Miranda Sarmento: Privatização da TAP descola "nas próximas semanas"

[Dwer]

Market to continue higher today but watch for weakness to set in later in the session as a sign of the market turning over. If no weakness later then we expect 2 more days up.

Trade Setup Summary for Friday, January 16, 2004:
Due to options expiration Friday: No Headline Call and no TCF trade setups.

Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the extra long weekend.

Options expiration was on Friday and we do not make Headline Calls on those days or trade any TCF setups. On Monday the exchanges were closed due to Martin Luther King day.

As one of our subscribers you can know about these Non Headline Call days and Holidays in advance by checking our Economic Calendar on our main website page at www.21stcenturyfutures.com

The markets were relatively flat on Friday with many larger traders leaving early for the long weekend after squarring their positions with the options expiration.

The market once again pushed higher into the close creating a new high of 1138.80 on the big S&P500 cars and the E Mini S&P500 hitting 1139.00. However, we didn't miss anything trading wise as the range was tight without much movement between prices.

I am expecting that this week should be pivotal in getting some more volatility going and more of a trading range. Let's see how this pans out.

Also, keep an eye out for a special Ask Mohan update where we will talk about our new approach to scalping less points over the next few weeks as we look for the ranges to open up more.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline Call for today is for the market to continue higher but we are going to be on the alert for a turning point any time where weakness starts to set in and signal a turn around in sentiment.

If we do not see weakness set in and a tendency for the market to start closing near the lows after running up early then we are going to expect at least another 2 days up this week through Wednesday.

The way we want to look to trade this today is to first consider today, Tuesday, to be the "Monday" of the week as we were obviously closed yesterday. With Monday being the most bullish day of the week we want to be on the lookout for the market to "hang up" in the early part of the session near the higher quarter of the range and sell off later in the session if the High Five are giving clues along this line.

Be a bit more willing to stand aside and let the higher prices play out if that is what occurs after the opening. In other words, don't worry about "missing anything" in trading early in the session. Expect more clarity later in the session past 11:30 est or later.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR: The market could go either way today as we see the overall setup for prices at somewhat of a crossroads.

There is a good chance of a BreakOut buy that sends prices substantially higher cleaning out a lot of the excess Bears that keep piling on these rallies. That is why we expect to see higher prices today and if there is going to be a start of a pullback of more magnitude the sentiment change will be for the Bears to throw in the towel and start buying. We are not seeing this at all yet. Watch for a BreakOut buy with the Dow flat (our definition of flat is Dow up +50 or LESS) along with NAZ (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index) being up +12-15 or higher. If TRIN is below .85 then we could see the market take off to the upside again.

If we get a larger scale move in the first hour or so but we are seeing a higher TRIN above 1.10, VXO +.50 or higher and the NAZ weak in relation to the Dow rally (with NAZ up +10 or less) then we should see the rally fizzle out later and weakness set in.

I am not making an exact call today on the weakness but suggesting we all watch for it as a SIGN. An early rally today and then a weak close below the opening price is going to be our first sign of a sentiment change. I'll report to you daily also about the change in Bull/Bear sentiment on these rallies.

REMEMBER: WE ARE NOW SCALPING FOR 3-6 POINTS ON THE TCF SETUPS TEMPORARILY AND WE ARE JUST LOOKING TO BRING HOME SOME SMALL PROFITS UNTIL THE RANGES OPEN UP.

The idea here is that rather then sit in a TCF setup that produces 4 points at it's peak rather than waiting for 6-8 points we want to grap those 3-6 available points.

It will be a good lesson for all of us in SURVIVAL and adaptability to the current situation. We will be keeping a microscope on the market to see if our TCF setups start producing regular 6 point moves again soon. Then we will lift this adjustment. For now scalp what you can and if they move further don't concern but just observe. I'll update you daily on the progress of this. Expect to see reports on the TCF charts above showing that less points could have been scalped from the setup.

We will also be developing THIS WEEK a special section on our website which will ALERT YOU TO ANY CHANGES IN THE 21ST CENTURY TRADING HANDBOOK that we will make in the near future.

A real and true professional S&P500 Trader only wants to trade the truth and what is vital to TODAY'S TRADING ACTION. A pro is always ready and willing to re-tool, re-vamp, or totally overhaul their system as needed to stay on the cutting edge. Since I began this newsletter a year and a half ago I have ALWAYS stayed committed to keeping our approach flexible, ready and willing to accept any changes necessary to stay profitable. That is what we are doing now. A real S&P500 trader can never stay stagnant as that would be in contrast to the art of trading itself and in our case the "Fastest game in town".

Value Area: 1,134.80 - 1,138.60
Watch for resistance at the top of the Value area for weakness to start setting in or continued strength above this 1139.00 price. The most likely scenario is that prices will rise above this area and then fall back into this zone later in the session as prices weaken.

This would be the sign we are looking for as described above.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,133.75 - 1,134.75
No Trade at this pivot today. We want to let the markets "reset" after the long weekend and option expiration Friday before we get a trade on.

Watch for support coming in at 1129.50 (-4.25 stop/pivot).

Sell Pivot Target: 1,140.50 - 1,139.50
No Trade at this pivot. Price range between the 2 Pivot Targets is close and we need to see what happens at the BreakOut and BreakDown of these ranges today. Compare with the Hour One B/O and B/D and we will have some clarity later in the session.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,126.90
We are still wanting to Buy Drops down to the support area daily calculated as the Pit Bull. As long as prices are closing 10 handles above this price then we want to be buying.

Our TCF system will take trades on the short side in larger moves contrary to the Pit Bull direction be when the market drops we want to stay buyers as we have been trying to do the last few sessions. Often in a bullish situation like now you will see the lower price targets for buys missed by a few ticks and the Sell Pivots will see the stops get challenged.

Once the "weather" changes and the sentiment shifts then the opposite happens and Sell Pivots sometimes get missed by a few ticks and the Buy Pivots get pushed lower. It's all part of the game.

Pro Trader's Action
Let's see if we can get this week started nicely by having a little more volatility show up. I suspect this will be the case and if so our hope is that the ranges will open up too.

It's a New Year, we have now had 2 weeks pass into the New Year and it's time to "let the trading games begin" again and see some 2 sided trading days.

Let the markets play out a bit today and look to trade slightly later in the session after more clarity sets in. Keep an eye out for weakness to set in later after 1:30 est time ( or maybe sooner) and if we do not see that occur then expect higher prices going into Wednesday also.

Good luck today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan