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Resistance proves futile...

Espaço dedicado a todo o tipo de troca de impressões sobre os mercados financeiros e ao que possa condicionar o desempenho dos mesmos.

Eu posso ser maluquinho...

por Curare » 19/12/2002 19:09

Mas fico contente por ver que não estou sozinho... :)

E o homem até tem os mesmo targets... :)

Abraço.
 
Mensagens: 235
Registado: 5/11/2002 12:54
Localização: Lisboa

Resistance proves futile...

por Curare » 19/12/2002 19:03

RESISTANCE PROVES FUTILE

By Harry Boxer, Publisher and Editor, The Technical Trader
http://thetechtrader.com Dec 18, 2002 11:59:00 PM Email this article Print this article

It was another grueling day in the market and another down day. Unfortunately the market gapped down at the outset, took out some immediate support levels and had a very nasty little spill in the morning. It got to the lows for the session on the Nasdaq 100 after the first 90 minutes or so.

The rest of the day was spent basically meandering back and forth in a narrow 8-10 point range on the Nasdaq 100, and similar action on the S&P 500, where it moved back and forth in about a 7-8 point range. However, on a couple occasions the market did come down and retest the lows of the morning, did not make new lows, and also did not take out last week’s lows.


But, the fact they couldn’t rally decisively off those levels is a little ominous, and the overall patterns now look like today’s action was more of a consolidation down-flag than it was a basing attempt. We’ll see which way the market decides it wants to go tomorrow.

Net on the day, we were down 88 on the Dow, 12 on the S&P 500, 30 on the Nasdaq Composite, and 26 on the Nasdaq 100. More importantly, the SOX Index broke 300 and was down 23, nearly 8 percent, a huge drop that certainly pressured Nasdaq.

Advance-declines were decidedly negative, down 2 to 1 on New York and 2 ½ to 1 on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was again very negative, 3 ½ to 1 on New York on total volume of about 1 1/3 billion. Nasdaq volume was about 1.5 billion, with about a 6-to-1 negative ratio, with 1.27 billion down and 209 million down. A nasty day on Nasdaq.

That was seen on my personal board today, which is mostly comprised of tech stocks. Leading losers were QLogic down 1.41, the SMH (semiconductor index) down 1.68, IBM 1.18, Broadcom 1.09, Nvidia 1.07, Qualcomm 1.19, and little OVTI down another 1.10. They were victims of the tech wreck today.

There were a few small fractional gainers like Amgen, BEAS Systems, which was strong all afternoon, and a couple of the gold and silver stocks I follow. Hecla, in particular,was up 40 cents and pushing $5.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the potential head-and shoulder bottoms that I thought may be forming were broken today. We’d be lucky if we can hold the lows here and double-bottom. The next day or two will tell the story, but if the market breaks much below the current levels we may be in jeopardy of testing very important lower levels down around the 975-80 zone on the Nasdaq 100 and about 870-73 zone on the S&P 500, which also represents close to the bottom of the short-term channels. (Será este o canal do Cem?)

So we’ll see if the momentum continues on the downside or if we can reverse the current downtrend, which is now 13 sessions old. Unfortunately, as they say, the trend is your friend and the trend is still down. Yesterday’s failure to break through resistance and the subsequent follow-through to the downside today is proof-positive that resistance has indeed been futile and the market may want to go lower before it can reverse the downtrend.

Good trading!

Harry
 
Mensagens: 235
Registado: 5/11/2002 12:54
Localização: Lisboa


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