal" to me as far as what to do today. However, I know I will get some emails from traders who may not be entirely familiar with our work asking about the reasoning for the influence on the price movements off the opening in relation to the rest of the days trade.
Plain and simple...Right now we are in a sell mode. Today is pegged for a reflex rally AGAINST that Sell Mode to produce an up day. However, IF we get an early reflex rally higher from the underlying forces that are "expecting" this then that early "rally energy drain" will find itself resuming the trade to the downside. If this occurs it could be a real pounding and we may see the 1112.00 projected lower number we have been discussing.
If they shoot for that number first off the open then we are most likely going to find support and rally off of that.
Once you become highly adept at using TRAILBLAZER and the TCF setup associated with that you will be able to Precision nail these exact spots to get in the washout and overkilled rally trades to do reversals.
THE BEST WAY TO LEARN TRAILBLAZER IS TO COME WATCH ME TRADE IT LIVE FOR 2 DAYS IN DEL REY BEACH, FLORIDA ON FEBURARY 27-MARCH 2ND. That party starts Friday night where 21st Century Futures and Myself will host a special Cocktail Reception (Red Bull for me) with nice food, entertainment and fun. Over the next 4 days we will rock and roll through every aspect of the TCF setups and especially the Trailblazer TCF setup that I have recently introduced to adapt to the new changed market conditions we are in.
Monday and Tuesday when the markets open live I will be narrating the entire 2 trading days of action showing you exactly what I do to trade in the markets. You will go away with a vast arsenal of knowledge and vision for your future as an S&P500 trader. Call (561) 750-8483 For details, information and to sign up. Extremely limited seating is going fast and I expect this will be my last seminar this year teaching these secrets as I do not want them to become too widespread.
TCF SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We would be interested in trading near the BreakDown pivot today if we find that the High Five is NOT Bear Ugly and there is not any strong, bad news associated with an early, hard drop.
If that is the case (Bear Ugly bad news...not common government reports) then we will need to get focused on getting short and holding short all day for a washout. I am not expecting this today but the markets are set up for this now.
On a higher opening and early push up in prices we will be looking for continued shorting opportunities up near the BreakOut or what might end up being the Sell Pivot target.
We would use our Trailblazer TCF setup to capture trades up near these pivots if the High Five had the same characteristics as Wednesday with the high TRIN above .90 or higher, VXO above .50 or more, and the NAZ bearish being down over -12 points.
Value Area: 1,123.40 - 1,129.20
Will be blow the support here at 1123.40??
It's hard to say.
I am rather expecting we will get a push lower and then have the opportunity to see how the reflex rally off the lows we are expecting will react to the bottom of the VA here at 1123.40.
Otherwise, a trip up to the top of the VA corresponds with the Sell Pivot target and that means double resistance up in this area just below 1130.00
If they get a nice bullish High Five though just remember that today is pegged for a rally off the lows and there are TONS OF BEARS COMMITTED TO THE SHORT SIDE RIGHT NOW...too many in fact for the downward pressure to be too extreme today. Get long on that lower early action.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,120.50 - 1,121.50
No Trade at this pivot today. As you know we are now using the TCF Trailblazer setup to nail trades in these pivot areas and would use caution trading these pivots with a 5 point stop in these tight range markets.
You can see from the above table that even though Wednesday had one of those rare bursts of volatility the range was only 9.30. Using a 5 point stop in that kind of range is not so safe if you end up on the wrong side of the action.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,129.75 - 1,128.75
We do have double resistance up here in correlation with the top of the VA. See how they move up here and look for further selling in this area if the High Five are weak.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,136.20
As you can see we are in a "Sell Rallies" mentality now that we have crossed BELOW THE PIT BULL. Oh, how quickly we forget. So many were telling me, "Mohan, can't you see we are in a bull market and things are going to keep moving higher...Your Pit Bull doesnt work...they won't cross below it". Seriously, I really do get bizzare emails like this sometimes. Of course now those perma bulls are a bit more quiet.
Hey, I have said since the beginning of the so called Iraq War that I was bullish and STILL AM. But I am not a "Bull" or a "Bear"....I am an intraday S&P500 Trader who just wants to be on the right side of the market in a trading market environment that has changed a lot in the last few months. Everything else is History.
Pro Trader's Action
Today is expected to be more volatile with some wider swings in the price action.
Our formula today has been described above in detail. The key is when all the trading movement is going on is to keep perspective as to overall which side of the market you want to be on. Then if you are on the right side your position will tend to take care of itself if you manage it properly.
So let's watch the first half hour of trading and see if we can get some clues as to support coming in lower or early higher moves wanting to sell off deeper today. We are currently in a Bearish "weather" condition so tend to look to that side as primary until the sun starts to shine on the higher prices again.
Good luck with your trading today and I'll see you in the action.
Mohan
- Anexos
-
- Mohan 050204.PNG (32.16 KiB) Visualizado 139 vezes
Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
-
- Mensagens: 3414
- Registado: 4/11/2002 23:16
1 Mensagem
|Página 1 de 1
Quem está ligado: