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[Dwer]

Sell any early rallies today for further downside to occur.

Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, January 13, 2004:
Buy 1125.25/ stopped out for 6 pts. loss

* Buy the BreakDown in the absence of any Bear Ugly news related items causing market to sell off.

Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.

The market got hit with selling on Tuesday mostly associated with the talk coming from Greenspan about the worldwide economical situation. Traders responded negatively to various comments and the S&P500 sold off sharply below the BreakDown opening up the Sell Mode.

We have discussed this "Market Force opening day" back in early December when the underlying Market Force indicators were ready to roll to the Sell Mode. We had never gotten that official "opening day" where we get a powerful sell off to set the tone for the new mode. This occured Tuesday and was evidenced by the inability of the BreakDown price at 1125.25 to hold the market up and instead see our buy trade get stopped out.

When we see the BreakDown get hit as the first Hour One pivot then we will look at the market and see if really strong, negative news is occuring. With market shaking news occuring we will usually see a gap down in the S&P500 prices off the open and the High Five go into a Bear Ugly mode. On such occasions our system will short the BreakDown and hold all day into the close.

Once in a while, especially after a long run up in prices, we will see the BreakDown fail to hold up and such was the case on Tuesday. However, our TCF system has demonstrated that the odds are usually that a BreakDown will hold up absent of Bear Ugly news. So today our buy at the B/D got stopped out.

We are now established in the Sell Market Force and will be watching for a continuation of that force or once again to see an aberration occur that would see prices rising further.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Our first goal lower on the downside is 1098.00 with different price levels along the way showing support and resistance. We will be watching for the market to first hold below 1128.75 as mentioned recently as a key number to establish the downside. Next is 1121.50, then 1118.00, 1113.00, 1108-9, 1103, 1100 even handle and then 1098.00.

For today we want to sell rallies especially on a higher opening and early move up. With this we would expect any BreakOut attempts to get hit with selling and we would resume the downside.

If the market opens lower and moves lower FIRST then we would expect the BreakDown Hour One pivot would hold up this time.

Let's try and stay on the sell side of the market on any flat to higher openings but if we get a fast run down lower early then we want to be buyers on such a move at the BreakDown.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: The overall idea of today is that early higher moves should continue to sell off to reach our goal mentioned above.

Sell the BreakOut if that is the first Hour One pivot hit. We will also look to sell the Sell Pivot target at 1127.50-28.50.

If prices take off to the downside early and we hit the BreakDown again as the first Hour One pivot then we will be buyers there looking to subtract 2-4 points if the High Five are especially bearish.

Value Area: 1,114.30 - 1,121.50
The ranges opened up some on Tuesday and that is a great sign as traders are re-entering the market after the December Holiday period.

Let's hope this keeps up. Trade above 1121.50 that falls back into the VA is bearish and holding below 1114.00 is especially bearish as we stretch to the goal lower mentioned on the "Today's Call and Briefing" section.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,114.00 - 1,115.00
No trade at this pivot today. Watch for 1109.75 for support below this at the -4.25 stop/pivot.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,128.50 - 1,127.50
Let's go ahead and sell this Sell Pivot target today and use a 5 pts. stop. If the market drops rapidly off this price after hitting it then take profits and wait for the next Hour One pivot to set up.

If it occurs AFTER the first hour then we can compare this Sell Pivot Target price to the BreakOut and use those numbers together to discover the best deal.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,119.40
We finally busted through the Pit Bull but ralllied slightly above it into the close on Tuesday. So we are at a CROSSOVER ALERT and will be looking for prices to move below the Pit Bull putting us in the "Sell Rallies" mode soon.

Pro Trader's Action
The Sell Mode on the Market Force indicators has opened up now and we should see some continued downside force starting to occur. We monitor daily our Market Force indicators to see if an aberration occurs which would create a temporary reversal of the force direction. In the currrent case a price move above 1128.75 and holding above that would throw the Market Force into aberration on the downside so we will be watching for that.

On today's action we are going to be looking to sell that area with the Sell Pivot and if we get that combined with a sell off from there it will serve as some confirmation for the downside.

Remember, an early, fast sell off should find support on the lows but we want to be open to a 2nd day powerful sell off also because of the length of time the market spent rallying through December.

Let's continue to be a bit cautious and willing to stand aside as this is only the 2nd week back from the New Year. Things appear to be getting on a nice trading roll so we should have larger ranges and more volatility to look forward too.

Good Luck today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan