Mohan 13/01/04
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Dwer,
Não leio atentamente o Mohan todos os dias, mas quando lhe dou alguma atenção, ele em 80% das ocasiões fala de uma queda no "intraday", algo que não se tem verificado.
É impressão minha ou ele não anda nada com a "mão quente"?
Um abraço,
Ulisses
Não leio atentamente o Mohan todos os dias, mas quando lhe dou alguma atenção, ele em 80% das ocasiões fala de uma queda no "intraday", algo que não se tem verificado.
É impressão minha ou ele não anda nada com a "mão quente"?
Um abraço,
Ulisses
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Mohan 13/01/04
Look for market to push a bit higher today and then sell off later in the session. CAUTION: A fast, early sell off without Bear Ugly news will continue to see prices rise off the early lows.
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, January 12, 2004:
No TCF setups occured today.
* Caution was urged selling the B/O as the NAZ was up +11 so we were looking for at least +2-4 pts higher to sell.
Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and thanks for joining in with us today on the Morning Call.
On our Headline Call for Monday which is based on our 18 proprietary indicators we were expecting the market to rise off the early lows on any early drops.
The market opened up about 2 points higher and sold off to find support at the previous days close at the 1119.90 area. From there the market just slowly drifted up with some slight pullbacks along the way. This was all done in another tight range day. However we are hopeful that the S&P500 ranges will be expanding soon and things will get a bit more volatile.
There was not much to say about Monday suffice that our overall Headline Call for higher prices did pan out.
We were looking to short the BreakOut but with the NAZ up +11 or more at times AND being a Monday which is the most bullish day of the week we felt it better to wait for at least 1126.00 to go short. The BreakOut price was 1124.00 and 1126.00 never got hit within our trade cut off time.
The clock moved past our cut off time for TCF trades at 1:30-2:00 est and so we abandoned the trade idea of going short for the day. We had a weak TRIN trading mostly above .90 and VXO was high trading above +.50 most of the day so we were anxious to nail a short but the quiet market just never gave us the opportunity.
We are going to once again look to be on the sell side today but with specific instructions about the days price activity arrangements.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Now here is what we are going to be focusing our Radar on today.
If the market opens up and takes off to the downside pretty agressively within the first hour or so then that will continue to be bullish for more upside movement off the lows today. The only thing that would change that would be if there was some very Bear Ugly news that threw the markets into a tailspin. We would then employ our Bear Ugly trading rules for that. This is NOT expected to occur today.
We are rather expecting that the markets will open relatively flat today and move higher "hanging up" near the highs a bit and signalling us to look to try and get short again today. This, in our view, would be the ideal setup for today.
What we need right now is for the market to CREATE MORE BULLS as there are too many Bears in place right now expecting lower prices.
This situation could also create a BREAKOUT BUY signal so we need to be careful and see how the High Five (tape) is setting up at the time of the BreakOut (if indeed that is the first Hour One pivot hit).
We are going to be on the lookout for a resumption of our underlying SELL Market Force indicators to kick in pretty soon. Now that we are over the Holiday "strait up" market situation we will be preparing for a large move lower to open up the downside. Right now that is not going to happen with all these bears expecting it so practically speaking the only way to change that is for a rally to ensue. Let's see how things go with this.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We want to be on the lookout for a BreakOut Buy trade to potentially occur today. This would come into play if we hit the BreakOut FIRST of the Hour One Pivots and at the time of the B/O we would look for a strong NAZ (up +12-15 or higher) and the Dow up but not over +50. We would then look for the TRIN to be below .80 and VIX down -.50 or lower. Then we will be ready to rock and roll the upside.
IF WE DO NOT SEE THIS OCCURING and the B/O is the first Hour One pivot hit then we need to look to get short at the BreakOut today.
If we head lower first and the BreakDown is the first Hour One pivot hit with this action occuring off the opening without any real early rally then we will be looking at the Buy side. Such an agressive early move to the downside will be overall bullis for the market today unless we have as mentioned a Bear Ugly market situation. You can review the Trading Handbook for more information on the Bear Ugly days and the criteria regarding those strong sell off days.
Value Area: 1,121.00 - 1,125.60
Holding below 1121.00 is going to be a Bearish sign for the market today. If we get short at the BreakOut with any luck and that works out then this should provide strong support here at the bottom of the VA at 1121.00.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,122.50 - 1,123.50
No Buy at this pivot today. Let's watch the 1118.25 (-4.25 stop/pivot) for support and see if we get the early drop or the prices pushing higher and "hanging up" near the highs before dropping. We can then use the numbers in this section to measure how far the prices could fall off the highs if we are not breaking out with bullish buy action.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,131.25 - 1,130.25
No trade at this target directly early in the opening session today but let's revisit that method we have used a few times in the past month or so where we watch the 1131.25 +4.25 or 1135.50 for prices to stall. We could look to go short there and could compare it to the BreakOut and the High Five to see if going short here is solid.
The expectation is that if we get the prices "hanging up" near the Highs scenario then this could be a good zone to go short...1132-35.00 type area.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,118.00
We are still buying larger drops that run down and test this area. A move lower of substantial power will challenge this area and run prices lower. We would then be on the lookout for the lower action below the Pit Bull as the mode changes to a sell rallies mode.
We would look for a "change in the weather" in terms of sentiment by seeing prices open higher, run higher and close near the lows instead of the current bullish "weather" where prices are opening flat to lower, moving lower and rising into the close.
