Sete momentos mais marcantes de Centeno no Banco de Portugal

[Surfer]

2001 left few investors untouched by losses, 1.68 trillion in wealth was wiped out. I became bearish in the first quarter of 2000, have remained bearish in 2001, and continue to be bearish for 2002.
“The length and duration of every bear market is in direct proportion to the bull market that preceded it”-dv

I believe that the recession will linger, that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates, that these cuts will prove ineffective and sooner rather than later the Fed will lose control over the economy, -if they ever had it at all.

I believe that stock prices will be lower in 2002. Given the oscillation/2000 point counter trend rally maybe significantly lower than 2001. Multiyear tops have been achieved by virtually every major stock in the Standard & Poor's 500 and Dow Jones industrial average, these stocks became over owned and over loved, if anything typifies 1999 -- 2000 it would be “how we fell in love with stocks so we killed the game”- this aftermath, post gold rush, post Klondike, is probably going to stick a round a while.

“The length and duration of every bear market is in direct proportion to the bull market that preceded it”-dv

As for the economy, the economy still has within it excess capacity and my fellow Americans have consumed too much shtuff, they still got it, but if they need money They can always sell it on eBay!!!

Factories will continue to close down, stores will close, and people will continue to lose their jobs. Bankruptcies will rise, foreclosures will rise, late payments, no payments, and IOU’s that don't get paid will be the order of the day/year. Unemployment is likely to go higher, with little growth. I recently had a conversation with a young man who was working for Home Depot and he was wondering what to do with his life, I suggested collections…

“The length and duration of every bear market is in direct proportion to the bull market that preceded it”-dv

The bear market that was born of the excess mass public participation and money lust of the late '90s is not over with.

I continue to maintain my bearish view of the market; I continue to believe that the downside for the stock market is much greater than the upside, given this we will continue to look towards investments that can benefit from a declining securities market