Miranda Sarmento: Privatização da TAP descola "nas próximas semanas"

[braap]

Quem tem estado atento às Newsletters do Nichols notou que ele falou muito neste paralelismo. Ele chegava a prever as quedas para 15/15 de janeiro. Como estas não aconteceram e o mercado continua com uma tendência de subida, ele já mudou um pouco o discurso. Gosto imenso de ler as newsletters dele, mas o que ele diz começa a ser repetitivo: Preparem-se para uma queda do mercado, se não for agora é no futuro

Abraço
Bruno

[Pata-Hari]

Hehhe, está engraçado, sim. Mas alguém consegue acreditar na "predistinação" dos mercados e que a história realmente se repete em padrões a qq mercado em qualquer lugar?

Pode até ser, mas eu acho piada e nada mais.

[Bullshit]

By David Nichols

It's obvious by now that the uncanny Nikkei parallel that has held up so well for so many years is now....well....not holding up so well. Our markets have continued to rise during the time-frame when this historical analog fell off sharply.

Here's an update of the comparison, courtesy of Contributing Analyst Tom McClellan of the McClellan Market Report , which is available every evening on our web site for subscribers.



Is it all breaking down? Of course that's a possibility. But there is another explanation: that the conditions are still ripe for the same sort of quick and scary correction here, yet the unpredictable flow of news and sentiment simply hasn't triggered the correction yet. Remember, this is not a pre-destined path, but rather a historical map for how investors have reacted in the past when faced with similar market circumstances.

At this point in the Nikkei, there was a roughly 20% correction in just about one month, followed by an equally impressive run right back up to the tipping point. An equivalent drop now would take the Nasdaq down from 2100 to about 1700, and the SPX from 1130 to 900, all by the middle of next month.

This seems inconceivable. But that's when you need to have sucn an indea on your radar -- right when you can't even fathom it at all. Like right now.

It's still my feeling that the market is gearing up for one more push up, taking a crack at that 1150 level I've been mentioning. It may even go over it, as there is a case to be made that 1160 is the more important harmonic level. It shouldn't matter where the market stretches to, as the fall back from such a spike should be equally dramatic as well, and should usher in a potentially very serious and scary correction. That's why I want to take a pre-calculated speculative short position on any such spike up from here!!