Pro Trader's Action
Let's attempt to hit em again on the sell side for today watching for all the above criteria discussed.
Perhaps we could get some range expansion if the downside gets going but if we are seeing the early down moves occur then we have to keep staying on the long side if we get a TCF setup to do it with.
All the best of success today in your trading and I will see you in the action. Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, January 12, 2004:
No TCF setups occured today.
* Caution was urged selling the B/O as the NAZ was up +11 so we were looking for at least +2-4 pts higher to sell.
Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and thanks for joining in with us today on the Morning Call.
On our Headline Call for Monday which is based on our 18 proprietary indicators we were expecting the market to rise off the early lows on any early drops.
The market opened up about 2 points higher and sold off to find support at the previous days close at the 1119.90 area. From there the market just slowly drifted up with some slight pullbacks along the way. This was all done in another tight range day. However we are hopeful that the S&P500 ranges will be expanding soon and things will get a bit more volatile.
There was not much to say about Monday suffice that our overall Headline Call for higher prices did pan out.
We were looking to short the BreakOut but with the NAZ up +11 or more at times AND being a Monday which is the most bullish day of the week we felt it better to wait for at least 1126.00 to go short. The BreakOut price was 1124.00 and 1126.00 never got hit within our trade cut off time.
The clock moved past our cut off time for TCF trades at 1:30-2:00 est and so we abandoned the trade idea of going short for the day. We had a weak TRIN trading mostly above .90 and VXO was high trading above +.50 most of the day so we were anxious to nail a short but the quiet market just never gave us the opportunity.
We are going to once again look to be on the sell side today but with specific instructions about the days price activity arrangements.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Now here is what we are going to be focusing our Radar on today.
If the market opens up and takes off to the downside pretty agressively within the first hour or so then that will continue to be bullish for more upside movement off the lows today. The only thing that would change that would be if there was some very Bear Ugly news that threw the markets into a tailspin. We would then employ our Bear Ugly trading rules for that. This is NOT expected to occur today.
We are rather expecting that the markets will open relatively flat today and move higher "hanging up" near the highs a bit and signalling us to look to try and get short again today. This, in our view, would be the ideal setup for today.
What we need right now is for the market to CREATE MORE BULLS as there are too many Bears in place right now expecting lower prices.
This situation could also create a BREAKOUT BUY signal so we need to be careful and see how the High Five (tape) is setting up at the time of the BreakOut (if indeed that is the first Hour One pivot hit).
We are going to be on the lookout for a resumption of our underlying SELL Market Force indicators to kick in pretty soon. Now that we are over the Holiday "strait up" market situation we will be preparing for a large move lower to open up the downside. Right now that is not going to happen with all these bears expecting it so practically speaking the only way to change that is for a rally to ensue. Let's see how things go with this.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We want to be on the lookout for a BreakOut Buy trade to potentially occur today. This would come into play if we hit the BreakOut FIRST of the Hour One Pivots and at the time of the B/O we would look for a strong NAZ (up +12-15 or higher) and the Dow up but not over +50. We would then look for the TRIN to be below .80 and VIX down -.50 or lower. Then we will be ready to rock and roll the upside.
IF WE DO NOT SEE THIS OCCURING and the B/O is the first Hour One pivot hit then we need to look to get short at the BreakOut today.
If we head lower first and the BreakDown is the first Hour One pivot hit with this action occuring off the opening without any real early rally then we will be looking at the Buy side. Such an agressive early move to the downside will be overall bullis for the market today unless we have as mentioned a Bear Ugly market situation. You can review the Trading Handbook for more information on the Bear Ugly days and the criteria regarding those strong sell off days.
Value Area: 1,121.00 - 1,125.60
Holding below 1121.00 is going to be a Bearish sign for the market today. If we get short at the BreakOut with any luck and that works out then this should provide strong support here at the bottom of the VA at 1121.00.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,122.50 - 1,123.50
No Buy at this pivot today. Let's watch the 1118.25 (-4.25 stop/pivot) for support and see if we get the early drop or the prices pushing higher and "hanging up" near the highs before dropping. We can then use the numbers in this section to measure how far the prices could fall off the highs if we are not breaking out with bullish buy action.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,131.25 - 1,130.25
No trade at this target directly early in the opening session today but let's revisit that method we have used a few times in the past month or so where we watch the 1131.25 +4.25 or 1135.50 for prices to stall. We could look to go short there and could compare it to the BreakOut and the High Five to see if going short here is solid.
The expectation is that if we get the prices "hanging up" near the Highs scenario then this could be a good zone to go short...1132-35.00 type area.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,118.00
We are still buying larger drops that run down and test this area. A move lower of substantial power will challenge this area and run prices lower. We would then be on the lookout for the lower action below the Pit Bull as the mode changes to a sell rallies mode.
We would look for a "change in the weather" in terms of sentiment by seeing prices open higher, run higher and close near the lows instead of the current bullish "weather" where prices are opening flat to lower, moving lower and rising into the close.
Pro Trader's Action
Let's attempt to hit em again on the sell side for today watching for all the above criteria discussed.
Perhaps we could get some range expansion if the downside gets going but if we are seeing the early down moves occur then we have to keep staying on the long side if we get a TCF setup to do it with.
All the best of success today in your trading and I will see you in the action. Mohan
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Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
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