“Não diabolizo projetos” como a mina da Lagoa Salgada

[alex01]

Já não era sem tempo, depois de dois dias seguidos ter saído em "stop-loss", são 12 pontos !

[Dwer]

Selloff early in the day - acertou
Find support and move higher - acertou
Sellof again - acertou

Também fiquei de boca aberta.
Deve estar com a mão quente...se fosse assim todos os dias

Abraços,

[Ulisses Pereira]

Tenho sido sempre tão crítico com a taxa de acerto do Moohan mas querem ver que hoje vou ter que lhe tirar o chapéu? Se ele acerta hoje, num dia com esta volatilidade, merece uma vénia.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[Dwer]

Market expected to sell off early in the session, find support, move higher and sell off later after 1:30 est.


Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, January 14, 2004:
Sell 1126.25/ stopped out at 1132.25 for -6pts.

* BreakOut sell hit 6 pts. loss limit on top tick of the day.

Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.

We were looking for the market to sell off mid session Wednesday with a flat to higher opening. We got the early push up, prices pulled back about 3-4 pts. but then found support at the BreakDown and moved higher for the rest of the session.

Nothing we had in our TCF setup on Wednesday suggested buying the BreakOut as the Dow had already rallied substantially above +60 pts with NAZ below +12. We did have a mildly bullish High Five but our rules for the TCF setups had us selling the BreakOut and that trade got stopped out.

If you are in the futures business of trading you have to realize that getting stopped out is part of any system and is normal.

Last year on over 160 TCF trade setups that occured about 36 of those days got stopped out or approximately 16% of the time (based on 20 trading days a month X 11 months).

THAT IS AN EXTREMELY LOW RATIO OF GETTING STOPPED OUT FOR ANY SYSTEM WHETHER DISCRETIONARY OR MECHANICAL.

The key thing when trading a proven system is to "just go to work everyday" and do your best to take your emotions out of it. You can never fully separate your emotions from trading the S&P500 but over time Pro traders who work on this daily become succesful at reducing the drama of the markets daily affect on them. Otherwise you will become a basket case if you don't get that aspect under control. You have to trade with money that is not relevant to your existance and not really care about it at all. You are just going to work to make a daily paycheck and occasionally paying a little back.

So the ranges are still tight and the market is still in the process of getting the Push and Pull flow of the traders back into it. The TCF setups will continue to work over time and the ranges will eventually expand with more volatility.

Hang in there gang and don't take it too seriously...it's just part of trading.

I once watched a very famous trader accumulate about 60 S&P500 points on his mechanical system over a 6 week period and then THAT SAME SYSTEM gave em all those points back and more in about 2 weeks. His commentary after that: "Be glad you can afford to be in this business and see this happen". THAT'S IT...No excuses for his mechanical system or anything. He had backtested it for years, seen it work over time, and had complete faith in it...and still does.

Our TCF setups have one of the highest % of loss/gain ratios in the industry but right now things are still quite convoluted and there is not much play in the market. That's not an excuse...it's just a fact. No one can change that.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Today we are looking for an early, fast sell off on a flat to slightly higher opening and early push up.

Notice how quickly the market sold off after the new high close on Wednesday. The Sell Market Force is there in the markets and will start to manifest more and more over the next few days.

You can also see how 1128.75 is a very important number that we have mentioned in the last 3 Morning Call briefings. Prices on Wednesday held steady below that but then made that fast dash into the close for the higher numbers based on some enthusiasm for earnings reports.

We are expecting the markets to "hang up" near the upper levels today until later in the session. We will be on guard for a sell off early but would want to cover on any fast moves lower if we are fortunate to be able to get a TCF setup to get us short.

Right now the only one would be the Sell Pivot target at 1133.75-34.75 and that may not get hit early. If it does than we will be there to get short.

Let's be a little bit more cautious today as we are seeing the convolution of the market not giving us TCF setups that are panning out the last 2 days. Better to stand aside if we are not getting the reaction we need from the numbers and the High Five.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We are going to be on the alert for a higher opening and early move up to test the Highs put in yesterday and slightly above for a short at the Sell pivot target. If hit at 1133.75-34.75 then use a 5 point initial stop and see if they can take em down. If a drop occurs rapidly of 5-6 points then TAKE PROFITS and let the markets re-set at the Hour One pivot for a second trade.

We would favor selling the BreakOut again today if that is the first Hour One pivot hit. If the High Five is clearly bullish then look to add 2-4 points to that high and sell there. Most likely we are going to be heading lower today and it may occur right off the opening without much chance to get short at the BreakOut.

As always be on the lookout for a Bear Ugly day off the opening. This occurs with some strong, bad news riddling the markets. We had seen the market sell off from the BreakDown on Tuesday and then reflex rally back into the close but that was something different. We stand aside on selling the BreakDown unless we have the full Bear Ugly scenario.

Value Area: 1,122.90 - 1,127.30
We are closing in the Value Area which is neutral. We saw prices holding above the VA all day yesterday with support coming in just above the top of the range. You can see how effective a tool this can be for reading the markets.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,125.25 - 1,126.25
No trade at this pivot today. Watch the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1121.00 for strong support. This is also right at the Pit Bull 10 Day Moving Average so we will have double support down there.

If the market sells off rapidly early to this area from a higher opening and early push up in prices then we may want to trade em down here on the buy side. Just watch the action and see how the High Five respond.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,134.75 - 1,133.75
Let's sell this sell pivot today on a move up here. Use a 5 point stop and watch for a fast move lower to take profits and reposition later into an Hour One pivot trade.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,121.70
Gradually we are closing in on the Pit Bull which means the market will either stage another rally to move away from it or the most likely scenario will be that the gap will close and we will have "Crossover" soon.

Once the prices move below the Pit Bull it should change the face of the markets a bit with the downside taking precendent over the action we have seen all of December and up til now.

Pro Trader's Action
A bit more caution is urged today as we are still not seeing the market respond to the TCF trade setups in a normal fashion. We are still coming off this huge up December Holiday period and waiting for more of a reaction to the downside to get the "Tug of War" going. Then we should see some nice larger ranges and more volatility.

Until then all we can do is survive and wait this period out. Look to grab 6 points on the TCF trade setups and be willing to cut trades a bit quicker that are not panning out. That is the way to keep your account cooking while we let the markets make their move.

Good luck today and let's see if we can't get a better range going today. Mohan