Só imigração fez subir mão de obra. Contributo foi dos maiores da UE

[Dwer]

A fast, early drop in the markets will signal higher prices later in the session. A higher opening and an early higher move with prices "hanging up" near the highs will signal weakness later in the session. Note: 2 day FOMC session starts today with first day TCF trading and not on 2nd day
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, January 26, 2004:
Sell 1143.25/ cover for -2pts. loss.

* Sell the BreakOut and cover for 2 pt. loss as prices move approximately 4 handles lower below B/O, return to B/O and 'hang up' near the highs. Stop tightened to -2 points was hit.

Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us.

The Federal reserve starts a 2 day session today. We will be trading today's session and standing aside tomorrow. It may be tricky today and we will end up standing aside.

We were looking for prices to continue lower on Monday. We saw the BreakOut get hit again as the first Hour One pivot and we had cautioned in Monday's briefing how with a 2 day in a row B/O the second one could be tricky.

Prices had pulled back off the BreakOut and things looked decent for the early session to continue further erosion. However,later after Greenspan had begun making comments the market moved back up to the BreakOut price area around 1143-44.00 and "hung up" there near the highs.

Due to the tight ranges we had considered a trip back to the B/O would be a more bullish sign with the 2nd day hitting the B/O first. Based on our rule of tightening the stop to -2 pts. on a 5 point favorable move and the new small ranges we moved the stop to a -2 pt. loss.

After prices moved up and stayed near the Highs Greenspan had made some comments construed to be highly bullish and prices soared above the BreakOut causing us to get stopped out and for our Headline Call to not pan out as planned.

There was NOT a lot of volume on the move higher and a lot of the move was stops getting run from Friday's bearish entries. Still the underlying bullishness of the market continues undaunted.

What we are seeing in the markets right now is a lot of very fickle traders who are getting one sided real quickly on the smallest move, getting stopped out on that side and then jumping to the other side.

Usually this is a sign of a top especially when we see the wrong sided traders quickly becoming bulls in the later stage of an upmove.

This is what we see occuring now and all we are concerned with is that we get a return to real volatility and 2 way swing trading. What we saw on Friday was more of an example of this... Up days followed by contrary reversals with lots of play in the range.

Today's Call & Briefing:
We are going to trade the first day of the FOMC meeting today and stand aside tomorrow.

Our Headline Call is designed today to give us a clear picure of which side of the market to be on depending on the early opening and reaction to the early price direction.

If things are still bullish for today and tommorow we would expect to see an early fast drop which would get picked up and tend to move higher.

If we see the higher opening, further run up in prices and consolidation near the highs we would expect weakness later in the session.

Most likely if this occured (higher open, early price push up, and consolidation) we would be looking to get short at a certain point. This would most likely be a BreakOut that attempted to rally and then failed after the consolidation. If the High Five are bullish at the time of such a B/O should it occur then we would want to wait for a 2-4 point move above the BreakOut of the first hour.

On the lower, fast early move we would be interested in buying the BreakDown at a strategic spot. That would depend on the nature of the markets, the High Five and the Trailblazer pattern unfolding.

There were no Trailblazer patterns unfolding on Monday but we could see one off the early opening today that came down to the BreakDown in a 3 level fashion if we get the lower, early drop first. If this does occur then we would want to buy the long, red spike candles lower below the 3rd level drop.

I hope this occurs so we will have a nice example to show on our briefing for Wednesday. No big deal if it doesn't as there are going to be many (almost) daily examples of this setup.

So using the above TCF setups let's see what the market hands us today.

Value Area: 1,140.90 - 1,153.00
We could see prices trade into the VA today from a slightly higher opening and push up in prices.

This moving back into the VA could cause the prices to push towards the lower end of the VA which would be a bearish sign. One can't help but think that there is significant upside left. It all depends on the market structure in revealing that to us.

If we get a fast pullback into the VA off the open and an early move lower remember to be ready to buy for a push back up later in the session.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,144.00 - 1,145.00
On a fast move lower today let's go ahead and Buy this Buy pivot target. Now if the markets open higher and consolidate near the Highs FIRST before heading lower then we want to be careful trading long at this pivot.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,159.75 - 1,158.75
Be ready to sell this Sell Pivot target today on a flat to higher opening and an early push up here. We want to see how the markets open and if they are super strong with volume. This strong volume was NOT there on the run up later in the session on Monday so we would want to look to short this Sell Pivot target.

Compare this Sell Pivot target price with any Trailblazer pattern that shows up before hitting it and also with the Hour One pivot. If we get some kind of correlation around this 1159.00 area then let's go ahead and sell here and look for a 5-6 point pullback to scalp.

If we get in the trade and the prices stall and "hang up" near these highs we should consider getting out of the trade and re-entering at higher prices.

REMEMBER: right now many of these methods I am giving you are DEFENSIVE tactics for keeping your account alive.

Although the illusion of the markets may cause a trader to think that everyone is making a fortune holding long as the markets go up it is simply not so.

Many, many long established traders are getting hammered in a market that IS SIMPLY NOT TRADING...ONLY GOING UP. These are difficult markets for traders and great for long time holders who got long several months ago.

Usually it is the traders who have all the advantage in the S&P500 where they trade in a series of constant counter moves from the bullish side to the bearish side. Eventually this period will end and we will have more of a swing trading environment. Keep scalping off the TCF setups and we will get through this period.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,137.40
We are still in the bullish mode above the Pit Bull. Every time we start to close in on the Pit Bull lately the market stages another push up to new higher levels. So we want to continue with our Buy the drops mentality as long as we are above the Pit Bull.

Pro Trader's Action
Be extra careful trading today on the FOMC meeting schedule. We will stand aside tomorrow but for today we can look to trade the correct TCF setup that shows up. I've given you the two scenarios to watch for and we can plan our trades around those.

Good luck today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan